Development Trend And Future Analysis Of Leather Industry In China

The 08 year is a very special year. China and the world economy are facing a series of hot and difficult problems. The appreciation of RMB, the rising of raw materials and the macro policy control, especially the recent outbreak of the international financial crisis, have made China's leather industry inevitably affected by the multiple negative factors in the world. Its development has encountered many new difficulties and new challenges. How to make China's leather industry smoothly through the adjustment period and continue to win the initiative in the new round of challenges is a new topic that we need to discuss together.

To this end, I (Su Chaoying) share with you all the following questions: first, the general situation of the current industry development and the general situation of import and export. Despite the many adverse factors, China's leather, fur and products industry has maintained a steady growth trend in the 1-8 month of 2008. Production has increased rapidly, production and marketing links have been good, new product development capabilities and profitability have improved, foreign trade dependence has continued to decline, import and export growth has been steady, and the proportion of trade surplus has declined.

The whole industry has a strong ability to resist risks.

In the 1-8 month of 2008, the production of leather and fur industry continued to grow, but the growth rate continued to fall, the production and marketing rate remained at a relatively high level; the proportion of export delivered value to sales value continued to decline, and profit growth slightly accelerated than the previous quarter, but fell back compared with the same period.

In 2008 1-8, the total industrial output value of all state-owned enterprises and annual non-state-owned leather, fur and products enterprises above 5 million yuan (hereinafter referred to as above scale enterprises) was 356 billion 500 million yuan, an increase of 20.7% over the same period last year, and the growth rate of the chain fell 0.1 percentage points, representing a 2.8 percentage point drop in the same period last year.

Although the growth rate is falling, we still maintain a growth trend as a whole.

The value of export delivery continued to decline, accounting for less than 40% of sales value.

In 1-8 months of 2008, the export delivery value of leather, fur and products accounted for 38.1% of the sales value, 0.1 percentage points decreased, and 6.6 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year.

Corporate profits increased slightly faster than the previous quarter, but still fell compared to the same period last year.

In 2008 1-8, the total profit of leather, fur and articles Enterprises above designated size was 15 billion 740 million yuan, an increase of 20.4% over the same period last year. The growth rate was 8.5 percentage points faster than that in 1-5 months, and the growth rate dropped 12.8 percentage points over the same period.

In 2008 1-8, the sales profit of leather, fur and articles Enterprises above designated size was 4.6%, which was 0.4 percentage points higher than that in 1-5 months, unchanged from the same period last year.

The rate of production and marketing remained relatively high, which improved slightly.

In 2008 1-8, the production and sales rate of leather, fur and products enterprises above designated size was 97.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the same period last year.

The volume of imports and exports continued to grow, but the growth rate dropped significantly.

In 2008 1-8, exports of leather, fur and products increased by US $27 billion 920 million, up 7.9% over the same period last year, down 5 percentage points from the same period last year, and imports of US $3 billion 740 million, up 1.2% over the same period last year.

In the 1-8 month of this year, China exported 22 thousand tons of finished leather exports and exported US $310 million, down 63% and 64% from the same period last year. The export of footwear products was 5 billion 600 million pairs, down 3.7% compared to the same period last year, and the export amount was US $18 billion 400 million, up 13.3% over the same period last year.

Among them, 790 million pairs of leather shoes exports, down 14.8% compared to the same period, the export amount of $6 billion 620 million, an increase of 1.7% over the same period last year.

China's footwear imports continued to grow.

In 1-8 months of this year, China imported 23 million 400 thousand pairs of footwear products, an increase of 84% over the same period last year, with an import value of US $490 million, an increase of 94% over the same period last year.

Among them, imports of leather shoes 11 million 530 thousand pairs, 330 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 73.5% and 77.4% over the same period, at the same time, China's leather shoes exports average unit price continued to increase substantially, 1-8 months this year, leather shoes average export price 8.39 U.S. dollars, an increase of 16.2% over the same period, an obvious increase.

This form can be referred to. (PPT) this is the export statistics of footwear products in 2008 1-8 and the import statistics of footwear products in 2008 1-8.

In 2007, the export volume of China's footwear products amounted to US $8 billion 488 million, with an export volume of US $25 billion 305 million, an increase of 8% and 16% respectively compared with 2006, with an average export price of 2.98 US dollars / pairs, an increase of 7.25% over 2006.

In China's footwear exports, leather shoes accounted for the largest share, exports amounted to $9 billion 561 million, an increase of $9 billion 561 million in exports, representing an increase of 8.97% in 2006, accounting for 37.78% of all footwear exports in China, followed by plastic shoes, exports of 4 billion 665 million pairs, exports of 9 billion 437 million US dollars, an increase of 16.8% compared to 2006, accounting for 37.29% of footwear exports, exports of 1 billion 738 million pairs of textile surface shoes, an export amount of 3 billion 879 million dollars, an increase over 18.82% in 2006, accounted for 15.33%. of footwear exports, 2007, China's footwear export market is still the United States (the number of exports accounted for the total), the European Union (Russia), Russia (Japan), Japan (occupied) and Hongkong (accounting for).

Affected by the EU's anti-dumping duties on some leather shoes in China, the number of leather shoes exported to Europe has dropped from 196 million pairs in 2005 to 181 million pairs in 2007, a decrease of 7.7%, an increase of 15% in export volume and a rise in the unit price from 7.13 US dollars to 8.3 US dollars, an increase of 16.4%.

As the largest production base of footwear products in China, Guangdong exported 3 billion 683 million pairs in 2007, with an export value of US $9 billion 580 million, accounting for 37.9% of China's footwear exports.

To sum up, in 2007 and 2008 1-8, China's leather, fur and products industry has developed fairly well, but there are great differences in different industries.

