PTA Spot Market Continues To Decline

　　 Zhengzhou PTA futures 25 weak shocks, the main 1405 contract closed 6472 yuan / ton, down 74 yuan / ton. PTA's recent decline is the impact of collectively falling industrial products. On the one hand, the industrial chain is weak. Today, the volume of trading is shrinking but the strength of the empty ones is amazing. In the early stage of operation, the idea of shorting continues.

The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures fell slightly in Asia early on Tuesday. The period rose overnight in the US market and was optimistic due to the economic data. As of 15:00 Beijing time, crude oil futures in April closed 102.34 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.48 US dollars.

Iraq plans to export crude oil in the Persian Gulf Basrah crude oil terminal 2 million 160 thousand barrels / day, down from 2 million 230 thousand barrels per day in February, March. Iraq will export 43 crude oil in March, totalling 66 million 800 thousand barrels, and total exports of 62 million 300 thousand barrels in February. Nigeria, the largest producer of crude oil in Africa, plans to export 62 ships of crude oil in April, totaling 57 million barrels or 1 million 900 thousand barrels per day, with a decrease of 4.8% in sunrise volume compared with March. The country planned to export 68 ships in March, totaling 61 million 900 thousand barrels or 2 million barrels per day.

　　 PTA Futures opened slightly lower, the East China PTA spot market atmosphere wait-and-see, offer 6300 yuan / ton to send, sporadic delivery of 6200-6250 yuan / ton, PTA spot supply pressure is difficult to alleviate, downstream polyester production and marketing dull, spot purchase intention is low, traders mentality is not good, wait-and-see many, the real market continues to follow.

In February 26th, the PTA settlement index was 62.58, down 1.32 points compared with yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 38.50% from the 101.75 highest point on 2011 22 on 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to date). PTA market continues to decline, the market is light.

PTA factory, March Listed price The implementation of 6800 yuan / ton, February settlement price of 6850 yuan / ton, the operating rate of 77%, inventory in about 7-11 days. Most of the dealers are on the sidelines, with quotations at around 6550-6350, and there are some concessions when they are actually traded.

Cushing's stock in the US crude oil delivery site has been sharply reduced, boosted by US crude oil, and Asian PX quotas have continued to decline. The downstream market of polyester and silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped slightly, and production and sales have averaged 7-8%. Weaving enterprises are more cautious in purchasing, and polyester factories mainly rely on shipping volume.

PTA due to increased losses, the factory plans to overhaul next week, but short-term inventory pressure is still large, while the cost side is low, PTA is still vulnerable in the short term.

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From the perspective of industrial supply and demand, the new capacity of PX in February is mainly planned by the end of 13, and the second sets of Tenglong are more likely to be put into production. The real pressure of PX is reflected in the second half of 14 years. We are not too pessimistic about PX in the 1-2 quarter. Xiang Lu 4 million 400 thousand tons PTA (6434, -28.00, -0.43%) device has been discharged, and has little effect on the price. In January, the PTA operating rate was maintained at 80%, and the polyester operating rate dropped from 76% to 64%. The weaving rate of terminal looms dropped to 68% at the beginning of the month, reaching 25%. According to the experience gained over the past years, the weaving weaving rate before the Spring Festival can be reduced to 0, and after the Lantern Festival, it will be opened one after another. In line with the existing inventory data, we can see that PTA and polyester products are in the stage of increasing inventory. There will be a de stocking process in the later stage. When PTA starts to fall, the price of PX will also decline. Polyester and PTA enter the inventory phase (the relationship between inventory and price is based on the special report - "inventory based identification cycle"). We have to wait until after the end of February.

In terms of industrial profits, the PX profit in January dropped from 150 US dollars to 100, while the low profit was only 74 dollars / ton. PTA increased its deficit in January, with a loss of 200-300 yuan per ton in December and a loss of 400-600 yuan / ton per ton in January, resulting in a 13 year high since February.

The sharp drop in PTA spot led to the improvement of terminal profits. From the point of view of profit structure, the PTA link is losing a lot at present. We anticipate that in February, polyester raw material prices will further decline, squeeze the space of polyester raw materials, and PX will follow closely into the down channel. The profit space will be further compressed, and PTA profits may be eased but can not change the PTA bear market expectations.