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China'S Textile Raw Material Market Is Facing A Serious Imbalance Between Supply And Demand, And The Overall Market Downturn.

2014/2/26 13:23:00 15

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Textile Raw Materials Market Textiles Raw Materials

from the deep texture of the year-round market trend, many malpractices caused by imbalance between supply and demand are being fermented.

first, the imbalance between supply and demand leads to low price fluctuation and production profit space is compressed.

Since last year, the main textile raw materials such as polyester, nylon, acrylic, viscose and so on have been showing a downward trend overall, and the market average price is generally lower than that of the same period last year.

Moreover, the rising cost of upstream raw materials and the continuous sale and promotion of chemical fiber factories have led to a worsening of the overall profitability of the industry.

During the year, most of the processing profit of the products was maintained at a low profit level, and some of them lost for a long time.

Take polyester products as an example, in the 1~4 quarter of last year, the average gross profit of polyester filament POY150D/48F was 147 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 39.51% compared with the 1~3 quarter. The average gross profit of polyester staple fiber 1.4D*38mm was -163 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 4.49%. < /p compared with the 1~3 quarter.

secondly, the imbalance between supply and demand leads to continuous inventory and low operating rate.

With the reduction of export orders and the blurring of the boundaries of domestic and off-season, the enthusiasm of downstream weaving enterprises is declining compared with previous years, and the enthusiasm for purchasing textile materials is obviously less than expected.

In order to cope with the oversupply market, chemical fiber production enterprises began to reduce production voluntarily, expecting to drive prices to stabilize and rebound.

During the Spring Festival, more than 20 polyester enterprises such as Hengyi petrochemical, Xinmin science and technology, and Bai Hong group have overhaul plans. Production capacity and production capacity have increased to more than 7 million tons, the most productive year in nearly 20 years.

finally, as the terminal textile < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > the inventory backlog is serious, so that the risk of capital recovery of the bomb weaving and weaving enterprises increases.

At present, the recovery rate of accounts receivable for water injection enterprises in Shengze is 50% to 70%. The recovery rate of accounts receivable in Taicang area is only 50% to 60%. The recovery rate of accounts receivable in roundabout enterprises in most areas is 50% to 70%. The recovery rate of accounts receivable in Haining warp knitting enterprises is 60% to 70%, and the recovery rate of accounts receivable in Cixi area is even below 50%.

In addition, the problem of arrears has even extended to the spinning link. Some spinning mills have to change the tradition to ensure the delivery of goods.

The downstream demand of textile raw materials in P > 2014 is not necessarily better than that in 2013.

The 2014 is the year of China's economic pformation. The economic pformation has replaced the digital growth as the new focus of the market, and the capacity of the domestic market is expected to be limited.

At the same time, the global financial crisis is not over yet, and external demand is still relatively fragile.

Therefore, the shortage of demand will continue to suppress the textile raw material market, and the supply of goods will continue to expand, and the core of the price index of the major varieties will be further reduced.

According to the forecast of the built and proposed projects, the production capacity of domestic polyester filament is expected to increase by 3 million to 3 million 500 thousand tons in 2014, the production capacity of polyester staple fiber is expected to increase by 800 thousand tons, the production capacity of nylon is expected to increase by 400 thousand to 500 thousand tons, and the production capacity of viscose is expected to increase by 350 thousand tons.

price market situation overall depression and the decrease of most of the year's

according to the monitoring data of 10 main varieties, the price of domestic textile raw materials market in the fourth quarter of 2013 was 3 compared with the previous quarter price, accounting for 30%. The price was flat, the products were 1, accounting for 10%, and the prices of products dropped 6, accounting for 60%.. Compared with the same period last year, the price of polyester staple, polyester staple, nylon filament and other varieties showed a downward trend, and only cotton and polypropylene staple were slightly increased.

[price increase champion] polyester filament (up 1.94%)

reasons: in the four quarter of 2013, the market price of polyester filament dropped and rebounded mainly due to the rising demand for coarse denier yarn in autumn and winter and the decrease in actual supply.

Since November, due to the large loss of polyester production, the mainstream production enterprises such as Shaoxing Yifeng, double rabbit new materials and Hengyi Petrochemical have successively reduced production operations, resulting in a tight supply of merchantable specifications.

post market forecast: as the order of the terminal textile enterprises is shrinking, the starting rate of the downstream bombs and weaving enterprises gradually decreases, and the rigid demand of the market is facing serious downward pressure.

