Basic Analysis Of Apparel Textile Industry In 2014

< p > main data points: 13 December, < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > dress < /a > and jewelry terminal retail have all been restored. The retail sales volume and retail sales volume of 100 retail enterprises increased by 5% and 3.4% compared with the same period last year, respectively, which rose by -7.3 and +1.4 percentage points over the 12 years, and the export growth rate dropped in December.

In January 14, the average price of gold rose 1.3% and 1.5% respectively from the previous month, and the average price of cotton fell by 0.4%. The average price of cotton increased by 3.9%, and the average price difference between inside and outside cotton increased 7% to nearly 4800 yuan / ton.

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< p > A stock company tracking: because consumption has not yet been restored, and is affected by online sales, late winter, warm winter and other factors, the operation of the four quarter is generally not as good as the three quarter.

During the Spring Festival Golden Week, the sales volume of national retail and catering enterprises increased by 13.3% over the same period last year (the growth rate of Spring Festival in February 13 was 14.7%).

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< p > Meng Jie: continued double-digit growth in December.

In December, the direct sales terminal was almost the same as that in November, but it still has a drop in sales. The sales growth rate in December is expected to reach more than 20%, which is generally lower than that in the first three quarters. The overall growth rate of Semir is slightly lower than that of the first three quarters of the year. Semir's growth rate of Semir has increased by 20%. In November, the implementation capacity of winter clothing has declined. However, there is a certain increase in the number of shipments shipped over the same period last year. AOKANG: Q4 terminal retail sales are still falling at 10-20%, and the two agents in Hong Kong and Taiwan have been reduced (tens of millions of revenue is reduced), and the decline in the income of the report is still larger. YOUNGOR: December clothing returned a year-on-year decrease compared with that of last month. Sales in the fourth quarter were slightly better, mainly due to new product development and sales promotion (average 20 percent off, slightly lower than in previous years).

Yarn dyed and shirt orders have been discharged to the end of Q1.

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< p > Hong Kong stocks and overseas companies: I.T declined by 6% in the same quarter as the end of November, and retail sales and discounts had not been improved; the sales growth of an Li Fang 13Q4 slowed to 10% and the same store continued to grow by a single digit; the year-on-year decline in XTEP 14Q3 orders continued to narrow to the low single digit; Daphne Daphne's same store narrowed to 5.4%, with 50 stores closed throughout the year and 10% down the same store.

Coach13Q4 China's revenue growth is over 25%; Richemont13Q4's mainland revenue is declining; LVMH's wrist watch brand HUBLOT will perform the same price as the mainland and Hongkong; the Uniqlo parent company will be landing on H-shares in the form of HDR in March 5th; Lululemon declined to the median figure as early as the beginning of February.

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< p > trend review: in the past 14 years, the ranking of the industry is rising and falling, but it has outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and the brands are mostly in decline.

1, the second half of the month (16-31) was the highest in the industry and the highest in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and the majority of the brands rose. Caro, Lao Fengxiang and Pathfinder led to a slight decline. Only Lilai and seven wolves fell slightly. Manufacturing companies also rose more frequently (Jia Linjie and Weixing LED); H shares < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_f.asp" > brand > /a > category fell most (BELLE, Daphne, Li bang and Prada led the decline), and the key manufacturing industries also fell.

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< p > Investment Strategy: the fundamentals of the industry around the beginning of the year are still relatively dull, and most of the companies' operation in the four quarter to date is slightly lower than expected. At this point, the industry is expected to be hovering around the whole market. Only the relevant stocks of the Internet and media concepts (Pathfinder He Jialin Jay) and the companies with good performance (old Feng Xiang and keno) have a breakthrough.

Looking at the downside risk of demand and valuation in the past 14 years, at the same time, due to the continuous promotion of online and offline strategy, some companies continue to see new growth points, and some companies face a certain base of recovery.

It is suggested that companies with active layout, online, offline, and retail capabilities should be selected for a long time to grasp the company that basically touches recovery and the related enterprises of state-owned enterprise reform.

We need to combine the valuation, the rhythm of performance recovery and the promotion of events.

In the short term, we have made recommendations on the catalyst for the Pathfinder. The first quarter performance expectations of Lao Fengxiang and keno are relatively clear and selective.

The safety margin of Fu Anna, LAN Zi and Mei Bang is relatively high, waiting for the growth of performance to be clear, timing and timing to be grasped. According to a quarterly report, Luo Lai and Mori Mako will grasp the situation.

In the first quarter of the manufacturing industry, the safety margin of Lu Tai was mainly high.

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< p > risk hint: economic slowdown affects terminal consumption; external demand is not strong enough to affect a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > export < /a >; cost increase affects profitability.

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