The Reason For Appreciation Is Hard To Bear, And The Bottom Of The RMB Is 6.24.

Since March 17th, the bank has widened the US dollar to RMB. exchange rate The upper and lower floating intervals extend from 1% per day to 2%. Hong Kong businessmen involved in the import of food from the mainland have already expressed their expectations for the fall in the cost of RMB depreciation. In their eyes, the expansion of the exchange rate has more advantages than disadvantages. However, businesses such as exporters and exporters, who are vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates, may have to increase their currency hedging operations.

With regard to the withdrawal of the renminbi, the brokers will soon be able to make a quick transition, and it will be no longer possible to sing a good tune. The securities market expects to depreciate by 10% by the end of next year.

As early as last month, the line of conduct was publicized in advance, and it was told by action that the speculator's exchange rate could rise or fall. The decline in the past two weeks of RMB has disappeared since last May, and the widening of the volatility is already within market expectations. The upward and downward floating range has changed from 1% to 2%, doubling the magnitude of elasticity, but in the eyes of some prominent economists in the mainland, it is still far from enough to reflect the impact of foreign exchange supply and demand on exchange rate. Yu Yongding, member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, advocated that the US dollar should go up and down against the RMB. Floating interval It should be extended to 7.5% per day.

If a man wants to speak to Yu's advice, he will listen to it and allow it to be allowed. Free floating There is no fundamental difference. At this stage, it is radical. However, the exchange rate volatility is too narrow, the central bank's behavior to ensure that the upward decline of the RMB does not exceed the limit of the interval, frequent access to the market is inevitable, so that foreign exchange intervention normalization. People's Bank is China's central bank, instead of Tsim Sha Tsui's changing shop, introducing greater flexibility for the Exchange Volatility, helping people exit normal foreign exchange operations and making room for higher level monetary policy planning, which can play a positive role in both interest rate and interest rate liberalization, which are closely related to monetary reform.

The internationalization of the RMB is a central policy of the central government. It is only an urgent step to expand the exchange rate volatility. The remaining two possibilities, though stimulating the export with low value, can not be ruled out. But if people are too aggressive, once the capital outflows, the liquidity of the mainland may be negatively affected. Once the situation is out of control, I am afraid that the gains will not be worth the candle.

In March 6th, according to the median price of $6.1261 and the downward limit of 1% at the time, and the biggest reduction in the middle price since May 2012, the old man made a conclusion that the RMB's chances of wearing 6.24 yuan to 1 dollars were not large. However, this estimate is based on the assumption that the purpose of punishing the speculators and the further reduction of the intermediate price is not high enough. If the central bank intends otherwise, it will be hard to say whether the renminbi will fall enough or not.

During the steady rise of exchange rate, one-way appreciation is the hard truth of the market's conviction. No matter what kind of assets, the more people think they will go in one direction, the more common they earn through leverage. Business is difficult and business is weak. Gambling is easy to rise. Appreciation is the absolute principle. There is a natural market for derivatives linked to the people. The cumulative target redemption Target Redemption (Forward), previously reported, has a nominal value of up to US $350 billion. Customers, in addition to hedge funds and affluent private investors, also include many troubled enterprises.

Such derivatives are not a normal currency hedging tool. Once the RMB loses its agreement on the terms of sale, such as last Friday's 6.15 to 1 dollars, then the US dollar will rise to 0.1 yuan (RMB against the US dollar) against the US dollar, and buyers will suffer a disproportionate loss.

Product terms vary from contract to contract, but the essence is inseparable from the betting between the buyer and the seller. The basic direction of the RMB does not need to be reversed. Volatility is enough to make investors uneasy. With the possibility of high leverage, it is not surprising that the contract holders receive the margin calls (the margin supplement) day and night.