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Foreign Trade Data Review: Foreign Trade Starts Better Than Expected.

2014/2/14 15:36:00 27

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Foreign Trade Data Foreign Trade Opening Expected Target

January 2014, China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > Import and export value < /a > US $382 billion 395 million, an increase of 10.3% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports were US $207 billion 132 million, an increase of 10.6% over the previous year, and imports of US $175 billion 263 million, an increase of 10% over the same period last year, and a trade surplus of US $31 billion 869 million.

Import and export growth has been warmer than in December last year, and China's foreign trade situation started to improve in 2014.

from < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > ring growth rate < /a >, the import and export gross value in January increased by -1.9%, the import growth rate was -0.1%, and the export growth rate was -3.9%.

According to past experience, there are two main reasons for the fall in the import and export ring ratio in January each year. There are two main reasons: first, the enterprise has completed the annual target and achieved business achievement before the end of the fiscal year last month. In January, as the first month of the new fiscal year, the annual performance appraisal pressure is not heavy, resulting in the absolute import and export decline.

Second, under the influence of the Chinese Lunar New Year, a large number of laborers return home during the new year, and the production of enterprises has declined, and the overall import and export scale has dropped.

one is that export growth continues to warm up, and the base effect is limited.

The trend of export growth is higher than that of market organizations, which is due to the impact of the export growth base on the current forecast during the same period last year.

In January 2013, exports amounted to US $187 billion 388 million, an increase of 25% over the previous year. However, the high base has an inflated component, because the calculation base of last year's growth is relatively low (the growth rate of -0.55 in January was only -0.55), so the base effect should be limited for this year's January export growth.

two is limited by seasonal factors.

The statutory holiday for Spring Festival starts in January 31st. The main holiday time is concentrated in February, and the impact on January is relatively small.

For enterprises, it is possible to avoid the impact of the Spring Festival holidays on production. In the first half of 1, the production line was fully loaded to rush orders and rush to production, which ensured the overall export growth in January.

three is an increase in exports to major trading partners, and the export growth rate in January to the US, Europe, Japan and ASEAN has gone up.

The EU has become China's largest export partner, exporting to US $35 billion 461 million in January, and its exports grew to 18.8% year-on-year.

Exports to the US amounted to US $33 billion 707 million, up 10.7 from the same period last year.

Although trade between China and Japan fell last year, thanks to the ultra conventional stimulus policy in Japan, China's foreign trade demand showed signs of recovery. Exports to Japan in January amounted to US $15 billion 38 million, an increase of 16.1% over the same period last year.

In January, exports to ASEAN amounted to US $23 billion 765 million, up to 18.4% over the same period last year.

from the analysis of the external demand of major economies, due to the most severe cold weather in the central and eastern regions of the United States in the past 20 years, the main economic indicators in the United States in January reflected a weak economic recovery. The ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.3, still above the ups and downs.

Despite the impact of extreme weather, economic growth in the United States continued to show signs of improvement. In January, the US Non manufacturing activities continued to expand, the service industry PMI rose to 54, and the unemployment rate continued to decline to 6.6%. As of February 1st, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits dropped to 331 thousand people in the last 8 months.

EU economy has maintained a strong recovery trend, the euro zone economic prosperity indicators generally rose, consumer confidence index rose from -13.6% in December to -11.7%, the initial value of comprehensive PMI increased from 52.1 to 53.2 in January, a new 31 month high, manufacturing industry PMI rose from 52.1 to 53.9, and service industry PMI initial value increased from 51 to 51.9, indicating that European economic recovery can continue, mutual verification with the sharp rise of export Europe.

finally, it is worth noting that there is some discrepancy between export data in January and the trend of experience.

The number of new exports to Japan, Korea and other countries also maintained an increase of 10.6% and 9.2%. Meanwhile, the growth rate of Hongkong's re export trade in January has deviated from that of -18.3%, which is obviously inconsistent with the trend of experience since May 2009. Second, from the perspective of micro enterprises, the demand for PMI orders in January is obviously dropping. The enterprises do not have enough orders to support such a high export reverse in January. Third, after the peak season of consumption in Europe and America, China's exports of labor-intensive products have bottomed out, and export bags, clothing and footwear have been 10%, 17% and 17% respectively. Fourth, while the growth rate of China's exports grew year-on-year, the growth rate of exports of labor-intensive products in South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam in January was down. First, according to the trend of experience, while increasing exports to Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, Hongkong's entrepot trade can also maintain growth. However, its export growth in Europe and America has reached two.

