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Why Is The Weakening Of Export Caused Huge Reduction In Orders For Shoe Enterprises?

2014/3/13 12:41:00 47

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According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs (P), the export volume dropped by 18.1% in February (in dollar terms), which is far below the expected growth of 6.8%. Imports increased 10.1% over the same period, higher than expected, and the trade deficit was 22 billion 980 million US dollars.

In January, export growth was as high as 10.6%.

Lv Bin, deputy director of the Customs General Administration, said in an interview with the China Times reporter that the sharp decline in exports in February was related to the Spring Festival, and the plans and arrangements of the various import and export enterprises were different.

Zhang Xiaoji, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference and a researcher from the Ministry of Foreign Economic Research of the National Research Center, also expressed similar views to our reporter.

however, some research institutions believe that the main reasons may be related to the lack of external demand and the ebb of hot money. After the holiday factor has passed, it is difficult for the foreign trade to be optimistic.

And a reality is that foreign trade enterprises do not seem to gain any advantage from the depreciation of the renminbi.

the logic of the huge deficit is .

What is the concept of deficit of 22 billion 980 million? In the past 10 years, there was only one higher than this figure in 2012, and the deficit in February was 31 billion 500 million US dollars.

"it is not surprising that there is a trade deficit in some months, especially in Spring Festival."

Zheng Yuesheng, director general of the General Statistics Department of the General Administration of customs, responded that since the accession to the WTO, there has been a marked increase in the monthly trade deficit in January 2003 and March, February 2004, March 2010, February 2011, February 2012 and February 2012.

reporters learned that China's Spring Festival holiday started in January 31st, 8 days earlier than last year.

According to the rule of "catching up before the festival and catching up after the festival," the enterprises should advance the commodities exported in February to January.

Zhang Xiaoji said that the low foreign trade in February was due to the Spring Festival factor. This is a special case of our country. What is the situation of foreign trade?

Research institutions believe that the Spring Festival factor is indeed one of the reasons for the huge deficit in February, but not all.

Guo Jin Securities said that in February, the export cliff was beyond the interpretation of the holiday factor. It was due to the lack of external demand, the low tide of hot money, the regulation and control, and other factors. Even if there was a rebound in March, exports in the first quarter will also grow at a low level.

Haitong Securities also said that in February, China's exports unexpectedly dropped by 18.1% over the previous year. The Spring Festival factor was partly due to a drop of 1.6% in the first two months, and the risk of stall might occur. In February, a huge deficit of 23 billion dollars or a sign of hot money outflow would increase the pressure of exchange rate depreciation.

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exchange rate pressure /p >

After P was released, exchange rate was the first to be affected.

according to the March 11th announcement of the China foreign exchange trading center, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1327, down 15 basis points from the previous day, the biggest decline in 19 months.

Compared with 6.0990 of the first trading day of this year, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is close to 0.53%.

An industry insider who did not want to be named said that exports dropped by nearly 20% in February, and the trade deficit of that month was as high as 22 billion 980 million US dollars. This is the chief culprit that triggered a sharp fall in the central parity of RMB in P.

Chen Jing, a researcher at Bank of China's head of International Finance Research Institute, also expressed this view.

customs data show that China's exports in February dropped by 18.1% compared with the same period last year, and the expected export growth of 10.6% in January was in sharp contrast. Imports were flat compared with last month. At the same time, PPI fell 2% compared with the same period last year, a further decline from 1.6% in January, a 7 month low.

Smith, a commodities analyst with P > Schneider Electric, thinks that the import and export data and inflation data indicate that China's economic growth is slowing down.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the Central Bank of China, at the news conference of the National People's Congress on March 11th, also hinted that the trade deficit had a certain impact on the depreciation of the RMB. P

He said that the analysis of the market in February was divided. Some people also used the data of last year's fourth quarter and January this year to reckon that China's exports are still strong in February this year, and the trade surplus is still relatively large, so it is also predicted that the RMB will appreciate unilaterally.

foreign trade enterprises are in dire straits > /strong > /p >

At P this time, it is foreign trade enterprises who feel empathy.

