The Global Financial Market Is Still Enveloped By Many Risks.

After the Spring Festival, the world Finance The market is still enveloped by many risks. Old problems are intertwined with new ones, and old risks are superimposed with new ones. Sovereign debt risk is still the main cause of global financial fragility.

According to reports, Li Yang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said recently that the global financial crisis, which began in 2007, has not entered the past, but has entered a new stage. Reform is the only way out of the crisis.

According to Li Yang's analysis, from the perspective of the developed economies, the most difficult time of the crisis has passed, but the basic factors that have caused the crisis have not disappeared. More importantly, many extraordinary measures have been taken in dealing with the crisis. These extraordinary measures have also increased the burden of recovery while preventing the deterioration of the crisis, making the recovery process complicated and confusing.

"The direction of economic development in developed economies is seriously biased towards consumer orientation. The economic structure is highly dependent on the service sector, and the manufacturing industry has been hollowed out." Li Yang said that judging whether the crisis is going to be past depends on whether the economic development pattern in the real economy is biased and the distortion of the economic structure is not solved.

Li Yang said that the crisis was initially a financial crisis, with a very high leverage ratio. Deleveraging is a necessary way to rescue the crisis. Now deleveraging has not been completed and is still improving in a certain sense.

"The global crisis is not over yet, and the second is emerging economies and developing countries." Li Yang said that there was a phenomenon at the beginning of the crisis. On the one hand, the economy of the developed economies was very bad. On the other hand, the economic development of the emerging economies and developing countries was very good, so that there was a concept called "double speed derailment". The two countries had two speed and derailed. But at present, the crisis has entered the second stage, the developed economies have stabilized, and the emerging economies have begun to crisis.

Since 2008, the insufficient level of global demand has led to a decline in import demand of developing countries, resulting in a substantial reduction in the external surplus of export oriented emerging economies, which means that the external economies of emerging economies are tightening. Against this background, the emerging economies either absorb foreign financing or make up for the lack of liquidity from the outside through internal financing, which leads to a general increase in the leverage of emerging market economies from the balance of payments or domestic economic sectors. When the Federal Reserve started to withdraw from the Q E program, the slowdown in economic growth and tight global financial situation also led to further deterioration of debt risk.

In addition, according to Bloomberg data, after the total debt issuance in 2013 dropped from 7 trillion and 600 billion US dollars in 2012 to US $7 trillion and 430 billion, the G-7 plus the 11 largest economies in Brazil, Russia, India and China will have almost the same size as 2013 in 2014. After the interest is charged, the debt refinancing scale of the 11 countries will increase by about 712 billion US dollars to 8 trillion and 100 billion US dollars in 2014. At present, global bond yields begin to rebound from record lows, which will inevitably lead to higher borrowing costs and risk of debt crisis, which is a very important manifestation of global financial fragility in the 2014.

　 China faces five outstanding problems

When it comes to China's economy, Li Yang said that since 2009, China's economy has entered a new stage, that is, the rapid growth stage, showing five outstanding problems:

Slowing down. Although the speed of 7.5% and 7.6% is quite high now, this is down from the 10% high growth rate, and the impact of two or three percentage points is quite large. "It is estimated that the impact will take several years to eliminate and then enter the normal stage of rapid growth." But the change of this speed has not been explained very well at home and abroad.

Real estate issues. Li Yang said: "entity. Economics At the level of real estate, I notice no one will talk about it, but everyone knows it is a big problem. Li Yang predicts that after the start of the national real estate registration system in June this year, besides the issue of high housing prices, the problem of housing surplus will also come to light. "This problem is very prominent now, and the financial sector is preparing for it."

Overcapacity problem. Li Yang said that overcapacity is already a "cancer". The speed of economic growth does not depend on investment, and when investment comes up, it leads to more capacity overproduction. This is the entanglement of the system.

Financial problems. Li Yang said that the developed countries are wide currency, tight credit and low interest rates, while China's finance is wide currency, high interest rate, difficult loans and high loans. These phenomena are absurd together, forming the reality of China's financial industry today. China's financial system must be operated and cannot be adjusted by policy, because policy adjustment can not solve deep-seated problems.

The problem of local government debt. Li Yang believes that China's overall local government debt is not a problem, but in some areas and local areas, it is a big problem and must be prepared.

"The crisis deepens to such a degree that the root causes are problems in the real economy. Therefore, the fundamental solution to the crisis is reform." Li Yang said, which country has the most profound understanding of its own problems, the most complete reform strategy, the greatest commitment to reform and the most significant effect. Which country will take the lead in the future?

　　 Debt risk is still threatening global finance.

According to reports, according to IM F, in 2014, the total debt of the developed economies amounted to $50 trillion and 950 billion, an increase of US $2 trillion and 320 billion over the same period last year, and the debt ratio of the developed economies was 108.32%, up 0.66 percentage points from the same period last year. The debt risk is still plaguing the developed economies.

First, the US debt problem has been temporarily alleviated. The US Treasury report shows that the fiscal deficit in the US fiscal year 2013 was US $680 billion, a cut of US $410 billion compared to US $1 trillion and 90 billion in the previous fiscal year. This is the first time the US government has reduced its deficit to below US $1 trillion in five years. This is mainly due to the rise in the US fiscal revenue to the record high level after the US auto reduction plan and the tax rate rise. Although the deficit has decreased, it is still at a high level, and the fiscal deficit has fallen to 4.1% of G DP, below 6.8% in 2009 and 10.1% in the year of 2012, still higher than the 1.2% to 3.5% level in the first seven years of the financial crisis. Considering that the US federal government debt has exceeded 17 trillion US dollars and the US Treasury debt rate is as high as 105%, the withdrawal of the Q E policy and the reduction of treasury bonds or mortgage bonds will result in the contraction of global financial market liquidity.

Two, European debt still risks potential risks. Judging from the current EU economic performance, the economic imbalance among Member States has hidden dangers for the integration of the latter fiscal alliance, and the shadow of the European debt crisis is still lingering. Public debt in Spain and Italy is too large to be fully accepted by the euro zone aid mechanism. Spain has made great progress, but because of its low starting point, the country still needs to make more efforts. The direct pressure of Italy on fiscal and external imbalances is relatively small. However, the lack of progress in improving productivity structural reform is still a long-term problem. Therefore, the next fiscal alliance and banking alliance still face many challenges.

Three, Japan's debt financing pressure is rising. At present, the reform of Japanese government has not played a fundamental role in solving structural imbalance. The structural imbalance is manifested in the following aspects: on the one hand, the private sector has a surplus of savings; on the other hand, it will absorb these excess savings with huge fiscal deficits, which will lead to the rapid expansion of public sector debt. The Japanese government has basically decided that the total budget for 2014 will be 95 trillion and 880 billion yen, reaching the highest level in history. According to the IMF, Japan's debt ratio is expected to reach 245% in 2013. In 2014, Japanese government debt servicing accounted for nearly 1/4 of current account expenditure. Meanwhile, with the withdrawal of the Federal Reserve policy The launch will trigger an increase in global long-term bond yields, as well as a rise in Japan's inflation rate and a decline in private demand for treasury bonds, thereby pushing up the Japanese debt burden and increasing the risk of sovereign debt financing.