2014: What Is China'S Economy Like?

< p > < strong > 2014: "keep moving forward steadily" has a new connotation < /strong > < /p >

After "P > 2013, the general keynote of economic work in 2014 was mentioned again," steady progress "is consistent, but Liu Yuanchun, vice president of the school of economics, Renmin University of China, said" different connotation ".

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< p > how to understand "stability"? Liu Yuanchun believes that 2014 will be more diversified.

He pointed out that since the new central government came into power, it emphasized the bottom line management and the interval regulation, and emphasized that the bottom line management should strive for a relaxed environment for macroeconomic stability and reform.

In the future, the government will decompose "stability" into a series of specific indicators, such as macroeconomic fluctuations can not be great, employment does not appear obvious deterioration, to resolve excess capacity, increase income and inflation can not be too high.

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< p > how to understand "Jin"? Liu Yuanchun explains, "not speed, but new connotation".

One is to promote structural adjustment through reform, and to maintain steady economic growth; the two is to no longer simply emphasize the growth and value of gross domestic product (GDP), but also emphasize quality and efficiency.

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< p > the latest prediction released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences shows that the GDP material increased by 7.5% in 2014.

Regarding this, Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and economic cooperation, believes that this belongs to the category of "stable" which can be realized and sustained.

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< p > he stressed that China's current economic growth still has a potential of 8.5% or higher, but taking into account the excessive growth will bring about repeated investment, overcapacity, inflation and other sequelae, so we must weaken the growth target and pursue more sustainable development.

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< p > Bai Ming pointed out that under the premise of controlling the overall growth of economic growth, the government will continue to increase the mode of pfer and structural adjustment, promote the development of the service industry, and promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry to the high-end. At the same time, the improvement of people's livelihood is emphasized.

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< p > < strong > innovation drive can solve excess capacity < /strong > /p >

< p > vigorously adjusting the industrial structure is one of the six major tasks of next year.

At present, a number of production schemes have been introduced to reduce production capacity to specific industries and enterprises.

In coal, iron and steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement and other industries, capacity is considered to be an important measure to reduce the risk of the industry.

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Wang Jianhui, deputy general manager of the securities research and development department, said P, from the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, we have achieved initial results in capacity production.

In November, the decline in industrial producer price index (PPI) continued to narrow, and the decline in the price of extractive industries played an important role.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/pioneer/" > National Statistical Bureau < /a > data show that in November the average daily output of crude steel in China hit the lowest level since this year, and the growth rate of fixed investment in coal mining and washing, oil and natural gas extraction also began to fall in November.

However, output of refined copper and raw aluminium still hit a record high.

"Some of the large coal companies I have met are struggling, and their incomes can only keep their daily expenses, waiting for the industry to get warmer."

Wang Jianhui said the problem of excess capacity is still serious.

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< p > the central economic work conference put forward several measures to resolve overcapacity and adjust the industrial structure: first, to promote technological innovation, product innovation, organizational innovation, business model innovation and market innovation; this is the fundamental way out; two, emphasize market competition, promote excess production and eliminate; three, increase standards and law enforcement; four, promote industrial optimization and upgrading, and develop strategic emerging industries; five, take enterprises as the main body, and the government provide intellectual property protection and talent mechanism for enterprises to innovate, and promote innovation.

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< p > < strong > enterprises should "go out" and rely on the government. < /strong > < /p >

He Zhiyong, Party Secretary of Datang International Power Generation Co Beijing Gao Jing thermal power plant, said in an interview with an international business daily reporter that speeding up the pace of "going out" has promoted cooperation between power plants and power projects in Southeast China such as Russia, Burma and other power plants in P.

In recent years, in the process of "going out", the power plant has brought the developed power equipment and power generation technology abroad, and established links with the local power grid and worked out reasonable pricing. This undoubtedly plays a role in promoting the development of the high well power plant, and the risks involved can not be ignored.

"Policy risks brought about by changes in foreign policies and situations are important factors affecting our foreign trade activities.

For example, in recent years, the political situation in Southeast Asia has been unstable. Some countries' policies of foreign trade and economic cooperation have also been changed due to the change of government. This leads to some power companies in our factory and the country have to renegotiate the established cooperation plans and relocate cooperation projects.

Sometimes, the new government will not even recognize our cooperation agreements with the enterprises of the country, which will bring losses to both sides.

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< p > therefore, the demand of Datang electric power coincides with the policy and service guidance proposed by the central economic work conference for "going out" of enterprises.

