The Trend Of Private Economy Will Be Inflection Point In June Next Year.

What is the impact of the global financial turmoil on China's economy?

How big is the impact?

How long will it last?

How can we accurately judge the whole economic situation in the presence of enterprises?

In the face of the dramatic changes in the global economic situation, there are various opinions from all walks of life.

In the recent gathering of stone lions, several authoritative experts provided a number of useful insights to the business community.

Zhu Youdi, director of the Department of social development of the State Council Research Office, suggested that China should adjust its industrial structure to enhance its capability of earthquake resistance. Wu Xiaobo, a famous financial writer, said that by next June, the private economy will probably usher in the next "spring". Li Jianwei, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, believes that prices will fall further next year. Professor Liu Yun, director of the enterprise growth research center of Zhejiang University, said that Shishi enterprises do not talk about "winter development".

Zhu Youdi said that the financial turmoil that originated in the United States first spread to Europe, and finally the whole world was affected.

"In the final analysis, the cause of the global financial turmoil is the problem of economic structure.

How can China enhance the capability of earthquake resistance in the global financial turmoil? I think this needs to adjust the industrial structure very well.

He said.

Li Jianwei believes that the decline in global economic growth triggered by the global financial turmoil will have a greater impact on China's economy from two aspects. On the one hand, the global financial turmoil will lead to a large loss in China's foreign investment, which is mainly related to foreign exchange reserve investment and related investments in the domestic financial sector and subprime lending.

Judging from the current situation, the domestic financial sector's investment in subprime lending is small, and the direct loss is not large, and it is estimated that it will not exceed 10 billion dollars.

On the other hand, the global financial turmoil will have an indirect impact on China's future economic growth by influencing China's exports.

This indirect impact has two ways: first, the decline in the growth rate of European and American economies and the decrease in import demand will directly lead to a decline in China's export growth, thereby affecting domestic economic growth; two, because of the depressed economic growth in Europe and the United States, China's economy will still maintain a growth rate of over 8%, and there will be a larger trade surplus, which will further increase the pressure of RMB appreciation.

If the RMB continues to appreciate, the competitiveness of Chinese products will further weaken, which will impact the export again and affect the domestic economic growth.

"As of June this year, many SMEs lost money and went bankrupt.

According to the statistics of the CBRC, loans to major commercial banks amounted to 2 trillion and 200 billion yuan in the first quarter and 300 billion yuan to small and medium enterprises, accounting for 15%, a decrease of 30 billion yuan over the same period last year.

These data show that many private enterprises in China have encountered difficulties.

Professor Liu Yun said.

Wu Xiaobo said that in the past 30 years since China's reform and opening up, there has been a phenomenon of little concern, that is, every winter there will be a "winter" in economic development.

"In fact, China's economy is still in such a regular economic cycle.

This year's macroeconomic regulation and control is the first to be under the pressure of some small and medium-sized enterprises and foreign trade enterprises.

My judgement is that the direct impact is not as big as expected. In the first half of the year, we squeezed out a large part of our bubble, and in addition, foreign trade such as "depression" and other factors led to lack of confidence.

Confidence is not built in a moment.

From the national level, the current situation of our country is much better than that of other countries. What we are directly affected by the global financial turmoil is just the financial level. "

Wu Xiaobo said.

He believes that Chinese enterprises will surely fail, because many enterprises' fundamentals have not been destroyed, and for enterprises, this may be just a new turning point.

"From 1998 to 2008, it is an economic cycle. Now it may be an inflection point.

As for the next "spring", I think almost June will come next year.

This year, small and medium-sized enterprises and real estate enterprises will definitely be able to drop a lot of them. However, the government will continue to introduce various "combination punches" to see whether confidence can rise in 3 and April next year. I think it will be able to get up.

Wu Xiaobo said.

Li Jianwei said that this year and the first half of next year will be a difficult period for China's economy.

"We analyzed the situation from the three quarter of last year and found that the national economy has entered a cyclical downward trend.

After 5 consecutive years of 10% high-speed growth, the economy began to callback. In fact, from the two quarter of 2007 or from the three quarter, our economic growth has begun to decline, mainly caused by industry.

From the perspective of demand, what causes the callback of China's economy?

Mainly investment.

At this stage, the role of investment in our economic growth is very important, but in fact, investment began to callback in 2001. Although exports have dropped at a slower pace than in previous years, they still maintained a growth rate of 20%, that is to say, our callback is a normal callback so far.

He said.

As for the inflation problem which has been widely concerned in the past few years, Li Jianwei believes that it is no longer a problem at present.

"In the past few months, CPI has been callback, it is expected that the whole year may be at 6% level, further down to 2% next year, and deflation may occur after 2010.

In recent months, the factory price index (PPI) of industrial products, which has been on the rise in recent months, is considered to have reached its peak in August and has been callback since September.

With the fall in the price of crude oil and iron ore in the international market, PPI will also fall considerably next year.

Li Jianwei said.

Let's not talk about "winter" talk about development. "During this period, many enterprises in Zhejiang are asking" how to do "and thinking about how to spend the winter.

Now, when we come to Shishi, we find that Shishi enterprises are thinking about how to develop.

Professor Liu Yun said so.

She believes that the development of Shishi enterprises is in the normal rising period of benign curve, which is a good opportunity for Shishi.

"What is the success of an enterprise?

I think it's passion plus vision plus business mode.

Passion is very important. A person who has the desire to do something is likely to succeed.

Vision is thinking, thinking is opportunity. "

She said.