Industries such as tanning, leather clothing, fur and other products were greatly affected by the macroeconomic regulation and control policies of the country, and exports dropped significantly. The leather shoes industry was affected by multiple factors such as the EU anti-dumping, export tax rebate reduction, various costs rising, RMB appreciation and so on. The export volume declined for the first time in seven years.

In the first half of this year, the association and local associations conducted a questionnaire survey on the production and operation in the first quarter of 2008 in twelve provinces.

The results of the survey are as follows: 1. Most enterprises are under construction, and the output of the 50% enterprises has increased year by year; 2. The sales revenue and profit level of the 50% enterprises have declined;

In short, from the industry's economic indicators and research data analysis, the industry is facing the most difficult period in thirty years, we must take seriously.

The Chinese government has recently adjusted the export rebate rate of some leather products, and decided to raise the export rebate rate of leather garments and fur garments from 5% to 11% from November 1st this year. This will alleviate the pressure on enterprises to a certain extent.

(two) the overall situation faced by the current industry is that China's leather industry is facing many uncertain factors and has entered a more difficult period due to the pressure brought by changes in the international and domestic economic environment.

Among them, both the international and domestic environment, and the leather industry itself has entered the industrial pformation period brought about by labor pains.

From the international market, the rise of oil, grain and energy, the depreciation of the US dollar and the spread of the financial crisis have led to a general decline in the US, EU and Japan economies. The export oriented developing countries have been faced with great challenges, and the world economy has been slowing down overall.

From the domestic market, with the rising cost of raw materials and labor, the continued appreciation of the RMB and the adjustment of the national macro policy, the superposition effect of various unfavorable factors began to appear in the leather industry.

From the perspective of the industry itself, with the deepening and breadth of China's opening up to the outside world, international trade has become increasingly frequent, and the form of trade friction has become more complex.

In October 2006, the European Union began to impose anti-dumping duties on leather shoes exported to Europe for 16.5% of its anti-dumping duties. At present, the sunset review has begun. The international animal protection organization has attacked the fur animal breeding industry in China. The banned trade in azo dyes, formaldehyde, six valent chromium, and REACH regulations has been implemented. In 2006, the government adjusted the processing trade policy, adjusted the export tax rebate policy in 2007, coupled with the increasing demand for energy saving and environmental protection, and increased social responsibility pressure, which made the leather industry face a very serious challenge, and made the whole industry begin to adjust to the pition period from the rapid development period.

Throughout the past 30 years, the total output of footwear products in China has reached about 10000000000 pairs, accounting for 60% of the total world footwear products, and the output of light leather is 680 million square meters, accounting for more than 20% of the world's total output.

We can say that we have doubled the growth of low cost and export volume, which has accelerated the rapid development of the industry. In today's world economy and capital market, great changes have taken place. The era of seeking survival and development by the traditional industrial structure and development mode has passed, and the industry is bound to enter the pition period.

The new difficulties and challenges are inevitable. This adjustment and pformation are also in line with the objective laws of industrial development. Only when we face calmly and respond positively, can we maintain the sustained and steady development of enterprises in the industry.

Three, industrial pfer is the inevitable trend of industrial upgrading and development in the future. 1, industrial pfer promotes industrial upgrading. With China's leather and shoemaking industry entering a new round of adjustment period, the pace of industrial pfer is accelerating.

We believe that industrial pfer will be a major trend in the development of leather industry in the future, and also a major manifestation of optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.

It is understood that enterprises in the southeast coastal areas, especially in Guangdong Province, have shifted more outwards, but this pfer is gradual and exploratory.

The direction of pfer is preferred in the more remote areas of the province, followed by Southeast Asian and domestic neighboring provinces, such as Jiangxi, Anhui, Hunan or some industrial base areas such as Sichuan and Chongqing.

It is very important to understand the trend of industrial pfer correctly and grasp the opportunity of development in the process of pfer.

Labor-intensive industries always follow the objective law of shifting from high cost areas to low cost areas. The pfer process is long and gradual rather than overnight.

From the perspective of overall effect, industrial pfer can promote the sustainable development of the industry, is conducive to the layout of the world industrial structure more reasonable, and is also the performance of the industry itself in order to seek sustainable development, adjust the structure and explore new development mode.

From the historical process of the development of leather industry in the world, we can see that each region will play the role of pfer and undertake pfer in different historical periods.

In this process of pition, new opportunities for development will take place and a new situation will be formed.

Therefore, we need to have a positive attitude, calm down and take the initiative to enter the role. This is very important for the competent government departments, industry organizations and related enterprises that are pferred and pferred.

2. Industrial pfer can achieve a win-win situation. We can learn from the experience of European leather industry pfer, and also experience and experience of rapid development in southeast coastal China.

We can predict that, for quite a long time, the southeastern coast of China is still the center of trade, scientific research, information, design, R & D and brand manufacturing and output of the leather industry in China, while the labor-intensive processing industry is pferred, leaving the highest value-added part of the leather industry.

This mutually complementary and mutually beneficial industrial pfer can not only bring good economic benefits to the regions that pfer and undertake the pfer, but also solve the problem of labor employment in the undertaking areas, and at the same time, give full play to the comparative advantages of their respective regions, so that the two sides can win a win-win situation, so that China's leather and footwear industry will achieve sustainable development in the process of orderly industrial pfer.

At present, although the industry is facing many difficulties, we should see that China has abundant raw material resources, perfect industrial chain, huge processing capacity, good processing technology and product quality, and a large market with great potential of 1 billion 300 million people. These advantages are unmatched by other parts of the world. Besides, our government has recently introduced a favorable policy to raise the export rebates of leather products such as leather garments and fur garments from 5% to 11%. Our goal in the next 20-30 years to strive to become the world's largest leather production power still has Xiong Houji foundation.