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Niu Wenxin: The Balance Of Treasure Is Equivalent To The 4 Increase In Bank Deposit Costs.

2014/2/26 9:42:00 31

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A blog article entitled "banning the balance of treasure" released by Niu Wenxin, chief executive of P & CCTV, chief news commentator, caused a sensation in the industry and triggered several rounds of controversy. Niu is also known as "the 2014 Internet financial first red man" by netizens. Today, Mr. Niu is traveling to China's economic network to discuss online finance and traditional finance. Niu Wenxin believes that the balance of treasure has become the second central bank. 
 a website carried out a survey "< a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > > balance treasure < /a > toxic. "A total of more than 50 thousand netizens participated in the voting. 87.7% of the netizens believed that the balance treasure would not harm the Chinese economy, but only more innovative. According to this survey, Niu Wenxin believes that if the product such as balance treasure is not restricted, it will turn all of the current deposits into fixed deposits, and all the deposits at the zero point and three points will become 6% and 7% deposits in theory. This means that the cost of bank deposits has increased by at least one percentage point, but a percentage increase is equivalent to the 4 increase in interest rates. 
 Niu Wenxin stated that the central bank suddenly told you overnight that the four increase in interest rates would have great impact on the economy. During the period, the balance treasure pumped 400 billion of the funds from the bank. Although the four hundred billion of the funds returned to the banking system at a higher price, it was equivalent to raising the deposit reserve once. Raise the reserve requirement. Is that money going back again? It is not bad at all. Although the reserve requirement has tightened the liquidity of the bank's reserve assets, the central bank has also given short-term demand to commercial banks, so the whole money supply has not changed much, but the price has changed a lot. So the so-called monetary tightening is not to completely withdraw the money, but to stimulate interest rates upward through such an action. So in fact, the balance of treasure has become the second central bank. 
 Niu Wenxin believes that from the beginning of the year to the present, the balance of treasure is equal to China's raising the statutory reserve requirement of one percentage point, and at the same time pushing up the interest rate of four cardinal numbers. 0.25 is a cardinal number, pushing up a point, which means that it adds 4 interest. When China's downward pressure is very great, what reason do we have to raise the statutory reserve requirement when the pressure and risk of the whole surrounding country's economy are very large? What reason do we have to raise interest rates for the four time? If such a consequence is made, is this not harmful to China's economy? Niu Wen Xin said that this is not what ordinary people can see. {page_break} 
 > the balance of treasure is not as good as righting the balance treasure .
 dare to stand out and say that the 60 million people's eyes are fragrant trash, is they standing at the top of the pack or chicken standing crane group? It is necessary to speak rationally rather than lose each other's emotions. 
Less than p ago, Niu Wenxin, chief editor and chief news commentator of CCTV's securities information channel, accused Yu Bao of being a vampire on the bank and a typical financial parasite. He also advocated banning the balance of treasure. 
There are three reasons for P: sitting on the right track, bringing 2% benefits into their pockets; reducing bank deposits and pushing up the financing costs of enterprises; other developed economies in the world are not allowed to have similar products. 
 the first reason is bruising, not rushing to the bottom and rushing into battle. It has been refuted by Alipay: the annual management fee of the balance treasure is 0.3%, the custodian fee is 0.08%, and the sales service fee is 0.25%. The total result is 0.63%., which is almost the same as other funds, and the living Lei Feng can not be counted, nor is it Zhou Po. 
The third reason why is to understand clearly and pretend to be confused. Because in the United States, Japan and Europe and other developed economies, interest rates have been marketization instead of regulation. There is not much room for survival of the balance treasure. Similarly, developed economies do not have access control, financial innovation competition is fierce, and investment and financing channels are diversified. In contrast, China's handful of stock market gold market banking channels, the balance of treasure do not stand out. Therefore, why do the US, Japan and Europe have no balance treasure, which is equivalent to asking why the Chinese do not eat the steamed bread. 
