PTA Will Weaken Again After A Brief Rebound.

< p > supply side, the release of new capacity will weaken the short profit effect brought about by the reduction of production. Demand side, after 4 mid and late June, after the traditional seasonal stocking demand is digested, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > polyester production and marketing < /a > facing downward pressure.

In addition, the futures market has large volume of warehouse receipts, which is also a hidden danger for the future market.

It is expected that the PTA price will rebound after a short rebound.

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< p > < strong > yield reduction supporting short-term market < /strong > < /p >

< p > under the background of the slowdown of macro-economy and the rising cost of capital, the growth rate of PTA capacity in 2014 has been as high as over 30%, making the PTA industry after a long period of losses worse.

Faced with difficulties and pressures, PTA enterprises have shown strong determination to reduce production in recent years.

In 3 and April, Yisheng three sets of 5 million sets of total, 1 million 200 thousand tons of Taiwan chemical industry, 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hengli Dalian and 1 million 200 thousand tons of Helen petrochemical PTA plant have maintenance plans.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > PTA < /a > links substantially reduced production, forcing upstream PX factories to limit production passively.

Due to the reduction in production, domestic PTA enterprises cancelled the contract goods in April, which led to an increase in the stock market of the PX market which tended to be loose.

The PX industry has bid farewell to the era of high profits. As PX fell below 1200 US dollars / ton FOB Korea's important psychological support position, PX enterprises fell into a loss, and the measures to limit production and price protection came out.

India relies on 600 thousand tons of equipment to repair from mid March, and JX plans to reduce production by 20% in 3 and April.

In addition, Qingdao Li Dong, Tenglong aromatics, GS Caltex and Samsung Total and other PX enterprises have planned to reduce the operating rate.

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< p > PX-PTA links cut sharply, making the market stable.

Among them, PX prices narrowed, PTA spot prices rose slightly.

Under this environment, the market mentality of the downstream market has been eased, the price of polyester products has stopped falling, polyester production and sales have risen to the level of rigid demand, and the PTA index has also approached the important pressure level of 6400 yuan / ton.

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< p > < strong > new capacity "haze" not scattered < /strong > /p >

< p > although many sets of devices are being planned or planned to reduce production, the author believes that the rebound intensity led by this round of production reduction is limited.

The following new capacity will break the market's upward trend.

In terms of PX installations, Saudi Satorp70 10000 tons of equipment will be shipped to India and China in March. PetroChina Pengzhou Petrochemical 600 thousand tons and Jurong aromatics 800 thousand tons will be officially released in April and June respectively.

In terms of PTA installations, the 1 million 500 thousand tons of Xiang Lu petrochemical plant was discharged in late March, and another two lines were being tested, and the Yisheng Ningbo 2 million 250 thousand ton plant was planned for trial run in late April.

The release of new capacity will bring pressure on the cost side and supply side again, and will be hedged against the short-term benefits arising from the current reduction in production, limiting the price rebound.

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< p > < strong > demand sustainability is to be considered < /strong > < /p >.

< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > polyester industry < /a > also runs in the recession period.

Since 2011, the operating rate of polyester products has continued to decline to below 80%. Cash flow of polyester products is struggling near the profit and loss balance line, and some of them even suffer losses.

At the beginning of this year, the decline in downstream demand was particularly evident.

According to CCF statistics, polyester production showed a negative growth trend from 1 to February, 6.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. It is estimated that the output of polyester in the first quarter will be reduced by 4.1% compared with the same period last year.

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< p > PTA industry has overcapacity, and the bargaining power of downstream polyester factories to PTA enterprises is constantly increasing. Most of them choose prudent low inventory operation mode.

At present, the procurement terminal has shifted from active stock to phased on-demand procurement, and the production and marketing side mainly takes inventory at low prices.

Therefore, raw material price increases have limited effect on polyester, and once the price of raw materials becomes loose, the production and sale of polyester will atrophy under the influence of "buying up but not buying".

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< p > strong > huge warehouse receipts should not be underestimated < /strong > /p >

Since the middle of February, the price of PTA has continued to rise sharply, and now the arbitrage window is open.

The contract position remained high in May, and the main contract was slow.

In addition, in March of last year, the PTA of Hengli petrochemical and Jiaxing petrochemical company was used as futures delivery brand. In April this year, Ningbo's MITSUBISHI and Jialong Petrochemical Company's PTA was approved as the futures free inspection delivery brand.

This provides policy support to ensure the smooth delivery of PTA futures delivery business.

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< p > the continuous price rise of the price and the support of policies greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of the enterprises to participate in futures delivery.

As of March 21st, there were nearly two months from the final delivery date of the May contract, and the registered warehouse receipt plus effective forecasts exceeded 74 thousand, equivalent to 370 thousand tons of PTA spot.

The repertoire of huge delivery of futures contracts may be staged again, and the September contract will face a big sell-off.

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