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January High Growth Rate Of Foreign Trade Is Difficult To Achieve Year-Round Fluctuation Trend

2014/2/13 22:29:00 16

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the current international economic structure is bound to see that the pressure on China's foreign trade stability and development is still greater and fluctuating in the next two years. The pressure and volatility mainly come from the trading partners of emerging market economies. 
 at the end of last year, when looking at the prospect of China's economy this year, almost all the economists did not take much interest in import and export. However, the foreign trade data released in January 2014 exceeded the expectation of most market participants: the total value of imports and exports was 2 trillion and 340 billion yuan, up 7.3% over the same period last year, of which 1 trillion and 270 billion yuan was exported, an increase of 7.6%; imports 1 trillion and 70 billion yuan, an increase of 7%; the trade surplus was 194 billion 850 million yuan, expanding 11%. In dollar terms, the total import and export value in January was 382 billion 400 million, an increase of 10.3%, of which exports were US $207 billion 130 million, an increase of 10.6%; imports of US $175 billion 270 million, an increase of 10%; the trade surplus of US $31 billion 860 million, an increase of 14%. 
Less than P, what is even more difficult is that the high growth rate of foreign trade in January this year is not based on the base of last year's low growth or negative growth, but based on the same high growth base of last year. Therefore, the rapid and strong growth of China's foreign trade in January this year has become increasingly prominent. In January last year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 2 trillion and 170 billion yuan (equivalent to 345 billion 590 million US dollars), and the exchange rate factor (the same below) increased by 26.7% over the same period last year. Of which, exports amounted to 1 trillion and 180 billion yuan ($187 billion 370 million), an increase of 25%; the import of 990 billion yuan (equivalent to 158 billion 220 million US dollars) increased by 28.8%; the trade surplus was 183 billion 210 million yuan (equivalent to 29 billion 150 million dollars), expanding 7.7%. After adjusting for seasonal factors, the value of imports and exports increased by 8.1% in January last year, of which exports increased by 12.4% and imports increased by 3.4%. 
At the same time, China's foreign trade mode is also improving, the proportion of general trade is increasing, and the proportion of processing trade is decreasing. P In January, China's general trade imports and exports reached 1 trillion and 350 billion 230 million yuan, an increase of 18.4%, accounting for 57.7% of the total value of our foreign trade, up 5.4 percentage points from the same period last year. The import and export of processing trade decreased by 2.7%, accounting for 29.9% of the total value of our foreign trade. 
"P >" in January this year, China's foreign trade imports and exports will have such a rapid growth situation, the author analyzes, in the export aspect, mainly has the following promotion factors: 
 - the recovery of the market economy of the main developed economies is stable, and the rebound in import demand is relatively strong, leading to a large increase in China's exports and the whole trade. For example, in January, China EU bilateral trade totaled 341 billion 190 million yuan, an increase of 14.6%; bilateral trade between China and the United States amounted to 299 billion 230 million yuan, an increase of 8.8%. At the same time, Japan's economic trend is not bad. 
 - the Japanese trade began to rebound after a fall in political influence. In 2013, trade between China and Japan totaled 312 billion 550 million US dollars, down 5.1% from the same period last year, of which China exported $150 billion 280 million to Japan, down 0.9% from the same period last year, and China imported 162 billion 280 million from Japan, down 8.7% from the same period last year. In January this year, the total value of bilateral trade between China and Japan was 170 billion 50 million yuan, an increase of 7.8%, higher than that of the same period, and the rebound trend was very significant. {page_break} 

 - the crisis eliminated the competitor effect. Because China's macroeconomic stability is better than most of its competitors, many competitors have been eliminated in the economic and financial crisis, and our industry has been sticking to it. This is the effect of crisis elimination of competitors. In the shock of emerging market economies since last year, this effect has been particularly prominent in the export of traditional labor-intensive products, which makes China's export growth almost all higher than the total export growth: 
 in January of this year, our country's < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > exports 110 billion 560 million yuan, an increase of 13.4%; a target= "_blank" href= "_blank" > textile > 64 billion 440 million yuan, an increase of 11.7%; less than 39 billion 140 million yuan, 13.7% yuan; 34 billion 600 million yuan of furniture, 1.5% growth; 22 billion 730 million yuan of plastic products, 27.6% 27.6%; 22 billion 730 million yuan of bags, 17 billion 580 million percent growth; toy yuan yuan, growth; 
In terms of imports, imports of mechanical and electrical products were reduced. In January, the import of mechanical and electrical products decreased by 3.2%, while the import of mechanical and electrical products decreased by 413 billion 10 million yuan. The import price of imports of primary products decreased significantly, and the volume of imports continued to increase substantially, which led to the increase in the total import volume of P. China's imports of iron ore 86 million 835 thousand tons, an increase of 33%, the average import price of 799.8 yuan per ton, up 0.2%; coal 35 million 909 thousand tons, an increase of 17.5%, the average import price of 507.2 yuan per ton, down 13.1%; 28 million 155 thousand tons of crude oil, 11.9%, the average import price of 4870.2 yuan per ton, decreased by 4870.2; big soybeans, tons of increase, the average import price per ton of yuan, down. 
 imports of primary products continue to grow because of the relatively poor resource endowments in our country. From the resources of agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry and fishery to mineral resources, the gap between supply and demand of many resources can not make up for the growing demand. Many of the resources of primary products are quite numerous, but their quality is not high, mining is difficult, and their cost is high. Therefore, in the globalized primary product market, only when primary products are bull markets, these industries will have the value of commercial exploitation and can produce more. Once the primary products enter the bear market cycle, domestic production will be replaced by cheap and low-cost imported resources, so that the import of these primary products will continue to grow rapidly at the time of investment cooling and economic deceleration in China. Even coal, which is extremely rich in reserves, has increased rapidly in recent years. In a few years, it has changed from coal net exports to net imports. Last year, net imports reached 3.2 billion tons, an increase of about 40 million tons compared with 2012. 
 of course, on the whole, the import growth of primary products in China is a good thing, but its side effects in the short term can not be ignored. The biggest side effect is the pressure of "price destruction" on similar industries in China. The economy of the mineral resources producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Northeast China will undoubtedly be greatly affected. At the same time, China's exports to the major producers of large primary products will suffer a certain loss. If the government adjusts the cotton trade and price policy, it is estimated that China's cotton imports will also increase significantly. Faced with this situation, if the government and the masses of some resource producing areas in the northwest fail to get rid of the populist trend of thought as soon as possible, the economic outlook for the next few years is really not optimistic. 
What we need to face is that China's trade figures in January are better than expected, but the trend in January can not represent the whole year. The current international economic structure has determined that the pressure of China's foreign trade stability and development is still large and fluctuating in the next two years, and the pressure and fluctuation mainly come from the trading partners of emerging market economies. Because emerging markets account for nearly half of China's foreign trade, both exports and imports, this risk pressure must not be underestimated.