 second reasons should be detailed. The balance of treasure is sitting at 400 billion yuan, which is quite different from that of ordinary depositors sitting on 4000 banks. The former has the bargaining power of interest rates, especially in the "money shortage" year. Therefore, ordinary depositors can only get the current interest rate, while the big clients such as balance treasure can get the deposit interest rate of the same industry, which is more than ten times or even dozens of times of the former. 
 money is still put in the bank, the deposit has not decreased, but after a balance treasure hand, the cost of bank deposit is very different. By the way, this is the power of organization. It's all over once, and the jargon is called middleman. If the balance treasure is a vampire and a parasite, the bank seems to be reluctant to avoid it. Only the balance of treasure is sucking the blood of banks, and banks suck the blood of enterprises. 
 banks will not have no money to lend. However, the high yield of the balance Bao has squeezed the excess profits of banks. In the long run, bank levees will be supplementation outside the levees to raise loan interest rates and raise the financing cost of enterprises. If the banks are thick skinned and heartless, this possibility is there. The words come around here. 
, so China's Internet finance goes to a crossroads: it is to kill the balance treasure, sacrificing like a potato's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > retail /a >, to complete the bank, to maintain the financing needs of enterprises. Or righting the balance of treasure, let it do with bank PK, also take the risk of borrowing and lending, also take a risk, see theoretically have lower cost and more efficient balance treasure, and his small partners, can the enterprise's financing cost pull down? 
 price reform. If the market is not opened first without the admittance reform, the price reform will result in a price increase, and the market and the people will be unable to bear it. Interest rate is also a price, which is the price of money. If there is no increase in the market and no liberalization of market access, the marketization of interest rate is synonymous with the rise in interest rates. Now, the growth of Internet finance, as an increment, is standing outside the door and knocking on the door knocker. Is this not the gospel of interest rate marketization reform? 
 to get rid of the balance treasure, CCTV commentator can think of it as Xiaozhi Xiaohui. To open doors and windows for the balance of treasure and bring financial innovation to the real economy, if financial regulators can design such a path, they will be wise and intelligent. {page_break} 
 "balance treasure people" early warning: Redemption tide or rapid decline of yield 
According to data released recently by the P fund industry association, the scale of the IMF increased by 205 billion 400 million yuan in January, an increase of 27% and an average increase of 6 billion 634 million yuan. 
 the rapid growth of the scale of monetary fund mainly comes from the contribution of various treasure represented by balance treasure. 
 February 14th, the size of Tianhong Zeng Li Bao Monetary Fund exceeded 400 billion yuan, compared with 185 billion 342 million yuan at the end of 2013, and its scale grew by more than 1 times. In addition to the balance of treasure, the financial services launched by Tencent run on line for one month, with a scale of nearly 30 billion yuan. 
 these fast-growing internet monetary fund will basically deposit more than 90% of the fund assets investment bank agreement. This has attracted the attention of regulators in the field of liquidity risk. 
 according to media reports, in February 21st, the SFC organized the top leaders of more than ten fund companies, which focused on the risk of large proportion of fund assets in investment bank agreement deposits. 
 "at the end of November, the deposit rate of the bank agreement reached as high as 6%, and many monetary fund allocated 90% fund assets to bank deposits. But with the recent decline in deposit rates, the income of all kinds of treasure will also decline rapidly, and there is likely to be a wave of redemption. A large fund company source said that regulators worry that investors will focus on redemption, there will be liquidity risk. 
 "balance treasure" deposits complex /p >
 the regulatory authorities warn the liquidity risk of the IMF, which is that more than 90% of the fund assets of more than ten billion will be invested in the bank agreement deposits. 
 the most prominent representative is Tianhong Zeng Li Bao Monetary Fund. The fund's quarterly report shows that by the end of 2013, the ratio of bank deposits and settlement reserve funds to fund assets reached 92.21%. 
 "the ratio of investment deposits of Tianhong Zeng Li Bao is so high that it is the choice made after considering the yield and liquidity comprehensively. We can only maintain such a high deposit ratio before we have a better investment target. " Southern China monetary fund manager Chen Ning (a pseudonym) said. 
 the investment scope of the IMF includes one-year bank time deposits and large certificates of deposit; bonds with a period of less than three hundred and ninety-seven days; Bonds Repurchase within a year, and central bank bills. 
 the "one month term" bank agreement deposit, the interest rate is about 5% to 5%. AAA rating of short fusion, yield can also reach 5% - 5.3%., Chen Ning introduced. 
 but for super large scale monetary fund, short finance can accommodate very limited funds. 
