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2013 A Number Of Bad Stock Index Plunged A Shares Tend To Bear Bull Conversion

2013/12/8 10:48:00 40

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the opening price plunged more than 2%, and the Shanghai stock index plunged fiercely, which was rare in history.

According to the analysis, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx? ClassID=101112107108" > six bad margins < /a > led to a sharp fall in stock index.

> one: the CBRC's heavy punches to control the bank's financial products, bank shares plummeted

recently, the CBRC issued a notice entitled "regulating the investment operation of commercial banks (market area)", standardizing the investment operation of financial services, and preventing and eliminating the risk of commercial banks' financial management business.

According to the analysis, the new regulation has limited impact on the fundamentals of banks, and is conducive to the sustained and healthy development of bank financing business. However, the new regulation adds variables to the economic recovery and has a negative impact on bank stocks.

Two: Five Rules of the local state have been issued successively, Shenzhen two suite Shoufu or rose to 7% /p >

From April 1st to April 1st, Shenzhen will implement the new credit policy, raising the two unit down payment to 60%, to 70%.

The "two tax levy for 20% suites" will also be launched at the same time, "/p".

Three: CITIC Securities net profit has reached a six year low, brokerage stocks dive

CITIC Securities (market share bar trading point) announced its annual report. Its operating income in 2012 was 11 billion 694 million yuan, down 53.29% compared to the same period last year, and its net profit attributable to parent company was 4 billion 237 million yuan, down 66.31% compared with the same period last year.

This is also the lowest net profit of CITIC Securities since 2007.

Four: the central prohibition of alcohol consumption led to a downturn in liquor consumption.

"P >" the Ministry of Commerce "in February this year, a regular press conference figures show that since the introduction of the eight Central regulations and the requirement of frugal waste control, some high-end restaurants and high-end liquor sales have dropped significantly.

Five: the SFC releases Ping An 26 billion convertible bond analysis. It is said that the market ends or

previously, the market will consider Ping An financing as an important wind vane.

"If the SFC passes such a large amount of financing, other enterprises will have a great chance to follow up, which will further pressure the assets."

The market even cited data, according to last year's GEM (stock market trading point) IPO each household average less than 500 million yuan of financing, the China Ping An (stock market trading point) refinancing amount of more than 50 IPO.

There is a market voice, if the financing refinancing to open the gate again, then the A share market will end, and the chances of having market will not be too great.

> six: IPO restart the rumor and beat the long rally. /p >

a few days ago, there was a market rumor that the possibility of restarting IPO next month was very large. At present, more than 60 enterprises have received the approval of the listing, and the market has been discolored.

good one: five rows net profit 774 billion 600 million exceed expectation

The growth rate of the five p industries has slowed down compared with the previous year, but the profits are still considerable.

According to our reporter statistics, in 2012, the five major businesses achieved a net profit of 774 billion 600 million. In 2011, the figure was 674 billion 460 million, and the profit growth rate was close to 14.9%.

This growth exceeded market expectations.

The market predicted that the five largest state-owned banks net profit of 750 billion.

> good two: last week, the number of A shares opened a year for a new high holding account five litre .

the latest data disclosed by Zhong Deng company show that the number of new A stock accounts increased slightly last week, reaching a new high in one year. Meanwhile, the number of positions held up for four weeks has shown that investor confidence is growing.

three cycles show that A shares are at the bear bull conversion stage .

in fact, you may have overlooked such a phenomenon: when your eyes are focused on your feet, you can see stones and gravel everywhere. If you look at the distance, it may be a smooth road.

If there are no major emergencies, judging from the economic, policy and market cycles, the current domestic stock market is in the bear to cattle conversion stage, waiting for us may be a bull market that lasts 2 to 3 years.

from the perspective of economic and policy cycles, we are witnessing the arrival of a new round of prosperity.

Due to the improvement of marketization, industrialization and internationalization, the cyclical characteristics of China's economy since the beginning of the new millennium are becoming increasingly significant. The period of each cycle is roughly 4 to 5 years.

The policy cycle is marked by the change of government, usually covering two economic cycles. The policy cycle of tenure is often contrary to the economic cycle, that is, the policy is tight when the economy is high, otherwise the policy is loose.

"A href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx ClassID=101112107107 "> Five Year Plan < /a > and the government's macro regulation can not fundamentally change the trend of the economic cycle, but it still has an important impact on the economic operation and will play a decisive role at the critical time point.

From 1997 to 2002, under the impact of the financial crisis in Asia and Russia, China's economy was at a low ebb; in 2002, the new government succeeded, and after a period of wandering, the quarterly GDP bottomed out in the first quarter of next year, followed by a new round of rise until the four quarter of 2008 dropped to a low of 6.6%.

Since then, the economy has completed a round of ups and downs, and the fourth quarter growth of 7.9% may mean that the economy is stabilizing and will soon enter the next round up cycle.

from the market cycle, we have more reason to optimistic about the medium and long-term market.

Despite the rapid development of more than 20 years, China's stock market has made great progress, but there is still a big gap from the mature market, and there is considerable room for long-term growth.

As a barometer of economic life, the cycle performance of the domestic stock market is significantly different from that of the offshore market.

Usually bear market is longer, duration 4 to 5 years, the cumulative decline has been increasing year by year signs; bull market is relatively short, about two years, but a cumulative increase.

The second half of bear market usually corresponds to the initial or middle stage of economic boom, which includes investment culture and institutional factors.

Since the 90s of last century, investors have gone through three rounds of long-term bear market and bull market in the second round of P.

From 1993 to 1998, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 23% to 1100 points from 1427 points, followed by a rise in 1999 to 2001 and an increase of 90% in index. This period reflects more positive fiscal policy and global technology fever.

In 2005 2001, the index fell by 48% from 2230 points, which did not reflect the trend of economic recovery after 2003. In 2006 and 2007, the stock market could not turn a blind eye to the high growth economy, and the market rose by 350% under the catalysis of split share structure reform.

The bear market has fallen from 65% at 5450 in early 2008 to 1949 last year.

Although the bear market is less than a year from the previous round, the pessimists can think that another year will take a turn for the better. But the technology trend since the vertex of the Shanghai Composite Index 6124 shows that the long-term downward trend has undergone fundamental changes since last December 4th, and the rising channel is taking shape.

Taking into account the positive and positive political reforms and sound economic policies of the new government, the United States maintaining a moderate recovery, the gradual shrinking of the European economy and the fact that the emerging economies are still in good condition, we believe that the new bull market will be launched ahead of shocks and hesitation.

Personal estimate this year is expected to exceed 2800 points, next year up to 3500 points.

in terms of operational strategy, investors are advised to walk on two legs.

On the one hand, we should take advantage of the situation and make use of the current shock market and plate rotation to carry out short-term technical operation appropriately, focusing on the concept opportunities related to exports, foreign investment and independent brands.

On the other hand, according to the logical concept of "recovery", "pformation", "environmental protection" and "upgrading", we should arrange new energy and related equipment, environmental protection equipment and urban management system, consumer electronics and < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx ClassID= 101112107105" > green manufacturing appliances < /a > (market area) and other emerging manufacturing sectors, and layout modern logistics and pportation, education and cultural media (market area) and modern financial services sector.