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The Massive Outflow Of Deposits Is Not Optimistic.

2014/2/18 14:05:00 28

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the data released by the central bank showed that in January 2014, the social a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > financing < /a > scale was 2 trillion and 580 billion yuan, a record high in the single month scale; 1 trillion and 320 billion yuan of new RMB loans also hit the highest level in nearly 4 years.

In sharp contrast, deposits in January were significantly reduced by 940 billion 200 million yuan.

Affected by this, M1 grew by only 1.2% at the end of 1, a 14.1 percentage point lower than the same period last year.

the change of two important data has aroused widespread concern in the market.

According to the insiders, according to the law, credit growth is relatively fierce at the beginning of the year, and the current situation of massive outflow of deposits is not optimistic.

At present, liquidity will still maintain a tight balance, but the central bank's monetary policy will not easily turn to relaxation.

deposit massive outflow

The financial statistics of January surprised the market: the massive outflow of deposits and the dramatic decline in the growth rate of M1.

The data released by the central bank showed that RMB deposits decreased by 940 billion 200 million yuan in January, while the balance of narrow money (M1) increased by only 1.2% at the end of 1, compared with P.

In January last year, deposits increased by 1 trillion and 110 billion yuan, and M1 grew by 15.3%.

That is to say, in January this year, the deposit decreased by 2 trillion and 50 billion yuan, and the M1 growth rate dropped by 14.1 percentage points year-on-year.

historical data show that the M1 growth rate announced by the central bank has only seen several ultra-low growth or even negative values in the 80s of last century.

According to the decline of the ring ratio, it is close to the same period in 2012.

from the structural point of view, household deposits increased by 1 trillion and 810 billion yuan in January, deposits in non-financial enterprises decreased by 2 trillion and 440 billion yuan, and fiscal deposits increased by 154 billion 300 million yuan.

Because M1 is mainly composed of cash in circulation and demand deposits in enterprises and institutions, this series of data shows some characteristics of real enterprises in the economic activities of the month.

Xu Bo, a researcher at the Bank of communications Financial Research Center, said, "deposits have dropped significantly, and structural problems of liabilities have been exposed."

Corporate deposits dropped sharply by 2 trillion and 440 billion yuan, which was mainly affected by the payment of bonuses by pre - Holiday enterprises to employees.

Everbright Securities also believes that the growth rate of M1 has dropped sharply from the regular deposit of enterprises.

This year, corporate demand deposits dropped by more than 4 trillion yuan in January.

In addition to the fact that most of them become residents holding cash, many have become corporate deposits.

In January, corporate deposits grew by more than 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan, much higher than the normal fluctuation range of monthly increment over the past few years.

This may mean that enterprises are less optimistic about the future growth prospects, and thus the willingness to spend will fall.

Xu Bo said that the new residents < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > deposit < /a > scale is lower than the scale of the new enterprise deposits. It also indicates that the interest rate liberalization and financial products are increasing. Especially in the near future, the rapid development of money market funds has obvious diversion of household deposits, and interest rate plays a prominent role in regulating financial resources.

new loans exceed expectations

the new loan is in sharp contrast to the deposit data.

Central bank data show that RMB loans increased by 1 trillion and 320 billion yuan in January, an increase of 246 billion 900 million yuan over the same period last year.

Although the industry has estimated more than trillions of credit growth in January, more than 1 trillion and 300 billion is still slightly ahead of expectations.

analysis shows that banks in the first quarter tend to put loans early so that the efficiency of capital use can be improved.

In addition, the fourth quarter of 2013 tightened the credit line, and some projects backlog was also released in January, which is the main reason for the loan impulse in January.

from a structural point of view, the medium and long term loans have obviously rebounded.

Residents' long-term loans rose to 312 billion 100 million yuan from 114 billion 700 million yuan in December last year, and the medium and long-term loans of enterprises rose from 30 billion 200 million yuan in December last year to 504 billion 200 million yuan.

Analysts believe that this shows that tight credit lines at the end of last year, banks generally compressed medium and long-term loans, these backlog of loans in January concentrated release.

The recovery of medium and long term loans may boost the growth of investment.

for the annual credit supply, the bank financial research center judged that in 2014, the slowdown in economic growth, the marketization of interest rates, the deleveraging of the economy, the scale and direction of capital flows will have a significant and profound impact on the relationship between credit supply and demand.

It is expected that the rate of credit will further slow down compared with 2013, with new loans ranging from 9 trillion and 800 billion to 10 trillion yuan, corresponding to an increase of 13.6% to 13.9% over the same period last year.

there is a view that the scale of credit and social financing will maintain a stable growth this year.

monetary policy is difficult to relax

despite the fact that the data on deposit and loan in January still show a "tight money" situation, the industry generally believes that there is no sign of adjustment in the current monetary policy.

Lu P, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that the tight balance of liquidity will be normal in the future.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist for P > CICC, told the media that the current slowdown and inflation are not enough to cause monetary policy to relax.

"Unlike the other economies that are loosening monetary policy, China's real estate bubble is not only broken, but also expanding. Credit expansion is relatively fast, and the leverage of financial and non-financial enterprises is rising.

The importance of controlling financial risks is outstanding, and there is limited space for the authorities to relax monetary policy to support economic growth.

there is also a view that monetary financing is stable and policy is difficult and tight.

Haitong Securities Jiang Chao said that under the background of new credit expectations, large scale deposits outflow and M1 growth dropped to 1.2%, it means that monetary policy will be difficult to tighten, but the credit is too high to make money difficult to relax or to maintain a neutral pattern in the future.

At the same time, the phenomenon of "tight money" has appeared again and again, and the industry has also put forward more opinions on the current efficiency of financial allocation. P

analysts say that in recent years, credit funds have not been able to effectively invest in the real economy, and have not invested in enterprises that can effectively flow and generate new liquidity. Instead, they have entered the real estate development enterprises and government financing platforms and infrastructure projects on a large scale. With the huge amount of foreign exchange, there will be significant problems in liquidity.

some experts also pointed out that we should improve the efficiency of financial allocation resources and enable the huge financial assets to really play the role of promoting the real economy.

We should let the flow of wealth flow to different financial levels and flow to the end cycle of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > /a > body and increase output efficiency.

from this point of view, it is imperative to continue to deepen the pace of financial reform.