"We hope that the government can give more support to enterprises, help us coordinate with local governments in foreign trade activities, and enable enterprises to" go out "more steadily.

He Zhiyong said.

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< p > < strong > the efficiency of financial operation is expected to be enhanced < /strong > /p >

< p > "the renminbi has been revalued, and our remaining advantage is gone."

Chen Yanling, senior manager of Shanghai permanent import and Export Co., Ltd. said that the cost advantage, fierce price competition and the appreciation of RMB make the competitive advantage of enterprises weaker and weaker.

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< p > the central economic work conference pointed out that we should promote the marketization of interest rates and the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the efficiency of financial operation and enhance the capability of serving the real economy.

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Guo Tianyong P, director of the China banking research center, said in an interview with an international business daily reporter that establishing the marketization mechanism of exchange rate can promote the exchange rate to be at a reasonable level.

The central bank should speed up the formation mechanism of exchange rate marketization by gradually liberalized the range of volatility.

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< p > speeding up financial reform is also significant for the construction of China (Shanghai) pilot free trade zone.

U Battle, chairman of the US Fortune Group and President of the US China Economic and Trade Promotion Association, said that a big bottleneck for the creation of international shipping centers and international trade centers is capital settlement.

Promoting the reform of the financial sector, promoting cross border settlement and investment of capital, and promoting the convertibility of RMB capital account are the imminent choice of Shanghai FTA pilot area.

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< p > with the rapid expansion of the scale of foreign exchange reserves, Wen Bin, director of macroeconomic research at the Bank of China and deputy editor in chief of international finance research, said that RMB capital account convertibility should be speeded up, so that the exchange rate could achieve a wider sense of equilibrium, and that more investment channels could be opened to achieve two-way opening and flow, so as to reduce the pressure on foreign exchange reserves and accelerate the internationalization process of RMB.

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< p > < strong > guard against local debt risk < /strong > < /p >

For the first time this year, the central economic work conference (P) clearly identified "prevention and control of debt risks" as a major task for the whole year.

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Since P last year, the issue of government a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > debt > /a "has attracted wide attention, especially the local debt problem.

Analysts said that the scale of local debt and the invisible debt outside the control would pose an incalculable risk to many areas such as the economy.

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Huang Yanfen, Professor of public administration at Renmin University of China, said that local government debt mainly consists of local financing platforms and "city investment bonds", which are issued by urban investment and construction companies, mainly for urban infrastructure construction projects. The two forms of debt are not within the budgetary constraints of local governments, and most of them are secured by land. P

"Once the land or real estate market fluctuates, there is risk in debt."

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Liu Shangxi, deputy director of the Finance Science Research Institute of the Ministry of finance, said that it is very necessary to put forward the precautionary measures to raise the responsibility and risk consciousness separately by putting forward the prevention and control of debt risks separately. P

Because the debt problem is related to the banking industry horizontally, the debt problem is easy to trigger systemic risk, which is related to the county, city, province and the central government.

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< p > November 2012, February of November 2012, the Audit Commission conducted an audit of the government debt situation at 36 local governments since 2011.

The results show that by the end of last year, the balance of government debt at 36 local governments reached 3 trillion and 850 billion yuan, an increase of 12.94% over 2010.

In the second half of this year, the Audit Commission opened a national census of local government debt, and the result has not yet been announced.

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< p > < strong > continuously improving the level of opening up > /strong > /p >

< p > the enterprises that have initially enjoyed the benefits brought about by opening up are eagerly looking forward to the details of the central economic work conference which will bring greater dividends.

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< p > as a member of China (Shanghai) pilot Free Trade Zone, recently, a number of LCD screens worth about 2000000 US dollars have been pferred from Yangshan Bonded Port area to Waigaoqiao Bonded Logistics Park in Shanghai Meng Tong Logistics Co., Ltd.

Unlike previous customs supervision of vehicle pportation, the company participated in the pilot test of self pport test in Shanghai one free trade zone and three tickets for customs clearance.

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< p > results, the delivery time of goods was reduced from 5~6 hours to 3~4 hours.

According to Xu Xu, manager of the company's operations department, the traditional customs clearance mode must wait for customer data and invoices to arrive. Therefore, the goods will stay in the port area for a long time, and the cost of the port enterprises in the first 10 months of this year will reach 280 thousand yuan.

"The new regulatory mode has been extended, and the cost of staying in port can basically be zero."

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Hangzhou Hui Neng science and Technology Co., Ltd., "P", mainly engaged in the development, production and sale of high-tech products such as electronics and software, is still looking forward to it.

