The Main Cotton Producing Areas In China Will Be Further Pferred To The Inland Areas Of Northwest China.

< p > < strong > cotton production scale will gradually shrink < /strong > < /p >

< p > China has limited cultivated land resources. In the future, with the advancement of urbanization, natural resources such as arable land and water are becoming increasingly scarce and labor costs continue to increase. From the order of meeting the needs of urban and rural residents, the difficulty of stable development of cotton production in the future will be greater and greater.

Especially at this stage, China's cotton production is still mainly manual, time-consuming, laborious and laborious, and it is difficult to compete with the grain production with high subsidies and high mechanization.

Therefore, under the premise of ensuring national food security, the difficulty of stabilizing and expanding the cotton area will be further increased in the future.

The traditional cotton growing areas such as the Yellow River and the Yangtze River are affected by the comparative benefits of grain and cotton, and the area decreases more obviously.

In the future, China's cotton production area will be further pferred to the northwest inland areas such as Xinjiang, and cotton production will continue to increase slowly.

But considering that cotton is the main source of cash income for farmers, especially in traditional cotton areas, the decline in cotton area will not be too fast.

Before and after 2020, China's cotton sown area will fluctuate between 6000~7000 Mu and output of 550~700 million tons.

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< p > < strong > consumption showed a slow growth trend < /strong > < /p >

China's cotton consumption has increased sharply since its accession to the World Trade Organization (P).

Cotton consumption in China reached about 11 million tons in 2007/2008, an increase of about 5 million tons over 2003/2004 and an annual increase of 11%.

Since 2008, due to the impact of the financial crisis, China's cotton consumption has declined. The total cotton consumption now is about 9 million tons, accounting for about 39% of the world's total.

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< p > in the future, with the gradual recovery of domestic and foreign economy, cotton consumption demand will show growth trend, especially export demand will further recover, but the overall growth rate will obviously slow down compared with the first 10 years of this century.

Among them, the domestic consumption demand is rising due to the consumption structure of the residents, and the growth rate will slow down.

But considering that the scale of China's population will continue to grow, the demand for < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile > /a > a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing "_blank" will also increase.

In addition, as China's production costs, especially the increase in labor costs, part of the textile capacity will be pferred to India, Vietnam, Pakistan and other countries.

A comprehensive analysis shows that cotton consumption in China will fluctuate around 9 million tons in 2020.

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< p > strong > cotton imports will remain at a certain scale < /strong > /p >

Since P, since 2000, with China's a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > marketization reform in depth, especially after joining the world trade organization, China's cotton demand has continued to grow and import scale has expanded rapidly.

In 2000~2011, China's cotton imports surged from 47 thousand tons to 3 million 364 thousand tons, an increase of more than 70 times.

Among them, 2004~2011 net cotton imports accounted for about 40% of the country's cotton output.

In 2012 cotton imports 5 million 138 thousand tons, more than 70% of the year's output.

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< p > from the perspective of the supply and demand situation of cotton in China in the future, the shortage of production will be a normal situation. It is also the basic pattern of China's cotton supply in the future to make use of the international market to meet the demand.

But since 2012, the import of ultra conventional cotton will be improved with the gradual improvement of China's cotton market regulation policy.

Before and after 2020, China's annual cotton imports will be maintained at around 2 million tons.

At the same time, the import of cotton yarn will increase because of the continuous increase of labor costs in China.

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< p > < strong > cotton stocks will gradually fall down < /strong > < /p >

Since 2012, due to the huge cotton price difference at home and abroad and the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy in China, the domestic cotton stocks in China in 2012, 2013 and 2014 reached a higher level in history than in P.

Among them, China's cotton stocks exceeded 10 million tons in 2012/2013 and 2013/2014.

It is estimated that after 2013/2014, domestic and foreign economy will gradually recover, and domestic cotton regulation policies will be adjusted. These stocks will be gradually digested.

Before and after 2020, China's cotton stocks will remain on the normal scale.

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