Perhaps the explanation may be that the international arbitrage capital is also innovating under the spread of interest rate, and export data may have some moisture.

import growth rate is slightly higher than that in December, and has a strong import demand for < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > resource goods < /a > and upstream raw materials.

the first is the same as export growth. The growth rate of imports is expected to exceed the market growth, which is related to the smaller base effect last year.

The same period last year imports grew by 28.8% over the same period last year. However, the high growth rate was due to the low base of calculation (the growth rate of imports in 2012 was only -15.3 in January, resulting in a relatively high growth rate in 2013). Therefore, the base effect has little effect on the import growth in January this year, and the growth rate of imports in January has risen to 10%.

two was a series of steady growth and structural adjustment policies last year, which ensured the stabilization of the macro-economy. In January, the local "two sessions" held in various provinces were generally optimistic about the economic situation, the endogenous driving force of economic growth was still strong, and the market had strong import demand for energy resources, upstream raw materials, advanced technology and equipment and some consumer goods, and the growth rate of foreign imports continued to improve in January.

three is a strong growth in imports to major resource countries.

According to the analysis of import countries, the growth rate of Brazil's imports increased to 26.1% year-on-year, and that of Australia increased sharply to 41.5% compared with that of New Zealand. The growth rate for New Zealand's imports reached 70.1% year-on-year.

In addition, the growth rate of imports to India, Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines is also at a high level, 27.7%, 10.1%, 12% and 20.7% respectively.

four, according to the analysis of imported commodities, the import volume of iron ore and its concentrate, copper ore sand, concentrate and steel related to infrastructure investment remained relatively higher than that of the same period last year, rising from 3.44%, 10.64% and -3.2% to 36.8%, 24.3% and 25.6% respectively, indicating that the demand for energy resources and upstream raw materials is strong, and the expansion of procurement continues to be closely related to China's efforts to promote the development of the western region, accelerate the construction of small towns and promote the integration of urban and rural areas.

from the point of view of imports of major agricultural products, imports of soybeans and grains are strong.

Soybean imports amounted to 5 million 910 thousand tons, import amount of US $3 billion 360 million, import volume increased by 23.7% over the same period, grain and grain powder imports 1 million 810 thousand tons, import volume grew 78.6% year on year.

The price trend of main agricultural products down, the import price of soybean, grain and edible oil declined.

In addition, import demand for natural rubber, primary plastic, automotive and automotive chassis is still strong.

In February, exports will keep steady growth for the year P.

From the external demand level, the economic recovery trend in Europe and the United States has not changed, and the economic prosperity index of the 28 EU countries has risen to 104.7 in 10 consecutive months. In January, the consumer confidence index reached 7.3 in the 34 months, and the main economic indicators in the euro area rose. Germany's comprehensive PMI reached 31 months to 55.9, while the French composite PMI was also higher than the market forecast.

US economic growth is still showing signs of recovery. Unemployment rate continues to decline. With the elimination of extreme weather, economic growth momentum will rebound and export to the US is expected to rebound.

The fragility of emerging economies has hidden the risk of crisis, and the outflow of funds has reached US $33 billion for 15 consecutive weeks, and the trend of outflow will continue. This has led to a sharp fall in currency in recent years, and it is difficult to predict the effects of financial turbulence suppression, and the impact on international market demand is uncertain.

On the whole, the trend of Global trade tends to be active, and export demand for China remains strong, and export growth is expected to maintain steady growth.

Holiday factors will lead to a slowdown in import growth in February.

At the beginning of the year, the local "two sessions" held in various provinces were generally optimistic about the economic outlook, and the general keynote of steady growth, structural adjustment and promoting reform remained unchanged. "Haze" became the second focus of local "two sessions" next to "reform", and intensified efforts to control haze had certain inhibits on the import of polluting petrochemical products and energy and resource goods.

The Spring Festival holiday has a great impact on the production of enterprises in February. On the one hand, a large number of laborers return home during the new year, leading to the apparent shortage of export enterprises. On the other hand, the import of resources, energy, raw materials and semi finished products in January is relatively large, resulting in a lack of import demand for related commodities in February.

Therefore, the year-on-year growth rate of imports in February is difficult to maintain year-on-year growth in January.