There Is Still Room For Improvement In China's Exports In 2014.

In February 12th, the General Administration of Customs released January this year. foreign trade Import and export situation. According to customs statistics, in January, the total value of China's imports and exports was 2 trillion and 340 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3% over the same period last year. Among them, exports were 1 trillion and 270 billion yuan, an increase of 7.6%; imports of 1 trillion and 70 billion yuan, an increase of 7%.

The agency generally predicted that in January, China's exports grew by only 2% over the same period last year, and imports grew by 6% year-on-year.

Analysts pointed out that in January, China's exports increased significantly in Japan and the European Union. This has largely benefited from the continued rise of PMI in Japan and the European Union. Under the international background of a moderate recovery in developed economies, there will still be room for improvement in China's exports in the future.

　 Export or current improvement

In the past few months, China's exports have maintained a relatively high growth rate, indicating that the export sector is benefiting from the global economic recovery.

According to Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JP Morgan China, in 2014, China's export sector could enjoy a relatively favorable external environment, and the export growth rate of developed countries would be significantly improved. At the same time, the continued appreciation of the RMB real effective exchange rate and the growth prospects of emerging markets were somewhat dim, which could have a negative impact on China's export industry. On the whole, China's export industry will be moderately improved, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 11% in 2014. It is expected to achieve the fastest growth since 2011.

"Trade figures in January are better than expected, and should not be overjoyed." Ministry of Commerce International Trade Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Institute of economic cooperation, said: "this year's foreign trade situation should be better than last year, and may even be slightly higher than China's overall economic growth this year. But how good it is remains to be seen. "

Pay attention to "two alliance" and "two bricks"

Statistics show that China's imports and exports with its major trading partners are growing well. Bai Ming believes that China's foreign trade market needs to pay attention to "two allies" and "two bricks" this year. The so-called "two alliance" is the European Union and ASEAN, "two bricks" refers to Brazil and India.

The first is the slow recovery of the EU market. Although the economic recovery process in Europe is slower than in the United States and the economic recovery is not yet obvious, the growth of trade between China and Europe is faster than that between China and the United States. Therefore, China EU trade still has great potential this year.

Next is ASEAN countries with cost competitiveness. Due to factors such as appreciation of RMB and cost increase, China's manufacturing industry has weakened its ability to attract foreign investment. Some ASEAN countries with lower production costs have increased significantly in absorbing foreign capital. ASEAN countries with low cost and geographically close proximity are gradually becoming the cost depressions of enterprises' relocation.

In Brazil and India, besides the import of energy and mining commodities, China's construction machinery enterprises have also turned their attention to these two markets. With China's diversification in the field of foreign investment, whether we can create new export highlights is expected.

Export profits are getting thinner and thinner.

In recent years, only the RMB exchange rate has appreciated sharply in BRICs, and the currencies of emerging markets in Southeast Asia are also falling. This is precisely what foreign trade enterprises are most worried about: the appreciation of the renminbi and the rise in labor costs make export business more and more difficult.

"Although the order is acceptable, foreign customers will not let the price rise, so the impact of the appreciation of the renminbi can only be digested by the enterprises themselves, leading to the thinning of export profits," Liu Yifeng, general manager of Shanghai precision electronics, said. "In order to hedge this effect, enterprises must rely on the development of new products, because the quotations of new products can be improved and gradually replace the old ones."

UBS Negotiable securities Wang Tao, China's chief economist, believes that the exchange rate of emerging economies has been falling, and that the RMB has appreciated steadily against the US dollar, which has led to an increase in the effective exchange rate of the renminbi relative to a basket of currencies. If the RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, it may bring downward pressure on exports.