China'S Foreign Trade Enterprises Are At A Loss What To Do.

　　 RMB Devaluation is theoretically beneficial to export, and some small export enterprises that can instantly settle foreign currency may benefit from it, but foreign trade enterprises with larger volume of trading may not be able to feel the positive impact of this round of depreciation.

There are many divergent opinions about the "round down" in the current round of RMB, and many foreign trade enterprises are at a loss when the next psychological barrier is concerned about 6.2.

On Thursday, the yuan continued to decline against the US dollar and ended at a 6.2275 year low.

A number of market participants believe that the weakness of the Chinese economy at the beginning of the year constitutes the basis for the current round of RMB falling. The guidance and empty emotions of regulators also constitute a short-term force.

At the same time, although some foreign exchange enterprises will benefit from the depreciation of the renminbi, some foreign trade enterprises that are locked in the exchange rate will suffer from "ups and down". Many southeast coastal export enterprises say that the clear trend of RMB exchange rate is the greatest help to enterprises.

　　 Multiple factors cause RMB to depreciate.

Since mid February, the depreciation of the RMB has become the norm. Since March 17th, the RMB's fluctuation against the US dollar has expanded to 2%, so far it has been down 4 days.

At the beginning of yesterday, the RMB immediately dropped sharply, hitting 6.2340 in the middle. Although the gap narrowed after noon, it still closed at 6.2275, setting the biggest intraday decline after the RMB expanded by 0.52%.

A number of market participants said that the weak economic situation since the beginning of the year has become the basis for weakening the renminbi. Recently, a number of agencies have lowered the forecast of China's GDP growth this year.

Goldman Sachs's March 19th study downgraded China's GDP growth rate from 7.6% to 7.3% in 2014. The agency's strategist even reported that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter was significantly reduced from 6.7% to 5% due to disappointing trading and consumption data in 1~2.

Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities Greater China, expects that the renminbi will depreciate in the next few months. The main reason is the weakening domestic economy. It is estimated that the GDP growth rate will be 7.2% in the first quarter. In this case, there is a possibility of reducing the reserve requirement ratio.

From the market level, the current empty sentiment is widespread. On the one hand, because of the continued depreciation of the RMB, especially after breaking through 6.2 of the market psychological point, it leads to more short accumulation. On the other hand, the previous super Japanese debt default and the outbreak of many kinds of default events make investors worry that China may face a large area of credit risk.

In addition, from the international point of view, the Fed announced on the 19 day that it would reduce the size of the monthly purchase debt by 10 billion US dollars to 55 billion US dollars, and indicated that it would increase interest rates in about 6 months after the withdrawal of quantitative easing (QE), strengthening the anticipation of US interest rate hike ahead. On the following 20 days, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.1460, setting a new low in the year. Such a downward trend is easily interpreted by the market as a signal of further depreciation.

　 Market and central bank mutual trial bottom line?

Yesterday, the difference between the highest point of the RMB spot exchange rate and the middle price of the day has reached 880 basis points. Fu Peng, chief macroeconomic adviser of Galaxy futures, told the first Financial Daily reporter: "at present, it may have reached the psychological bottom line of the central bank. The current situation should be the bottom line for the market to test each other."

A foreign trader also told reporters: "now depreciation It may continue, and the location is not very easy to say. Basically, the market and the central bank are observing each other. "

Before the yuan fell to 6.2 against the US dollar, many institutions, including Goldman Sachs, said that 6.2 is a key psychological point. Once the market is broken, the market will be further concentrated, which will further suppress the RMB exchange rate, which will accelerate the downward trend of the RMB exchange rate.

"The reason why 6.2 is a psychological point is partly because it is a crucial integer pass, and on the other hand, it may be related to the investor's lock in price theoretically. If it is the latter, it needs to have a clear grasp of all customers' trading information, but it is very difficult." China Merchants Bank [-0.94% Fund Research Report] analyst Liu Dongliang told reporters.

According to foreign media reports, there will be a large number of products in the RMB exchange rate of 6.15~6.20, which will trigger the exercise of rights, and the holders will face losses.

However, from yesterday's situation, the 6.2 short squeeze did not significantly accelerate the downward trend of the RMB. After falling below the 6.23 mark, it has been in a sideways shock.

The market began to care about where the next key point is. Zhao Qingming, an expert on international financial issues, told the "First Financial Daily" reporter: "the central bank's psychological position should be 6.25, that is, at the top 6.04 of the previous transaction, down 3%."

The Research Report of Founder Securities [-2.78% fund research report believes that the RMB spot exchange rate should depreciate to around 6.3 under the background of multiple factors driving RMB devaluation.

"At present, we can not see the presupposition of the central bank, and we feel that the central bank is watching the market with interest, and that the current two-way volatility is also welcome. Unless the extreme situation, the central bank should have no incentive to intervene in the market." Liu Dongliang analysis said. The extreme cases he referred to included the significant devaluation of the Yuan's devaluation, or a continuous drop in the number of days.

　　 The confusion of foreign trade enterprises

For the current round of devaluation, the consensus of many foreign exchange parties is that the weakness is likely to start with management guidance, partly aimed at squeezing overseas arbitrage funds and setting up a two-way fluctuation in the market.

On the other hand, reporters have learned from authoritative channels that as early as the top leaders called for "giving full play to the role of exports in supporting the national economy", some substantial export promotion policies may be introduced this year to change the unilateral appreciation expectation of RMB or to be included in it.

"At present, China's economy is weak, and even there is a further downward risk. The moderate depreciation of the RMB has an obvious stimulating effect on promoting exports. Although the investors who are making financing copper have suffered heavy losses, the export enterprises in the southeast coastal areas should have obviously felt the warmth of the recent devaluation of the currency." A foreign bank analyst said.

The devaluation of the renminbi is theoretically beneficial to exports, and some small export enterprises that can instantly settle foreign currency may benefit from this, but foreign trade enterprises with larger volume of trading may not be able to feel the positive impact of this round of depreciation.

The head of a large exporter told reporters that his company had suffered the loss of exchange rate brought about by the rapid appreciation of the renminbi last year, and because it had locked the exchange rate with the bank, it did not enjoy any additional benefits during the rapid devaluation.

In anticipation of the unilateral appreciation of the renminbi, the large export companies have locked the exchange rate with banks earlier this year, and if they appreciate, they will operate the risk of digestion by banks. However, after the current turn of the renminbi, the company and the bank settled it to real exchange settlement. But he still can't help asking: if the short term depreciation is going on, then it will start to appreciate quickly.

A number of toy export enterprises have also told reporters that the depreciation of the renminbi has not brought about an increase in export orders, which has made buyers and sellers in a stalemate.

"We worry that the RMB will rebound again after this period of depreciation, so our quoted price has not been adjusted according to the exchange rate changes. The current exchange rate trend is not clear. In case of RMB appreciation, about 5% of our profit margin will be eroded." Gu Wu, general manager of Shenzhen huun Kun Industrial Development Co., Ltd., told reporters.

The head of a large toy export enterprise in Guangdong also complained to reporters yesterday that he hoped the RMB exchange rate could be stabilized as soon as possible, otherwise it would not know how to quote at the Canton Fair next month.

At the same time, some enterprises will also face Imported Cost increase. Liu Qiuping, chief analyst of the West Shinkansen, said that the depreciation of the RMB is not conducive to the import of iron ore, and the cost of import of Chinese steel enterprises is likely to face new shocks.