November CPI Data Indicate Price Trend

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Ministry of macroeconomic development of the State Council Development Research Center, said that the price trend of China in November was generally stable. This is mainly due to the increase in factors that support the stabilization of food prices, especially the seasonal fluctuation factors of fresh vegetable prices, which will bring CPI down.

From the chain data that can reflect the latest situation of price changes, the price of fresh vegetables which had been affected by the abnormal weather quickly dropped generally. In November, the specific food prices in CPI were mixed with each other, but overall declined slightly. Country Statistics Bureau Yu Qiumei, a senior statistician of the city Department, analyzed that the price of vegetables in the whole country decreased by 3.8% compared with the average. However, the regional price movements were quite different: the northeast region was affected by the strongest snowfall since the winter, and in northwest parts of China or at low temperatures or rainy, the vegetable prices rose more frequently, while the price of vegetables in eastern, central and south western regions decreased generally.

From the monthly trend chart of CPI, the operation of CPI from 1 to November this year is basically stable, with little fluctuation. Most of the month CPI rose from 2% to 3%, and only in February, September and October, due to the Spring Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival consumption, CPI increased by more than 3% over the same period.

Experts generally believe that the current CPI growth rate of 3% up and down, from a historical point of view or an international perspective, is at a relatively moderate level relative to over 7.5% economic growth. Looking around the world, some emerging countries have been caught up in the dilemma of inflation and economic slowdown.

"The current price situation should be said to be a moderate rise. The current economic growth and money supply do not support the overall rapid rise in prices, which is still controllable." Wang Jun, Vice Minister of consultation and Research Department of China International Economic Exchange Center, said.

In the near future, the year-on-year increase of 2.6% and the stable price trend in the period from 1 to November have actually indicated that the target of price control of CPI increase by 3.5% will be successfully completed in the whole year, CPI.

Nevertheless, low income groups price The rise is still very sensitive. In the low income group, food and other necessities of life account for a relatively large proportion, and the ability to bear the related prices is weak. Experts suggest that while the price control targets achieve overall concern, we must attach great importance to the protection of major agricultural products supply and the regulation of prices. We should not relax vigilance because CPI data are in a mild controllable state.

Niu Li, director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Ministry of economic information of the state information center, predicts that CPI will remain at 3% in December. It is expected that the CPI will remain at around 2.6% in 2013, and it will be able to achieve the expected target of price regulation at the beginning of the year.

According to cow plough analysis, there are many factors to curb the excessive price rise: this year * s grain has been reaped a good harvest. Meanwhile, with the scale of farming being greatly improved, there will not be any big problems in pork prices. These are conducive to the stability of "big head" food prices in CPI.

Economists generally believe that China's grain production has achieved "ten consecutive increases" this year, and that grain prices have a stable foundation, which will also play an important supporting role in stabilizing the prices of other agricultural products. Secondly, the overwhelming majority of industrial products in China are in excess of demand, and the prices of industrial products are kept at a low level; and because of the steady growth of China's economic growth, the pressure of rising prices driven by demand is relatively small. In addition to the current prudent monetary policy, there are more sufficient conditions to maintain the overall level of prices.

But at the same time, Niu Li pointed out that there are some supporting factors for the future price rise. First, with the promotion of the reform of the national resources and environment prices, the resource products such as water, electricity, oil and natural gas tend to be priced in the market. The implementation of measures such as ladder price and non residents' over quota water consumption and electricity price increase will promote. CPI Rise; two, as the cost of labor rises, the price of service industry will continue to rise.

What is the price trend of China next year? Niu Li predicts that China's CPI growth may be larger than that of this year. However, the government has always attached great importance to price regulation, accumulated rich experience, coupled with the fact that economic growth will not be too fast, and monetary policy will remain stable.