But it is worth noting that the domestic concentrating spinning filament maintenance plan is relatively concentrated, which will play a certain role in inhibiting the decline of the latter market.

[price decline champion] acrylic fiber tow (down 7.76%)

reasons: in the 11~12 month of 2013, the upstream raw material acrylonitrile fell sharply 800 yuan / ton, fell to 13300~13500 yuan / ton, while the acrylic fiber production platform moved down sharply, it also suppressed the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream cotton mill. In addition, textile domestic sales were coming to an end, the demand side was good support decreased, and the acrylic manufacturers' inventory was slow down.

Under the influence of double negative factors, acrylic producers were forced to lower their product quotations, and the focus of actual paction prices also declined.

post market forecast: on the one hand, the price of raw materials and acrylonitrile has rebounded after a sharp fall in the previous period, which has a supporting and promoting role in the acrylic fiber market.

On the other hand, Qilu Petrochemical and Ningbo Zhong Xin and other acrylic production enterprises have a certain maintenance plan, and the reduction of supply will also make a positive contribution to the market.

It is expected that the price of acrylic fiber market will gradually become stable in the later stage.

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yield, cotton yield decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, chemical fiber production continued to increase slightly,

cotton production will decline compared with last year, and the number of early forecast will be reduced due to the decrease of planting area and bad weather factors.

According to the statistics of China Cotton Association in November 2013, it is estimated that cotton production in 2013 will be 6 million 770 thousand tons, a decrease of 3.17% over the previous month, a decrease of 12.50%. compared with the previous year. Meanwhile, the domestic production of chemical fiber will continue to increase, but the increase in output will slow down.

According to the statistics of China Chemical Fiber Association, in 2013 1~11, China's chemical fiber output totaled 37 million 641 thousand tons, up 7.6% from the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down 4.1 percentage points over the same period last year.

In the 1~11 months of 2013, the output of man-made fibres was 3 million 900 thousand tons, up 18.4% from the same period last year, and the output of synthetic fiber was 30 million 19 thousand tons, up by 5.7%. < /p over the same period last year.

[yield increase champion]

spandex (an increase of 26.80% over the same period) reasons: according to statistics, in 2013, 1~11 months, the domestic spandex output was 354 thousand tons, a substantial increase over the same period last year. 26.80%. has been affected by the demand for terminal textiles since last year, and the domestic supply capacity is very limited. The supply and demand relationship of spandex market has improved significantly, and the output and sales volume of related enterprises has increased significantly.

At the same time, the price of spandex products continued to rise, 40D spandex climbed from 44000~45000 yuan / ton in the beginning to 50000~52000 yuan / ton, up to 14.61%.

[yield decline champion]

According to statistics, according to statistics, in 2013, 1~11 months, the output of domestic polypropylene was 274 thousand tons, a slight decrease of 1.50%. compared with the same period last year. This is mainly due to the rising price of raw materials PP and the high cost of P, while the price of polypropylene products can not be synchronized, leading to a decline in the profits of polypropylene production enterprises, and an increase in production and shutdowns in production, resulting in a decline in the actual production of polypropylene.

Take the East China market PP pellet drawing level as an example, from the beginning of January 2013, 10900~11100 yuan / ton rose to 11900~12100 yuan / ton at the end of 12, which rose to 9.09%.. In the same period, the price of polypropylene staple was basically stable between 12400~12800 yuan / ton, and did not follow the rising price of raw materials.

Import and export /p >

cotton imports fell sharply compared with the same period last year, and the output of 6 chemical fiber varieties increased. In 2013, China's cotton import data showed a doldrums.

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, 1~12 months in 2013, China imported 4 million 148 thousand tons of cotton, a decrease of 985 thousand and 200 tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 9~12 tons in 19.20%.2013 years. China's total imports of cotton were 1 million 123 thousand and 900 tons, down 246 thousand and 300 tons compared with the same period last year, and the domestic output of chemical fiber varieties varied by 17.98%.2013.

According to customs statistics, in 2013 1~12, the export volume of nylon 6 filament, nylon staple, viscose filament and viscose staple fiber were 57 thousand and 300 tons, 4 thousand and 200 tons, 62 thousand and 300 tons and 188 thousand and 500 tons respectively, all of which decreased from 2.33% to 34.89%, while the export volume of 6 varieties, such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber and spandex, increased from the same period last year.

