RMB Spot Exchange Rate Rose Sharply Or Moved To Weak Shocks In Short Term.

　　 RMB The exchange rate against the US dollar changed from 24 to 362 in the early stage, and the spot exchange rate rose by 362 basis points under the stimulation of the middle price increase, setting a maximum appreciation rate in the past 29 odd months. Market participants pointed out that the short-term devaluation of RMB has been deep, and continued devaluation is not recognized by the market. At the same time, the demand for foreign exchange settlement also plays a role of underpinning the exchange rate. However, the current downward pressure on economic growth has increased, and there has been no sufficient basis for the appreciation of the renminbi to resume.

The people's Bank of China authorized the China foreign exchange trading center to announce that on the 24 day, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1452, up 23 basis points from last Friday, ending the downward trend of four consecutive trading days.

In the middle price rally, the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market increased by 86 basis points to 6.2164 against the US dollar, which was mostly 6.2140-6.2231 in most days. The exchange rate rose significantly at the end of the month, reaching a maximum of 6.1882, closing at 6.1888, up 362 basis points or 0.58% from last Friday's closing. The rate of appreciation on a single day has been the highest since October 11, 2011.

Traders said last week Central Bank Widening the floating rate of spot exchange rate against the US dollar and accelerating the depreciation of RMB, the exchange rate declines have exceeded the expectation to a certain extent. Especially after breaking through the 6.20 key position, the market divergence is greater, and the sustainability of the continued depreciation in the short term is not recognized. Last Friday, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar first suppressed and then rose, showing signs of rebound at the beginning, attracting some tentative settlement of the settlement. On Monday, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar ended even more, igniting the short-term sentiment, and as the RMB exchange rate rebounded, dollar The long drawn out gains helped push the appreciation of the renminbi to expand further.

Insiders pointed out that after the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell below the 6.20 pass, the market game increased significantly, indicating that the continued depreciation of the exchange rate was not recognized. Traders said that the amount of foreign exchange purchased by large state-owned banks in recent years was not obvious. In the absence of external intervention, the rebound in the exchange rate reflected the need for market restoration. It also showed that there was still more exuberant demand for settlement at the physical level, or that there was little room for the RMB to continue to depreciate spontaneously.

The Bank of China international research report points out that the recent rebound in domestic currency market interest rates in the inter-bank market means that the central bank's investment in the foreign exchange market has ended, in other words, its guiding operation on the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has come to an end. Since the beginning of the year, the maximum depreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 3%, and the short-term adjustment has been large. At present, the expectation of RMB appreciation has been broken, and the voice of empty RMB has become stronger. The central bank has no need to further guide the depreciation of exchange rate. If the above analysis is correct, then the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate may slow down or even stop for some time.

Also have market People pointed out that the recent slowdown in China's economy can not provide strong support for further rebounding of the renminbi, and there is no sufficient basis for resuming the appreciation trend.