2014 Signs: The End Of China's Financial Market

　　 Signs have been shown

The Chinese miracle is built under the authoritarian system, through banks, Stock market The bond market and so on quickly gather all kinds of funds to large projects, and build infrastructure in the shortest time. The expressway network across the country is built in almost ten years, and the high-speed railway network is built to half. In the shortest time, a large scale leading enterprise in the industry is built to compete internationally. Huang Renyu, a historian, believes that Chinese people who do not carry out numeral management are very concerned about external numbers, such as the top three international industries and the top 500 in the world.

The authority system is challenged and the challenges come from all aspects. In recent two years, the attention to scale has given rise to quality and cost, and the haze of the sky has made the day like night, and those who give up profits have to consider the cost of life that the extensive economy needs to pay. The collapse of a large number of people, such as Liu Zhijun, makes people peek at the huge cost of corruption behind investment. This is a key factor for the debt rate to rise and the quality of assets to drop and no one is responsible. Concentrating resources on major events left behind serious sequelae while creating miracles. The efficiency of large enterprises has declined, and private enterprises in the manufacturing sector have been driven to a dead end. The reason why China's economy has continued for 30 years is due to the marketization of three words. Now, in order to scale up the market, it has betrayed its beliefs.

It is impossible for policy makers to maintain the investment led economic miracle under the authority system. Fundamental conditions have changed dramatically.

The high debt that comes with high investment makes enterprises unload. At the same time investment growth and asset quality decline, these inefficient assets bring more liabilities, rather than profit growth.

Contrary to the official version of the entrepreneur's confidence index, the entrepreneurs I saw are not the best ones in addition to IT games, Internet finance, and unique technological advantages. How about 2014? I don't know. 2015 is too far away. Most entrepreneurs have already emigrated or are doing immigration. Perhaps the HSBC's purchasing managers' index, which focuses on small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, reflects the fact that most Chinese entrepreneurs feel more truer. In January, the PMI initial value fell to 49.6, falling to its lowest level in 6 months. It is expected that the first quarter of China's economic growth will slow down further than the fourth quarter of last year. Rising labor costs and overcapacity and falling product prices have become an unbearable pain. Those who stand and speak without pain will blame entrepreneurs for not preparing for the winter ahead of time. Why not upgrade their products and not build their own brands? Have you heard one thing? In the field of ineffective protection of intellectual property rights and Shanzhai style, innovation is seeking death, and no innovation is waiting for death.

　　 Listed company It is usually regarded as a "draft company" with outstanding performance and special care. It often has extra income from financial subsidies. The financial report of listed companies is the most optimistic report.

In April 27th last year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange released the report of the Shanghai Stock Exchange listed companies in 2012. The statistics show that the weighted average earnings per share, net assets per share, net cash flow from operating activities per share, and net assets yield of 954 listed companies in Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2012 are 0.55 yuan, 4.05 yuan, 1.29 yuan and 13.53% respectively. Compared with 2011, earnings per share were basically flat, net assets per share and net cash flow from operating activities increased by 10.36% and 30.31% respectively, while net assets yield decreased by 9.74%. In May 6th of that year, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued an empirical analysis report on the 2012 annual report of listed companies. In 2012, the operating income of Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed companies increased slightly, and net profit declined. Excluding the financial sector, the net assets yield of listed companies also gradually declined, from 11.86% in 2010 to 8.43% in 2012, down 3.43%.

Inventory and asset liability levels of listed companies have further improved. Data show that Financial industry It is the pillar of the A share market. In 2012, 52 companies, including banks, insurance, brokerages and other financial stocks, accounted for 2% of the total listed companies, with a net profit of 1 trillion and 90 billion yuan, accounting for 56.77% of the total net profit of Listed Companies in 2012, and the net profit of 16 listed banks reached 1 trillion and 30 billion yuan. Excluding the above financial stocks, the net profit of A share listed companies was 834 billion yuan, down 10.99% compared to the same period last year, and then eliminated the real estate industry's net profit of about 190 billion, down 19% compared to the same period last year. In the era of intellectual success, the education industry should be good. Chinese students have made great contributions to American universities to get rid of the debt trap. Unfortunately, backward education and harsh competition have made the education industry unbearable. It has become the biggest decline in the performance of listed companies, which has dropped by 1511.62% compared with the same period last year, earning -0.29 yuan per share.

Industries such as finance, which have seen huge profits rise, are not as bright as they are. By the end of the 3 quarter of 2013, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks was 563 billion 600 million yuan, and the non-performing loan ratio was 0.97%. According to a report released by Asset Management Co, the number of new non-performing loans increased by more than 5% in 2013, and the non-performing loan ratio in the banking sector will reach 1%~2%. Banking stocks are generally broken, the threshold for acquiring bad assets is reduced, and the rate of bad debts is rising is a common phenomenon.

The rising bad debt rate and high financial profits indicate that the economy is at the edge of the bubble. The real economy is becoming more and more difficult. The European and American manufacturing industries are returning to the world. Cook, who is famous for controlling the cost of the industrial chain, has gradually moved the apple production line back to the United States. China's financiers and entrepreneurs are killing each other in the mire of usury. A country with large population in the process of industrialization, a country with a large number of laborers without systematic training, the hollowing out of manufacturing industry ahead of time is not the gospel.

The miracle of economic miracle is no exception.

The Chinese government is pushing ahead with reform to cope with the predicament. But those who hope to witness China's political miracle after China's economic miracle will be disappointed in the next ten years. In order to deal with widespread dishonesty and deal with "no decree of Zhongnanhai", China's power will be more concentrated compared with the previous ten years, and the reform will be carried out with political authority. The recent bungshop incident shows that China is still a pre modern country, still in the Bismarck era, and any reformer can only bow to this soil.

Recently, the core of China's power is driving hurricanes. Anti-corruption storm In order to establish a credit system by reforming the economic structure and changing the political ecology and overthrowing some privileges, the best result is that China enters a wise and powerful political era. The worst result is the reopening of the late Qing Dynasty and the runaway control of power. In view of the current concentration of resources, the probability of such a situation is relatively low.

The economic reform is twists and turns. Despite the most powerful determination, the consideration of consequences and the desire for soft landing will eventually become a realistic choice.

Economic policymakers are prepared to be sound. monetary policy However, when the benchmark interest rate rose sharply, the central bank had to intervene. In January 21st, it released 255 billion yuan liquidity by reverse repurchase, and 23 yuan reverse repurchase 120 billion yuan, putting 40 billion yuan in cash, equivalent to a direct reduction of the deposit reserve ratio. This is a compromise under the pressure of reality. The financial structure has been out of balance until the end of the middle age.

It is hoped that there will be a large-scale debt default in China and people who have built financial risks to wash and sleep. This is unlikely to happen in China. The trader is full of worries and full of paternal love, protecting local debts and big business debts.

No matter politics or economy, shock therapy is not allowed in Chinese dictionaries. Reform is a gradual process. This process is ten years, twenty years, there will be repeated in the middle.

To be sure, China's economic miracle is gradually disappearing and replaced by its normal growth rate. The growth of 7.5% is not enough. This is the data acceptable to all parties and the price of reform.