Shen Haojing, a research assistant, said the western market has always been a virgin land.

An order from Kazakhstan during the Asia Europe Expo this year has allowed them to see the potential for development in the West and even in the Central Asian market. The increase in border opening and the formation of the new Silk Road Economic Belt concept allowed them to see the possibility of expanding westward.

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< p > the central economic work conference put forward that we should focus on making the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources, deepen the reform of the economic system, and strive to make substantial progress in important areas and key links.

This makes the enterprise full of expectation.

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Lu Wei, vice president of Guangdong Lin'an logistics group, hopes that the logistics industry can break through the local protection problems that have been plaguing him before reaching the goal of purifying the market through its own "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp "market" /a "P" construction.

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< p > originally, Lu Wei's enterprise had planned to build a logistics park in another city, but the land needed approval from the local government. As a result, the local government proposed that the employment problem of a local unit must be solved, and the enterprise finally gave up the plan.

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P and Cheng Xu, general manager assistant of Beijing, said that the brand is recognized as a time-honored brand but still suffers from infringement in different regions.

Recently, the company has filed a suit for brand infringement in some place, and the local government has also gone to Beijing for several times to investigate, but it has not yet reached a final conclusion.

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< p >, therefore, whether it is the the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee central economic work conference which just closed, its release of the "reform of market supervision system and the improvement of market price determination" signals Cheng Xu to see more hope and feel the sincerity of the government's decentralization of power to the market.

"The local working mechanism and administrative process will be further streamlined.

After all, time is directly linked to production costs for enterprises. "

Cheng Xu said.

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< p > < strong > attracting investment will be more "pragmatic" < /strong > < /p >.

< p > "what investors consider most is the issue of return on investment."

Xin Shoudong, government affairs manager of the old castle management consulting (Beijing) Limited, told the International Commercial Daily reporter that compared with the simple preferential policies, enterprises need more legal environment to promote their fair competition.

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< p > the central economic work conference proposed to create a stable, pparent and fair investment environment and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors.

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Luo Songshan, director and researcher of the Strategic Research Office of the Investment Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission of the national development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said that with the gradual weakening of the traditional advantages such as cost and resources, local investment and investment should be changed: the promotion of investment by the people with super national treatment will become more pragmatic according to the need to select capital.

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< p > > how to choose capital? Luo Songshan suggests that, first, the local government should determine the location of the industry; the two is to select suitable enterprises, not to come; three, facilitation services should run through "investment" and "post investment".

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"P", deputy director and researcher of the Institute of foreign investment and cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, added that the direction of attracting foreign investment in China in the future will need to pay more attention to improving social service capabilities, including investment in hardware and social security, talent and other software inputs.

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Less than P, it is recommended that attracting more capital to swim around "big crocodile" requires more small and medium-sized enterprises to give foreign companies and local enterprises more equal status. The aim is to form a more stable and lasting driving force for enterprises in the local economy.

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< p > < strong > expanding consumption has a new bright spot < /strong > < /p >

< p > the central economic work conference proposed that we should build a long-term mechanism to expand domestic demand and strive to increase consumption demand.

In recent years, the internal demand and the consumption level of the residents have been rising, and the development of our enterprises has also benefited from it.

In an interview with the international business daily, a person in charge of a construction group said that with the increasing demand for environmental protection products and traffic facilities, their companies are gradually strengthening the construction of infrastructure facilities such as sewage treatment facilities, bridges and highways in Beijing, promoting the development of the new city of Tongzhou and the satellite cities around Beijing, gaining the implementation power and financial support of many projects, and effectively improving the company's business level and influence, and gained a lot of experience from it.

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< p > commerce minister Gao Hucheng told the media recently that the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods has slowed down compared with last year, but there are still bright spots in the consumer market, such as the growth of gold, silver jewelry, household appliances and automobile sales in the 1~10 months.

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< p > Cao Shumin, Dean of the Telecommunications Research Institute of the Ministry of industry and telecommunications, said that the consumption of information service platforms such as e-commerce and public services based on information and communication technology has increased rapidly in recent years, which has injected new impetus to information consumption, provided new market space, and formed a new paction mode to promote sustained and stable growth of information consumption.

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< p > data from Alibaba show that in 2013, Tmall's "double eleven" shopping carnival was trading at 35 billion 19 million yuan a day.

According to the statistics of the Beijing Municipal Commercial Commission on behalf of the 21 Household electrical appliance enterprises in Beijing, the largest paction volume of "double eleven" has exceeded 22 million yuan.

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