China'S Foreign Trade Outlook 2009

From the external point of view, the world economic situation in 2009 will be more severe and complicated. Uncertainties and uncertainties may continue to increase.

First, the downward trend of the world economy is a foregone conclusion, and external demand may be further weakened.

At present, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has evolved into a global financial crisis of "one hundred years".

Although developed countries and many developing countries have introduced measures to stabilize financial order and stimulate economic growth, the restoration of global market confidence and the solution of institutional and structural problems need a process.

Especially in the US real estate market, there is no sign of stabilization. The subprime mortgage problem is still likely to deteriorate, so that more financial institutions' bad credit will emerge, and the turbulence in the financial market will continue for some time.

Many agencies expect 2009 to be the most sluggish year in world economic and trade, and uncertain instability will continue to increase.

In November 6th, the International Monetary Fund IMF lowered the world economic growth forecast in 2009 to 2.2%, and the developed countries as a whole dropped by 0.3%, the first decline since World War II, of which the United States dropped 0.7%, the euro area dropped 0.5%, and Japan fell 0.2%.

The slowdown in world economic growth will inevitably drag on the growth of international trade.

Two, the competition in the international market is more intense and the threat of trade protectionism is increasing.

Unlike the financial crisis in Asia that only affected some markets in 1997, the developed economies such as the US and Europe were plunged into financial crisis, which affected the stable operation of Global trade.

It is expected that in 2009, the growth of world trade volume will not only slow down or even stagnate because of the economic downturn, but also due to the bankruptcy or takeover of some financial institutions or the credit deterioration and shrinkage of some countries or regions, the risk of performance and settlement risk in import and export trade will be further increased.

The outbreak of the financial crisis made the breakthrough of the Doha round even more bleak.

The further shrinkage of international trade will aggravate the fierce competition in the international market. Many countries and regions have slowed down their economic growth and the unemployment rate has increased. They may adopt more conservative trade policies and measures, and the threat of Global trade protectionism will increase.

Although there is a strong demand for economic and trade cooperation among major economies, the future international trade environment is still not optimistic.

Three, financial markets will continue to be volatile, and the prices of commodities such as crude oil in the international market may fluctuate substantially.

In recent years, prices of primary commodities have generally declined in the international market as market confidence wavered and global demand weakened.

This will help China expand imports and reduce the rising cost pressure of import and export enterprises.

However, the relationship between the international primary market and the financial market is becoming more and more closely related. The turbulence in the financial market will inevitably lead to price fluctuation in the commodity market.

In addition, the primary product market is highly monopolized. For example, OPEC recently proposed reducing oil production to maintain the international market price of crude oil.

At the same time, governments' massive injection of funds into the financial market and the uncertain trend of the US dollar exchange rate will aggravate the price fluctuation of international commodity markets.

In addition, geopolitical factors may trigger a sharp concussion in the prices of primary products in the international market.

From the current situation, the impact of the deterioration of the international economic situation on China's import and export may be further deepened.

However, there are still many favorable conditions and positive factors to maintain steady and rapid development of China's foreign trade.

First, China's export industry has already formed a strong competitive advantage.

Since the reform and opening up, China has formed a number of competitive industries and enterprises, and the comprehensive supporting capacity and the comparative advantage of labor force are still more obvious.

Especially in recent years, enterprises have continuously optimized the structure of export products, strengthened R & D of independent intellectual property products, and actively nurtured and developed their own brand products.

Two. In the case of the international economic downturn, China's exports still have obvious competitive advantages.

The weakening of international market demand will first affect the demand of high-end products, while China's exports mainly belong to medium and low grade, most of them are daily consumer goods, and their advantages in quality, price and performance are quite obvious.

In the case of unstable consumer income expectations, the demand for Chinese exports may increase, to some extent, an opportunity.

Three, export enterprises are constantly improving their ability to cope with changes in the external environment.

Since the reform in 2005, the RMB has appreciated by 20%, the labor cost has been rising, and the export tax rebate rate of some commodities has been reduced.

Since 2008, the demand for the international market has weakened, but the export in the first three quarters has maintained a relatively fast growth momentum on the basis of the export of 12181 billion dollars in 2007, which fully demonstrates that the ability of Chinese enterprises to cope with the changes in the external environment is significantly enhanced.

Four. There is still great potential for emerging and developing markets.

With the in-depth implementation of the export market diversification strategy, China's exports to developing emerging markets such as Brazil and India have continued to grow rapidly in recent years. However, the proportion of these countries' exports to China's total exports is still not high, and there is potential for further opening up the market.

Recently, in response to the impact of changes in the international economic situation on China's import and export and alleviating the pressure of business operation, the state has raised the export tax rebate rate of some textile, clothing, toys, furniture and high value-added electromechanical products.

At the same time, the state will further improve the external trade environment, including import and export management, customs facilitation, import and export tax and foreign exchange management, take necessary measures to support the export of advantageous enterprises and products, encourage financial institutions to increase loans to small and medium-sized export enterprises, broaden the direct financing channels for small and medium-sized enterprises, and increase imports of products that are needed at home.

Comprehensive analysis, in 2009, China's foreign trade development is facing both opportunities and challenges, and the overall opportunities outweigh the challenges.

We should fully estimate the complexity and severity of the international economic environment, profoundly understand the importance and arduousness of maintaining the steady and rapid development of China's foreign trade, and enhance our sense of crisis. We must also correctly recognize the favorable conditions and positive factors, constantly improve policies, strengthen enterprise management, speed up the pace of structural adjustment and technological innovation, strengthen confidence and respond effectively, and strive to resolve and deal with external shocks.