"we have not benefited from the depreciation of the renminbi".

Li Yufang, deputy general manager of Shanghai Jincheng company, who is engaged in the export of electronic products, told our reporter that although the depreciation of the renminbi appeared to be beneficial to the export enterprises, they had already adopted the method of "locking the exchange rate" to avoid exchange rate risk because of the continued appreciation of the RMB.

Li Yufang said it is difficult to predict the future trend of exchange rate, or choose to lock in exchange rate insurance.

Since the beginning of this year, the RMB has been losing its momentum for P.

In February, exports were almost entirely weak: exports from the mainland to the United States dropped by 11%, exports to the EU dropped by 14%, Hongkong fell by 24%, and China's exports to BRICs fell by more than 20%.

From the perspective of corporate reaction, China's foreign trade environment is also not optimistic.

"foreign trade is becoming more and more difficult."

According to Li Yufang, in recent years, the foreign trade situation is getting worse and worse. Besides the reduction of orders, the labor force is not stable. Few workers can work in a factory for a long time. Although they have been recruiting workers, it is still difficult to make up for the shortage of labor.

"there are orders, workers are not enough, there are workers, there is no order."

Li Yufang said this is the most common problem they face.

Jin Jianhua, general manager of the National Committee of CPPCC and the Shanghai Pei Luo Meng Western clothing company, said that the domestic textile and garment industry is facing the problem of recruitment difficulties. "On the other hand, it is unable to recruit people. On the other hand, the cost of labor is high. Even though the welfare benefits of workers have been raised a lot, they have changed from 4 to 2, and every day they have to add fish and meat to the cafeteria. Recruitment difficulties are still very serious."

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Zhao Min, director of a shoe enterprise, told reporters that they were seriously affected by low cost areas such as Southeast Asia. Many old customers have turned their eyes to Southeast Asia, causing their orders to decrease sharply. P

In the interview, the reporter learned that, influenced by the low cost and TPP (p Pacific Partnership Agreement) in Southeast Asia, more and more enterprises have or will wish to move the factory to Southeast Asia.

"Southeast Asia and other low cost areas have some impact on us, so we started increasing investment in R & D at the beginning of the enterprise."

Yuan Zhimin, chairman of the National People's Congress and chairman of golden hair technology, said in an interview with our reporter.

annual trend is difficult to see surprise

"in the first half of last year, false trade led to a high base. The figures for the first few months were definitely not good. I am optimistic about the whole year, and the more domestic demand is, the more the company will go out."

Zhang Xiaoji believes that some of the less competitive small businesses have gone bankrupt, and the main market this year has been warm again, which will benefit our exports.

but despite Zhang Xiaoji's saying that "this year will not be worse than last year," he admits that the market for developing countries will not be very good this year.

Haitong Securities said that, considering that the emerging market turmoil was not completely subsided, exports in March were still -2.1%, and import growth slowed to 2.4%. The trade deficit forecast for March was still $9 billion 170 million.

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst of Shenyang Wanguo, said: "the anomalies of data in 1 and February are definitely related to the Spring Festival. But we should also see that the world economy is complex and changeable. It is a general improvement rather than a marked improvement. With the gradual disappearance of China's cost advantage, the export will probably not improve significantly as it did in January."

Li Huiyong believes that when we all expect the world economy to be relatively good, the government has reduced the growth target of imports and exports in 2014 from 8% last year to 7.5%, indicating that the state has taken full account of the seriousness of the situation.

Looking forward to the whole year, he still maintained his previous judgement. This year there will be improvement but not much, and exports will increase by about 9%. Moreover, it will maintain a surplus of 260 billion -2700 billion dollars throughout the year.

"January is too good-looking, February is too ugly, March is closer to the actual situation, on the one hand, it will continue to be hit by the high base last year, on the other hand, it will benefit from the recent devaluation of the RMB, two phase offset.

In the future, China's import and export performance will be more focused on the fundamentals of the international market and its own industrial competitiveness.

As for policy support, we can expect it, but we can not count on it. "

Bai Ming, an expert in the Ministry of Commerce, said.