Will The Renminbi Fall Indefinitely?

"P" was forced by reporters to "catch up and rush". When Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen was asked how long it was for a long period of time at the press conference, she finally made a definition that it might be 6 months or so.

At present, the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > the Federal Reserve "/a" has raised the prospect of increasing interest rates, which has taken the place of QE's withdrawal.

The above statement is interpreted as the Fed will raise interest rates in the spring of 2015, ahead of previous estimates.

What will happen in the international market? Will it exacerbate the recent devaluation of the RMB? Will our monetary policy be adjusted? < /p >

< p > < strong > is Yellen a slip of the tongue or a confidence? < /strong > < /p >

(P) after the end of the two day policy meeting, the Federal Reserve, as expected, reduced the monthly purchasing power of QE from $65 billion per month to $55 billion.

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< p > however, Yellen's subsequent guidance at the press conference on the prospect of raising interest rates surprised investors.

Yellen said that the unemployment rate will not be 6.5% as a guideline for raising interest rates.

Yellen also said that the Fed promised to maintain interest rates at an ultra-low level for a longer period of time, which means raising interest rates for about 6 months after the current asset purchase plan ends.

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< p > "according to the current pace of reducing the scale of QE, the Fed may end up buying debt this fall. Yellen's statement means that the first time the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates may advance to April 2015," read the senior foreign exchange analyst at Bank of communications.

Because this is earlier than the expected rate of interest rise in the market next year, the US dollar index jumped to above 80 points and hit a two week high.

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< p > but there are also some analyses that suggest that the timing of interest rate increase implied by Yellen may be just a slip of the tongue, because she had explicitly mentioned that it would raise interest rates only in the autumn of 2015, so it should not be directly arbitrary.

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Deng Weize, an expert on the issue of < p > International a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Finance < /a >, thinks that Yellen's statement is not a slip of tongue but a confidence in the US economy.

"The Fed's interest rate increase depends mainly on the actual operation of the US economy. No one knows more about the actual situation of the US economy than the chairman of the Federal Reserve," Deng told reporters. "I believe this is not a slip of tongue, but a direct statement of confidence that the US economy will get rid of the decline in weather factors and accelerate recovery."

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Fu Peng, President of the China macro hedge Research Institute, said in an interview that "the purpose of the abolition of the link is to keep the initiative in our hands and avoid" blocking the way back ".

Otherwise, once the unemployment rate drops rapidly, the market will easily generate excessive interest rate hikes and cause turbulence.

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< p > < strong > RMB will fall indefinitely? < /strong > /p >

< p > in view of the support of the US Federal Reserve meeting for the US dollar index, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 109 basis points over the previous trading day on the 20 day, setting a new low for the year.

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< p > in fact, since the expansion of the RMB against the US dollar to 2%, the RMB has fallen against the US dollar for 4 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative depreciation rate of about 0.97%.

"In the past 2 months, the renminbi has almost recalled the appreciation of the past one year, and the following is expected to rebound," said Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and economic cooperation.

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< p > traders admitted that the widening of the RMB exchange rate volatility meant that the market rules had changed, whether enterprises, banks or regulators needed time to digest the impact of this new policy.

"Although there are occasional large purchases of foreign exchange by Chinese capital, there are no obvious signs of intervention."

Fu Peng told reporters, "at present, the price of the renminbi is quite sensitive. In recent days, the market and monetary authorities are exploring the bottom line."

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< p > although the central bank is committed to expanding the floating rate of RMB exchange rate, it will make the market play a bigger role in the process of exchange rate formation in the future.

However, the central bank also said that the necessary adjustments will be made in the future to avoid significant fluctuations in the exchange rate.

So what is the low level of the RMB exchange rate and what is the bottom line that the central bank can tolerate? < /p >

< p > Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research at the China Merchants Securities Development Research Center, judged that the low point of RMB may appear in the two quarter, the lowest level is 6.24, and the possibility of short-term fall to 6.3 is very small.

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"P", "the central bank will allow greater adjustment in the RMB exchange rate so as to clearly establish a bilateral wave mechanism and punish malicious arbitrage speculation.

In addition, the moderate depreciation of the RMB meets the fundamentals, "said Liu Weiming, senior international financial analyst at CITIC Bank. The renminbi is acceptable to the US dollar in the 6.3-6.5 range.

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< p > < strong > will the central bank reduce the deposit in the two quarter? < /strong > /p >

< p > < < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp > > market > /a >, the recent depreciation of RMB is not only an accidental exchange rate fluctuation, but also a window for the outside to observe China's economy.

The latest statistics released by the Statistics Bureau show that China's economic growth has been significantly downward this year.

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Zhou Hao, economist at ANZ bank, predicts that if China's economic growth is less than 7.5% in the first quarter, the central bank may relax monetary policy, increase financial expenditure and reduce the deposit reserve ratio.

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< p > in addition to the pressure from domestic economic downturn, with the gradual withdrawal of the Federal Reserve, triggering the withdrawal of international hot money may bring short-term shocks to domestic liquidity.

Liu Weiming said: "at that time, the central bank may take measures, including lowering the deposit.

But it may not come too fast, and the central bank needs to watch all kinds of data. "

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< p > market participants also cautioned that with the pace of the withdrawal of QE and interest rates from the Federal Reserve, the domestic money market will be tighter. Therefore, the risks of local debt, whether the super day debt will be replayed, the security of various "treasures" and the financing chain of commodities should be paid attention to.

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< p > < strong > related news < /strong > < /p >

< p > < strong > New York gold price fell 19 days < /strong > /p >

< p > New York gold price fell for third consecutive trading days on the 19 th.

On the same day, the gold futures market on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the most active gold futures in April 2014, closed at $1341.3 an ounce, down 17.7 dollars from the previous trading day, or 1.3%.

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After the end of the day's trading on the gold futures market, the Federal Reserve of the United States concluded its monetary policy meeting and announced that it would reduce the size of monthly asset purchases from 65 billion US dollars to US $55 billion from April.

The Fed also adjusts the forward-looking guidance on the federal funds rate.

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< p > gold price rose to $1392 an ounce last week, and it seems to have hit the recent high point, and may now be testing for $1300.

Market analysts believe that the main driving force for the recent rise in gold prices is shorting up, and the gold is long term < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > investment < /a > lacks solid foundation.

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