 "a short scale to 1 billion 500 million -20 billion yuan, is already a relatively large variety. However, the proportion of funds invested in a short fuse can not exceed 10% of the issuing scale, that is, one or two billion investment. Chen Ning said that Tianhong Zeng Li Bao bought billions of dollars every day, and it is impossible to make short fuse as investment target. 
Besides P, the IMF can also invest in treasury bonds, central bank bills and financial bonds, but the yield of these varieties is relatively low, and fund managers will also face the problem of not buying enough money. 
 < < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_q.asp > > financial debt > /a > is not issued every day, bonds can only be put into a variety of varieties within one year, and the two level market can not be bought. Tens of millions of people can buy tens of millions of dollars a day. It is impossible to buy billions of bonds for billions of dollars. Chen Ning said that the size of the IMF reached more than 100 billion, and basically it could only invest in deposits. 
P, a fund manager with 6 years experience in monetary fund management in Shenzhen, has expressed similar views. "If I am to manage the" Tian Hong "Zeng Li Bao, it must be a deposit. Only investment deposits can accommodate billions of net purchase funds per day. 
"P" and Tianhong Zeng Li Bao, similar to the "treasure" products, are also facing the investment pressure caused by the large amount of capital purchase. 
 "every day there is a net purchase of more than 500 million yuan, if it is to buy debt, get twenty million to buy, it is difficult to buy quantity. But if you make a deposit in a bank agreement, you can get 500 million of the money out if you talk to a bank. Shenzhen fixed company director of a fund company said. 
 a southern monetary fund manager Li Li (a pseudonym) revealed that the size of the new IMF increased from more than ten billion to 6 billion yuan, and the short fuse market could not meet the needs of the expansion of the Monetary Fund. "Weekly bonds issued are 20 billion -300 billion yuan, but each bond can only match 10%, even if all debts are involved, it can only match 2 billion -30 billion yuan." 
 liquidity worries 
 for monetary fund managers, investment bank deposits are highly profitable and easy to operate. But now, this investment path is facing the real worries of the decline in bank demand. 
 twenty-first Century, business reporter has learned that the demand for bank deposits has declined significantly. This is directly seen from the price of funds. 
 "before the middle of November to the Spring Festival, the interest rate of the investment bank's agreement deposit is increased by dozens of basis points on the basis of Shibor, but now it is a reduction point, the largest reduction is 100BP." A trader of a brokerage firm in Southern China. 
Besides P, banks also began to pick up counterparties. "Before all kinds of time limit funds are collected, now is only for more than half a year or a longer period of funds, and is not a deadline can be quoted." The former Southern China securities broker said that when the inquiry was made, it was obvious that the demand for bank funds fell. 
 for this reason, Li Li also directly felt that the demand for funds in the banking industry was relatively weak. "Now the interest rate for bank deposits in one month's time limit is 4.4%, and the deposit interest rate for half a year or above is about 5% to 6%." He noted that some of the joint-stock banks, such as Pudong Development and investment, are still very strong in the allocation of assets in the same industry. It may be that the demand for the same industry is slightly weaker because the project has not been discussed at the beginning of the year. 
 in addition to the decline in bank agreement deposit prices, the yield of other monetary fund investment assets also began to decline significantly. 
 "at the end of last year, the yield of short fuse reached more than 6%. But now half a year's AAA interest rate is about 5%, and the annual interest rate can be 5.2% to 5.3%., "Li Li said." the assets that the IMF can invest in recently is about 5%. 
 some of the "treasure" products, the annual yield of 7 days still stay at 6%, which originated from the agreement deposits with a yield of more than 6.5% before the Spring Festival. 
