Seed Cotton Opening Price Is Below 5.5 Yuan / Kg Or Loss.

Central Document No. 1 pointed out that in 2014, Xinjiang will launch a pilot project to subsidize cotton target price, and determined the implementation of this year's direct subsidy policy in Xinjiang. Later, with the retreat of the current cotton purchase and storage policy, the target price of cotton direct subsidy will be formed in the mode of "cotton planting cost plus basic income", which means that the government's direct intervention in cotton prices through administrative means will start to market regulation.

at present Direct subsidy policy Details have not yet been determined, but learned from the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps, this year's Cotton Subsidy Program in Xinjiang will be subsidized by 380 yuan per mu. According to the current conversion of Xinjiang's 350 kg / mu yield, the average subsidy is 1.08 kg / mu. According to the survey data last year, the cost of Xinjiang cotton planting is 2300 yuan / mu, and the selling price of seed cotton is 6.58 yuan / kg. That is to say, if the opening price of seed cotton is less than 5.5 yuan per kilogram in the new year, cotton farmers will lose money.

In recent years cotton With the continuous decrease of planting area, the planting area in Xinjiang has been relatively stable, and this year's direct subsidy policy in Xinjiang is conducive to stabilizing the cotton planting area within the territory. The mainland has no target price subsidies this year. Cotton farmers' planting intention has dropped sharply, and more cotton growers have changed their crops or other cash crops. According to the cotton information network of China, a sample survey of cotton producing counties in 13 cotton producing provinces in the whole country showed that the total planting area in 2014 was 63 million 130 thousand mu, which was 6 million 320 thousand mu less than that in 2013, and a decrease of 9%. The total output is estimated to be 6 million 190 thousand tons, a decrease of 9% over the same period. Among them, the intention of planting cotton in Xinjiang fell by 2%, while the intention of planting cotton in the mainland cotton area was generally between 10% and 30%.

In March 5th, Zheng Shang issued a risk warning letter, requiring member units to remind investors in time to enhance the risk awareness and compliance operation of the 1405 contract of cotton futures. The analysis of its necessity is as follows:

First, Risk Reminder The next time is in the zhengmian 1405 contract about 20000 yuan / ton juncture competition for clear results, the long lost and run, the price fell sharply, and three consecutive days of rebound repair. Prices plunged sharply, with a large fluctuation. At this time, it is extremely necessary for the exchange to issue risk warning letters. The risk of cotton futures CF1405 contracts and rising bullion is around 20000 yuan / ton, because in the current supply and demand pattern, cotton prices are easy to fall and rise. Cotton futures CF1405 contracts are rising on the basis of the shortage of warehouse receipts. The intent of the Exchange Risk Reminder is to tell investors that the exchange will not allow the unilateral speculation of market funds, which is a warning effect similar to that of preventive measures.

In addition, look at the gap between positions and warehouse receipts. As of March 5th, cotton futures CF1405 contract held 73128 positions, folded 183 thousand tons, while the exchange warehouse receipt is 7 thousand and 720 tons, the difference is quite different. So, is there any cotton market that can be registered when the price rises to a certain level? According to the data of the cotton fiber inspection bureau, as of March 4th, 7 million 136 thousand tons of cotton for public inspection in the whole country will be delivered to 6 million tons, that is to say, there are 1 million 136 thousand tons of cotton circulating in the market. But since the new flower came into operation in September 2013, even if the downstream consumption of cotton is weak, the consumption of cotton in the market will be about 3 million 920 thousand tons (according to the prediction data of USDA), of which the dumping reserve market supply is 604 thousand tons, and the import cotton 1 million 269 thousand tons. In this way, the cotton that has not been stored is basically consumed by the market. That is, the CF1405 contract of cotton futures does exist in the late stage.