In January, Foreign Trade Accident Was Strong But Not Optimistic.

< p > Customs General Administration released the latest statistics on the 12 day. In January 2014, China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > Import and export < /a > value was US $382 billion 395 million, an increase of 10.3% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports amounted to 207 billion 132 million US dollars, up 10.6% over the same period, and imports of US $175 billion 263 million, up 10% over the same period last year.

The opening up of China's foreign trade in 2014 is a good omen for China's economy and helps boost confidence.

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In January, the growth rate of exports increased from 4.3% last month to 10.6%, which is better than that expected by the market. P

The reasons are mainly in the following two aspects: < /p >

< p > first is the Spring Festival factor.

The statutory holiday for Spring Festival starts in January 31st, and the main holiday time is February.

For enterprises, it is possible to avoid the impact of the Spring Festival holidays on production. In the first half of 1, the production line was fully loaded to rush orders and rush to production, which ensured the overall export growth in January.

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< p > followed by an increase in exports to major a href= "http://www.91se91.com/business/" > trading partners < /a >, and the export growth rate in January to the US, Europe, Japan and ASEAN has been increasing.

The EU has become China's largest export partner, exporting to US $35 billion 461 million in January, and its exports grew to 18.8% year-on-year.

Exports to the US amounted to US $33 billion 707 million, up 10.7% from the same period last year.

Although trade between China and Japan fell last year, thanks to the ultra conventional stimulus policy in Japan, China's foreign trade demand showed signs of recovery. Exports to Japan in January amounted to US $15 billion 38 million, an increase of 16.1% over the same period last year.

In January, exports to ASEAN amounted to US $23 billion 765 million, up to 18.4% over the same period last year.

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< p > a number of institutions analyze the rise of the European and American economies and play a stimulating role in China's foreign trade export.

First look at the United States. Recently, several key data released by the United States show that the US has strong economic momentum.

US banking giants also recently predicted that US GDP could grow by 3% in 2014, the fastest in 9 years (since 2005).

As the most valued index of the US government, the US unemployment rate has been decreasing in recent two years, and the US government will make greater efforts in 2014 to ensure that the unemployment rate falls further below 7%.

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According to the analysis, in 2014, the euro area economy is expected to go out of recession, GDP will turn from the negative growth of 0.4% in 2013 to the positive growth of about 1%; the economic growth in the UK is expected to accelerate to about 2%; although the economic growth rate of Japan will be reduced due to the weakening of consumption tax and fiscal stimulus measures, the internal recovery power still exists; most emerging markets will rebound with the support of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_q.asp" > easing policy < /a > P.

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< p > despite the fact that the trade data got a good start in January, because of its obvious influence on the Spring Festival, it is hard to avoid distortion. Therefore, the reference value of single month data is not very large.

In addition, the two digit increase in imports and exports in January is obviously directly related to the overall economic recovery of the developed economies in Europe and the United States, indicating that China's foreign trade is still unable to decouple from the main economies of Europe and the United States.

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< p > from the whole year, the prospect of foreign trade is still uncertain.

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< p > first look at the external demand level, and the economic recovery trend in Europe and the United States has not changed. The economic prosperity index of the 28 EU countries has risen to 104.7 in 10 consecutive months. In January, the consumer confidence index was 7.3 in the 34 months, and the main economic indicators in the euro area rose. Germany's comprehensive PMI reached 31 months to 55.9, while the French comprehensive PMI was also higher than the market forecast.

US economic growth is still showing signs of recovery. Unemployment rate continues to decline. With the elimination of extreme weather, economic growth momentum will rebound and export to the US is expected to rebound.

On the other hand, the fragility of emerging economies has hidden the risk of crisis, and the outflow of funds has reached US $33 billion for 15 consecutive weeks, and the trend of outflow will continue. This has led to a sharp fall in currency in recent years, and it is difficult to predict the impact of financial shocks by adopting countermeasures, and the impact on international market demand is uncertain.

On the whole, the trend of Global trade tends to be active, and export demand for China remains strong, and export growth is expected to maintain steady growth.

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Looking at the domestic market, the decline of PMI in January reflects the weakness of industrial production, which has a negative impact on the growth of imports in February. P

The Spring Festival holiday has a great impact on the production of enterprises in February. On the one hand, a large number of laborers return home during the new year, leading to the apparent shortage of export enterprises. On the other hand, the import of resources, energy, raw materials and upstream semi manufactured goods in January is relatively large, resulting in a lack of import demand for related commodities in February.

Therefore, the year-on-year growth rate of imports in February is difficult to maintain year-on-year growth in January.

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