India Cotton Arrival Slow Price May Rise

　　 cotton First three months of the year India The slow arrival rate of new cotton has led the market to worry that cotton may rise like an onion during the general election, adding new headaches to the ruling party.

In recent parliamentary elections, the price of onion has soared in just a few months. 360%. is expected to record a record of 37 million 500 thousand cotton production in October from the beginning of the current cotton year. But in the first three months, the number of goods arrived was only 10 million packages, compared with the average quantity of goods arrived in the past year by 12 million 500 thousand packs.

Analysts say the number of goods arriving this year will be reduced by 20-25%. If this trend continues, the price may rise sharply. Usually, October -2 is the peak of arrival. Under such circumstances, 27 million 500 thousand packages (170 kg / bag) must be delivered to the market in the next 75 days. This seems somewhat difficult.

During the last 4 months, cotton prices were between 38000 and 42000 roubles /candy. Analysts expect cotton prices to remain at a stretch for at least a month, and prices will rise sharply as demand grows. The textile industry needs about 27 million packs a year, and the remaining cotton exports are mainly exported to China. The export volume is between 700-1000 bales.

Cotton planting area was 8 million 600 thousand hectares in 2000-01, and now it is extended to 11 million 600 thousand hectares. The output of cotton increased from 14 million packs to 33 million 400 thousand packs in 2011-12 years, and 35 million 300 thousand bags in 2013-14 years. This year's planting area is maintained at 11 million 600 thousand hectares, but the output is expected to be 37 million 500 thousand bags. In 2011, due to textile industry Complained about not buying cotton, so the government banned cotton exports. In the 2011-12 and 2012-13 years, although the quantity of goods arrived was not shown, the output increased to 36 million 700 thousand and 36 million 500 thousand packs respectively.

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Dhiren Sheth, President of India Cotton Association, said that India's cotton production is expected to be no less than 37 million 875 thousand bales this year, and its consumption may be about 30 million packs. The excess cotton is about 13 million 700 thousand packs. India's annual export of 2013-14 cotton is expected to be high. Although the planting area is not expected to exceed 2012-13 cotton year, timely rain is expected to increase the yield per unit area.

He said that in the next 2013-14 years, world cotton production is expected to exceed world cotton consumption. Despite the delay in individual countries, cotton picking in the northern hemisphere is basically over, with output estimated at 25 million 600 thousand tons, down 1 million 200 thousand tons from last year. Cotton planting area decreased by 1 million hectares from last year to 32 million 800 thousand hectares, and the average yield per unit area decreased to 781 kg / ha.

In the 2014-15 year, world cotton consumption is estimated at 23 million 800 thousand tons, an increase of 2% over the previous year. Consumption in 2014-15 years is also expected to increase by 3% to 24 million 600 thousand tons. In the past 2013-14 years and 2014-15 years, consumption and expectations in China were lower than those in the previous four years, 2013-14 years to 8 million tons, and 2014-15 years to 7 million 800 thousand tons.

On the other hand, consumption in India and Pakistan is expected to increase in 2013-14 and 2014-15 years. In the 2013-14 years, the consumption of India is estimated at 5 million 100 thousand tons, which is 12% higher than the average consumption of 4 million 500 thousand tons in the previous four years.

In 2014-15 years, consumption in India is expected to increase by 7% compared with 5 million 500 thousand tons in the current year. The average consumption of Pakistan in the first four years is 2 million 300 thousand tons. In the 2013-14 years, the average consumption of 2 million 500 thousand tons is expected to increase by 8%, and 2014-15 years to 2 million 600 thousand tons. World cotton consumption is expected to grow at a minimum this year and next year, and the increase in cotton inventories will suppress international cotton prices.