 "the scale and rate of change will be very fast. Now the 7 annual yield is about 6%, but the next two weeks will drop to 5% or so. A monetary fund manager in Southern China believes that once the earnings fall below 5%, the pressure will be greater. After all, banks have some financial products that can earn 6% of their earnings, and expect that the cargo base will be under redemption pressure. 
 expected to face redemption pressure in the future, prompting fund managers to adjust asset allocation. 
 "now we need to increase the allocation of bonds. If we encounter redemption, we should raise funds through pledge of bonds. It is impossible to rely on the withdrawal of deposits in advance to deal with redemption. A monetary fund manager admits that it has just started to increase the allocation ratio of bonds. Today, the proportion of investment in deposits is still 90%. {page_break} 
 balance treasure "forced" deposit interest rate marketization 
 Niu Wenxin, the chief commentator of CCTV's information channel, published the article "banning the balance of treasure". It was like a stone stirred up waves of thousands of times, and all kinds of bricks were attracted at one time. In the afternoon of February 24th, Niu Wen published his blog response again and again. He believed that when judging the market problem, we should not only start from the interests of the participants, but also have a more important position, that is, the position of the state's macroeconomic interests, and he called for the suppression of the balance treasure based on this position. For the latest blog of Niu Wen Xin, Alipay micro-blog responded quickly, saying: "Tong Tong Tong, no pain," said, "the core value of the balance treasure is to enable ordinary people to enjoy their own financial services at zero threshold and low cost." (February 25th Yangcheng Evening News) 
 the high deposit rate of the balance treasure is generally welcomed. At this time, some people suddenly came up and said that they should "ban the balance treasure". It has to be said that the logic of Niu Wen Xin is indeed a problem. If the balance treasure is a "vampire", then what is the interest rate that the deposit interest rate is so low and the long-term interest on deposit and loan is huge? Many people defend the balance treasure. The spearhead is actually a bank, and they are happy to see that the balance treasure becomes a catfish, which has an impact on the vested interest of banks. 
 of course, calm down, Niu Wenxin thinks that the balance of treasure may have an adverse effect on the macro economy. This worry is not unreasonable. He and his opponents are more concerned with different angles of view and different positions. 
 the profit model of the balance treasure is very complicated in terms of professional terms. It is very simple to say it in colloquial language. For example, if a person has 1 million yuan to deposit in the bank, he would like to get higher interest rates, and the bank will not agree to it. Because the amount is huge, the balance treasure has the ability to negotiate with the bank and get higher interest rates. In this way, the balance treasure will benefit from it, and the depositors of the balance treasure can get more interest. 
What Niu Wenxin is worried about is that the size of the balance treasure is not large enough. In the future, if everyone throw money into the Internet products such as balance Bao and abandon the bank, the problem can be serious: banks will be kidnapped by the "balance treasure", the financing cost will be raised, and the loan interest rate will go up, which will lead to the increase of the production cost of the enterprises, and ultimately affect the economic development and the national macro-economic interests. 
 some people will ask: why do banks not raise the deposit interest rate and retain depositors since they worry that "balance treasure" will take away deposits and kidnap banks? This is the key problem at present. Because the bank's deposit interest rate is fixed by the government, the bank has no right to raise it without authorization. Its authority is only 10% floating on the basis of the benchmark interest rate. The fundamental competition is only "balance treasure". Facing the strong competition of the Internet finance, the predicament of the bank is here, and there is no way to do it. 
 this shows that the only way to break the dilemma is to deposit interest rate liberalization. In June 2012, the central bank allowed financial institutions to float interest rates for the first time, with a maximum floating rate of 10%, which is regarded as a prelude to the marketization of deposit interest rates. In fact, with the deepening of China's market economy reform, the marketization of interest rates is already in the firing line, and the emergence of Internet products such as balance treasure will speed up the process of interest rate marketization so that the arrow on the strings will have to be issued. If that is the case, then it can be regarded as the outstanding achievement of the "balance treasure people". {page_break} 
 balance treasure will only reduce the cost of social financing 
 CCTV commentators called for the abolition of the balance treasure, on the grounds that the balance treasure "seriously raised the cost of social financing" and "struck the national economic security". It is totally unnecessary to understand the nonsense of economic logic and economic history, which is very harmful and must be clarified. 
