Downward Pressure On The Economy, The United States To Reduce The Impact Of QE Big

Recently, China's economic data have made big financial institutions surprise. According to Goldman Sachs statistics, the growth rate of China's industrial added value has dropped to a low level in 5 years from 1 to February, while the growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods has dropped to a new low in 10 years. The growth rate of fixed asset investment has dropped to a low level in 12 years. The growth rate of fixed asset investment has dropped to 12 in 2014.

Even in the global downturn in China's economy, Louis Kuijs is still very optimistic about China. He has given a high expected value of over 8% of China's GDP growth in 2014. Even so, Louis Kuijs rapidly reduced China's GDP growth rate in March 18th. Similar concerns have triggered a new round of doubts about the "hard landing" of Chinese capital by overseas capital, reducing capital inflow and subsequently reducing it. RMB Appreciation of space.

Therefore, Goldman Sachs expects that the renminbi will continue to depreciate in the coming months based on fears of slower economic growth. "After the expansion of trading range, the future fluctuation of RMB will increase. Because of the recent weakening of the economy, the renminbi will probably depreciate slightly in the short term (within the next few months).

In terms of the recent trend of RMB exchange rate, Peng Bo believes that "the meeting of the Federal Reserve and the situation in Ukraine may have a greater impact."

The Federal Reserve announced its monthly reduction in March 19th. Scale of debt purchase 10 billion US dollars to US $55 billion, and give up 6.5% of the unemployment rate threshold. In March 20th, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar dropped sharply. Experts said that with the expansion of the RMB exchange rate, the Fed's QE will reduce the trend of RMB devaluation in the short term or accelerate the crowding out effect on China's capital market bubble.

　　 Bank of China The report pointed out that the current withdrawal rate of the Federal Reserve will be kept in line with expectations, that is: it is expected that the debt will be fully closed at the end of 2014, and the principal re investment will be stopped before and after the beginning of 2015, and the scale of the balance sheet will be automatically reduced. Interest rates will have to wait until late 2015 or even early 2016.

Jiang Shu pointed out that with the steady progress of the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy, the US dollar is at a strong regional stage. Once the Federal Reserve further reduces the scale of debt purchase and even raises interest rate expectations, the US dollar will further become stronger, so the non US currencies will weaken as a whole. And the renminbi will not be independent of the overall trend of non US currencies.

Therefore, Jiang predicted that the short-term range between the RMB and the US dollar's exchange rate would be between 6.1000 and 6.2000.

Contrary to the divergence of short-term trends, market participants agreed that expanding the volatility of the RMB exchange rate would not change the long-term trend of the renminbi.

CICC said the central bank once again expanded the one-day fluctuation rate of the spot exchange rate of RMB, which would not affect the direction and trend of the RMB's trend. Because the central bank can still guide the market expectations through the adjustment of the middle price, and the directional change of the middle price has greater significance for the market.

Although the depreciation and expansion of the renminbi are considered to be the tools of the central bank, the market will not have much influence. However, the flexible expansion of the RMB exchange rate still makes the financial institutions revaluing the RMB exchange rate trend in 2014.

Bloomberg China economist Tom Orlik told the "International Financial Daily" reporter: "according to Bloomberg survey, the global financial institutions in 2014 the RMB to the U.S. dollar final exchange rate forecast from 6.15 to 5.98, and the exchange rate volatility expanded, further increased the uncertainty of this forecast."

UBS believes that in the next period of time, the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will increase, but this does not represent a new direction of exchange rate trend. In 2014, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar remained at around 6.1.