[maximum export growth] acrylic fiber tow (increased by 176.92% over the same period)

reasons: in 2013 1~12, the export volume of acrylic fiber tow in China was 3 thousand and 600 tons, an increase of 176.92%. over the same period last year. On the one hand, export volume of Bangladesh and Pakistan and other countries with traditional main export flows grew steadily; on the other hand, non major export markets also welcomed development opportunities, especially the number of exports to Turkey increased significantly.

In 2013 1~12, China's acrylic fiber tow exported 1440.95 tons to Turkey, an increase of 1440.55 tons compared with the same period last year.

[maximum export reduction] nylon 6 filament (decreased by 34.89% compared to the same period)

reasons: compared with 2012, the main export flow of nylon 6 filament in China has not changed, and is still in South Korea, Vietnam, China, Hongkong and other regions.

However, due to the poor global economic environment and the adverse effects of the appreciation of the renminbi, the number of exports decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the decrease was as high as 34.89%.

[import reduction maximum] viscose filament (decreased by 86.67% compared to the same period)

comprehensive performance: import side, in 2013 1~12 months, the imports of polyester staple fiber, nylon 6 filament, spandex, acrylic staple and viscose staple fiber increased by 5 to 0.51% from 35.10% over the same period last year.

At the same time, the import volume of 5 kinds of polyester filament, nylon staple fiber, acrylic fiber top, acrylic fiber tow and viscose filament decreased compared with the same period last year. Viscose filament decreased by 86.67% compared with the same period last year.

profit polyester and viscose lingering low nylon and spandex continue to improve.

from the gross profit situation, in the four quarter of 2013, the processing profit of main chemical fiber varieties such as polyester and viscose remained at a low level, and even some products were losing for a long time, but the profitability of nylon and spandex continued to improve.

[worst profit deterioration] polyester filament (reduced by 39.51%)

reasons: it is estimated that in the 1~4 quarter of 2013, the average gross profit of PET filament POY150D/48F was 147 yuan / ton, compared with the 1~3 quarter average profit significantly reduced by 39.51%. fourth quarter, polyester filament industry profits from positive to negative.

Upstream raw materials PTA and MEG prices remain relatively high level, while polyester filament under the pressure of oversupply, price promotions, market prices continue to fall to the new low in the year, processing profit margins sharply reduced.

post market forecast: during the Spring Festival, the domestic polyester spun spinning filament plant maintenance plan is relatively concentrated. More than 20 production enterprises such as Jiangsu Sheng Hong, Shaoxing Yifeng, Hengyi petrochemical, Hangzhou Tianyuan, Wuxi Huaya and so on, have been overhauled, and the total production capacity has reached more than 4 million 500 thousand tons.

The reduction of market supply is bound to form a certain support for the price, and the extent of industrial loss will be reduced.

[profit growth is most significant]

spandex (expanding chain ratio by 55.55%) reasons: it is estimated that in the 1~4 quarter of 2013, the average gross profit of the spandex was 3520 yuan / ton, the average profit increased by 1~3 over the 1~3 quarter. In the slow demand season of 11~12 months, the production and marketing rhythm of the spandex market gradually slowed down, but because of the pressure on the stock market is still in the range of tolerance, the market price center of gravity change is not obvious.

Among them, 40D spandex mainstream paction price basically fluctuated within the range of 50000~53000 yuan / ton.

So overall, production profits are still very impressive.

post market forecast: the spandex industry is expected to continue to boom until 2015.

On the one hand, there is no pressure on the cost side. In the past 2013~2014 years, the upstream PTMEG capacity has been concentrated, and the new capacity is expected to reach 560 thousand tons. With the substantial increase in supply, the market price is expected to be under pressure.

On the other hand, the supply and demand side is tense. In the past 2013~2014 years, spandex's capacity has increased by about 30 thousand tons. The cumulative capacity growth of two years is less than 6% of the total capacity, while the demand growth rate has remained above 20%.

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the starting rate is below 80%, and the lowest value of polyester staple fiber is .

from the start up of textile sub sectors, the main chemical fiber varieties in the fourth quarter continue to deteriorate, and the operating rate is generally maintained below the 80% line.

[average operating rate lowest] polyester staple fiber (operating rate is less than 70%)

reasons: 2013 in the four quarter, polyester staple fiber is still the lowest operating rate in the industry, with an average operating rate of around 65%.

The main reason is the continuation of the deficit situation of the production enterprises, and showing a certain trend of expansion.