 relying on Celestica Monetary Fund. Some of the money raised is invested to earn profits, and most of them are returned to the bank in the form of large deposits. Therefore, the high interest paid by the balance treasure to the public is actually the interest paid by the bank. 
 people can only get very little interest when they deposit money in a bank, but moving their fingers on computers or mobile phones and spanferring money into the balance treasure can get a much higher interest rate than the bank's time deposits. In those who do not understand economic logic and economic history, and do not go deep into the investigation of the world, it raises the financing cost of real enterprises and also impacts the economic safety of banks. 
 but we have to ask: why do banks only give low interest to individual depositors, but high interest on balance? 
 the answer lies in economies of scale. The same is to pull deposits, pull 10 billion from the balance of treasure and pull 10 billion from retail investors, the cost is in the sky, one underground. The reason why banks are willing to give higher profits to balance treasure is largely because the balance treasure has saved them costs. This is like group buying. The reason why businesses are willing to give group purchase more favorable prices is that group buying saves business expenses for merchants, and businesses are willing to return the cost saved to buyers in part by discount. 
 because the cost of absorbing small deposits is high, banks use high interest rates to attract large deposits. Some people saw business opportunities, bought large certificates of interest with high interest rates, and then sold them to small investors. In this way, small investors enjoy the ROI of large enterprises. The money market mutual fund was born. The history of the IMF tells us that before the birth of the IMF, banks have actively raised interest rates through the way of large certificates of deposit. The IMF is born on the basis of large certificates of deposit. If banks do not intend to raise interest rates to absorb deposits through large certificates of deposit, then the IMF will not appear at all. 
 I do not deny that at present, the money of the balance treasure basically comes from the bank account, which indeed raised the financing cost of the bank. But this can not be the reason for prohibiting and canceling the balance of treasure. Why should we ban banks? Computer typing has caused an impact on traditional typeface printing. Is it necessary to ban computers? The refrigerator has an impact on ice block refrigeration. Is it necessary to ban the fridge? You can restrict your depositors to spanfer money to the balance, but you can't oppose others to make the balance treasure. You can't oppose other banks to turn their savings to the balance. All economic activities must be based on no competition. 
 the way to reduce the cost of bank financing is not to prohibit and cancel the balance of treasure, but to further open the market and allow the balance treasure to directly deposit from depositors. In order to win the competition, they must be more efficient. What banks need to do is to adapt to new Internet technologies, adjust business strategies, streamline and optimize physical stores, and carry out financial innovation. On the surface, the market is divided and smaller, but because of efficiency improvement, the market will become bigger and everyone will be bigger. What we see is that there are more and more participants in any industry, and the market is bigger and bigger. Everyone is bigger. Instead of only one person playing, the market is bigger and bigger. The only player is playing bigger and bigger. In the long run, banks and the balance treasure symbiosis and mutual prosperity, not to mention the impact of the balance of treasure on banks. 
 take a step back, even if the balance Bao really raised the debt cost of the bank, that would not increase the financing cost of the enterprise. The interest rate that banks lend to enterprises is high or low, which has nothing to do with the cost of financing. Will you lend me money if you pick up the money? 100% can interest rate loans be borrowed at 100% interest rates? Over the years, low interest rates in banks have been pumped away from ordinary people. If the balance treasure really pushed up interest rates, the higher part would also be part of the rental value of the banking bureaucracy. 
 the emergence of the balance treasure will not only raise the financing cost of enterprises, but also will reduce the financing cost of enterprises because of efficiency improvement. 
 if the banking industry is highly competitive, they should be open to the balance treasure and actively seek countermeasures. The bank's accusation of the balance treasure can only show that the banking industry is highly monopolized. 
 just like Mr. Hu Feng said: the logic of banning balance treasure can also be used to ban banks. Banks at low prices from society to absorb funds to spanfer loans to enterprises at a high price, seriously raising the financing costs of enterprises, banning banks, allowing enterprises to directly finance from ordinary people, reducing the interest of corporate capital, increasing the interest of people lending, killing two birds with one stone.