Cotton Remains Oversupply

< p > 2014/2015, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > storage and withdrawal, dumping and storage, making the market supply abundant, suppressing the uplink of cotton prices, plus direct subsidy, the cotton industry is gradually marketed. From the perspective of basic cotton, China has a stock of tens of millions of tons, enough to meet the consumption of next year, and downstream demand is facing great pressure. The cotton market in 2014/2015 will show a situation of oversupply. < /p >
< p > < strong > cotton industry will be gradually marketed < /strong > /p >
< p > storage and withdrawal is about to be delisted. According to the survey of China cotton reserve management corporation, the total output of cotton in 2013 was 6 million 678 thousand tons. As of January 22, 2014, 2013/2014 cotton temporary storage and storage totaled 5 million 616 thousand tons. In 2013, 84% of new cotton was imported into the state reserve stock. At this rate, the storage capacity of 2013/2014 can reach 6 million tons. The receipt and storage will make the registered warehouse receipt limited. As of January 29, 2014, there were 155 registered warehouse receipts, 39 effective forecasts, and 7760 tons of inventory, far below the number of disk. Therefore, the low volume of registered warehouse receipts will continue to perplex the futures market and further restrict the 2013/2014 a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > downlink space < /a >. However, the withdrawal of storage is about to withdraw from the market, and the price of 2014/2015 contracts is likely to fall. < /p >
< p > the form of throwing and storing is expected to change. As of January 22, 2014, the total amount of cotton reserves was 1 million 61 thousand tons, with a turnover of 404 thousand tons, with a turnover ratio of 38.1%. In order to change this situation, the form of dumping and storage in 2014 is expected to change. There are three specific plans: first, price reduction, to enhance the price advantage of reserve cotton; the two is to set up quotas to raise the enthusiasm of enterprises; three, let traders participate in auction and expand the sales channels of reserve cotton. < /p >
< p > at present, the stock of state reserves exceeds 10 million tons, which is larger than that of domestic consumption in one year, and the willingness of state reserves to go stock is stronger, and the demand for foreign cotton will decline. In the context of over supply of cotton for several consecutive years, this will bring more bad effects to cotton. The weakening of foreign cotton prices will drive the price of foreign yarn to drop, and cheap foreign yarn will also impact domestic downstream market in turn, and thus suppress domestic demand for cotton. < /p >
< p > direct subsidy is conducive to narrowing the price of cotton both inside and outside. With the retreat of the current cotton storage and storage policy, domestic cotton prices will move closer to the market, and the target price of cotton will be formed on the basis of "cotton planting cost plus basic income". This means that the government's regulation through direct intervention by administrative means has begun to change to market regulation. At present, the price difference between inside and outside cotton is about 5000 yuan / ton. With the introduction of direct subsidy policy, domestic cotton prices will inevitably close to international cotton prices, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices will be further narrowed. < /p >
< p > < strong > stock at the end of the term is high, < /strong > /p >
< p > China cotton reserve management company survey shows that in 2013, the total output of cotton in China was 6 million 678 thousand tons, a decrease of 12.3% over the same period last year. Even if cotton production is reduced, domestic cotton stocks will remain high. In the USDA1 supply and demand report, it is estimated that China's cotton end inventory will be 12 million 695 thousand tons, while the global cotton end inventory will be 21 million 251 thousand tons, and China will account for about 60% of the world's final inventory. According to USDA data, the final inventory of cotton in China in 2013/2014 is 12 million 696 thousand tons. The author estimated that the output of 2014/2015 was 6 million 77 thousand tons, the consumption demand was 7 million 92 thousand tons, the import volume was 1 million 916 thousand tons, and the surplus volume was 13 million 597 thousand tons. It can be seen that the surplus situation of cotton in China is still serious in 2014/2015. < /p >
< p > < strong > demand is not optimistic. < /strong > < /p >
< p > sales growth has shrunk. Customs statistics show that in December 2013, China exported about 25 billion 997 million US dollars in textile and clothing, an increase of 7.87% over the same period last year, an increase of 8.75 percentage points from the previous month, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points over the same period in 2012, and a 6.29% increase of the annulus rate, an increase of 4.74 percentage points from the previous month, a 8.62 percentage point reduction over the same period in 2012. < /p >
< p > cotton textile industry PMI accelerates downward. Data show that in December 2013, the domestic cotton textile industry PMI was 37.3%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous month. It was third months since the launch of June 2012, and the decline has been widened, indicating that the industry boom has deteriorated rapidly, with the most obvious decline in the rate of opening. < /p >
< p > the substitution effect of chemical fiber persists. In January 2014, the price of viscose staple fiber increased slightly, the current price was 12300 yuan / ton, and the price of PET staple decreased slightly, the current price is 9680 yuan / ton. The price advantage of polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber and other textile raw materials will affect the textile enterprises' < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/business/ > cotton ratio < /a > ratio, and its replacement effect on cotton will exist for a long time. < /p >