According to statistics, the average profit of polyester staple fiber 1.4D*38mm in 2013 was 1~12 yuan / ton, which was 4.5 percentage points lower than that in 2013, which averaged 1~9 yuan in 2013.

post market forecast: it is estimated that the starting rate of domestic direct spinning polyester and short industry will remain at a low level in the first quarter of 2014.

According to statistics, Jiangsu DESAY, Huaxi Village, Xiang Lu petrochemical and other enterprises have different levels of maintenance plan, about 1 million tons of capacity before and after the Spring Festival parking inspection.

[average operating rate highest]

The reason why spandex (operating rate is more than 90%) is explored: in the four quarter of 2013, the spandex industry started to maintain a high operating rate, with an average operating rate of around 93%.

Although the order of the terminal textile is reduced, the enthusiasm of the weaving enterprises has dropped. However, the inventory level of the spandex production enterprises remained relatively stable due to the tight supply in the early period.

On the other hand, production profits are still huge, and the industry's operating rate has been maintained at a high level.

post market forecast: the weaving rate of downstream weaving enterprises has gradually declined, and the demand for spandex has been further reduced. However, due to short inventory pressure in the short term industry and excessive downtime losses, spandex production enterprises are expected to maintain a higher load operation.

inventory. China's main port's external cotton inventory is down, and the backlog of chemical fiber varieties has improved.

the four quarter of 2013, China's main port cotton inventory overall showed a downward trend.

by the end of December, port inventory dropped to about 100 thousand tons.

Due to the delay in picking, processing and pportation of India and the United States cotton, the cargo ship which was originally scheduled for shipment in late November will be postponed to early December.

However, with the slow increase in port volume and the expiration of the tax quota at the end of the year, cotton has been cleared by India and cotton, and the progress of customs clearance has been increased.

At present, some contracts are cancelled due to the expiration of the quota, so the pressure on the cotton storage capacity outside the main port in China in early 2014 will be limited.

In the four quarter of 2013, the backlog of major chemical fiber varieties in China has improved, and the stock of polyester filament, polyester staple, viscose short fiber and other products declined to a certain extent.

[inventory reduction maximum]

polyester staple (decline of 55%) reasons: as at the end of 12 in 2013, the average stock of polyester staple fiber was at the level of 10 days, which was significantly lower than that at the end of 9. On the one hand, the low price promotion of chemical fiber factory led to the recovery of sales volume; on the other hand, the production and production of chemical fiber factories increased, resulting in a decrease in the actual supply of 55%..

Therefore, the overall inventory of the industry continued to decline, the previous high inventory manufacturers fell to the lower middle level, and the gap between different manufacturers is also shrinking.

post market forecast: during the Spring Festival, the downstream mills stopped production and increased production, and the market demand was facing serious challenges.

However, enterprises such as Huaxi Village, Jiangsu and DESAY also have corresponding parking overhaul plans. The industry will start to decline as a whole, and the supply will decrease.

[inventory growth maximum]

spandex (increase of 48%). For the end of 12 2013, the average stock of the spandex industry was at the level of 23 days, which increased significantly compared with the end of 9. 48%., with the textile orders falling into recession, the production enthusiasm of the weaving factories fell, the raw material purchasing cycle became longer, and the volume of the spandex market showed a downward trend overall, especially the 40D spandex product with the highest yield decreased significantly.

However, some weaving factories undertake a small amount of light and thin fabrics, which increases the demand for fine denier yarn, and the 20D/30D spandex volume increases slightly.

post market forecast: at present, textile enterprises are gradually entering the stage of production restriction and production shutdown. Even if the demand of powerful enterprises is stable, it is difficult to support the overall situation of weak demand.

In addition, enterprises face the pformation of financial year and the situation of shortage of funds is more serious. Weaving enterprises mostly focus on repayment, and the purchasing attitude of raw materials is cautious, mostly based on demand purchase.

Therefore, under the condition of poor production and marketing, the overall inventory is expected to continue to increase.

Terminal > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > weaving factory < /a > stop production peak comes ahead of schedule. Accounts receivable recovery is more difficult than in previous years /p >

in early 2014, with the severe shrinkage of the number of terminal textile orders, the weaving factories in Shengze, Changshu, Xiaoshao, Haining and other places came to a halt. From January 15, 2014 to 20, the market was ushered in a large period of downtime.

From the point of time, the stoppage time of textile enterprises is obviously earlier than that of previous years, and the recovery of accounts receivable is obviously more difficult than in previous years.