RMB Devaluation Temporarily Or Into The Weak Shock Period

Since last Friday, the depreciation trend of the RMB against the US dollar has been repeated. The spot exchange rate rebounded from 6.23 to 6.20 front-line. This is the second time since the renminbi's spot rate has dropped sharply since late 2. Analysts believe that in the current round of RMB against the US dollar over a cumulative decline of more than 3%, the power of short-term further devaluation has weakened. However, under the background of greater domestic economic downward pressure, the expected depreciation of the renminbi, and the rising strength of the US dollar in the peripheral market, the RMB will remain under pressure in the medium and short term, and the next stage will enter a weak shock period. < /p >
< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > intermediate price < /a > two rising continuously > /strong > /p >
< p > < strong > spot exchange rate decline is less than /strong > /p >
From the end of 2 to the end of the month, the RMB has fallen against the US dollar < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > /a > P. In the short span of more than 20 trading days, the maximum depreciation rate of the spot market transaction is close to 3%. During this period, the renminbi had a rapid rebound in early March, but after the central bank announced the 17 day expansion of the trading volume, the RMB devaluation expectation in the market suddenly increased, which triggered a new sharp drop in the spot exchange rate of the renminbi. This is a direct result of the rapid rise of the RMB exchange rate in the early March. In March 21st, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar reached a minimum of 6.2370, a record low of over a year. < /p >
< p > however, nearly two trading days < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > RMB > /a > trend repeated again, accompanied by a slight increase in the median price for two consecutive trading days, and spot exchange rate also rose to 6.20. < /p >
< p > according to the China foreign exchange trading center, the RMB exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market in March 25th was 6.1426, up 26 basis points from the previous trading day, and it went up slightly for the second consecutive trading day. < /p >
Driven by the increase in the central parity rate, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar between domestic banks rose to 362 basis points in the first 24 days, hitting a daily maximum appreciation rate of more than 29 months, closing at 6.1888 on the same day. On the 25 day, the spot exchange rate opened up 88 basis points under the guidance of the middle price. The early trading continued to be strong, and the afternoon shock dropped. Finally, the whole world fell 136 basis points and closed at 6.2024. Although the spot exchange rate has erased part of the increase in the previous day, it still rose more than 200 basis points on Friday's closing. < /p >
< p > market participants said that as of last Friday, the cumulative depreciation rate of the current round of RMB has reached nearly 3%, which has exceeded expectations to a certain extent. Therefore, the market view began to diverge. In the past two trading days, the central parity of RMB continued to rise, which further ignited the short-term sentiment. However, judging by the weakening of the exchange rate yesterday afternoon, the momentum of the continued rebound of the renminbi seems to be insufficient. < /p >
< p > < strong > there is support under pressure, < /strong > /p >
< p > < strong > recent or entering the lateral shock < /strong > < /p >.
The reasons why the market is short of the renminbi policy are: first, the current RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in the offshore market of Hongkong is still more than 200 basis points in the offshore market, showing that the arbitrage market is still profitable and two-way volatility is expected to consolidate. Secondly, the Fed's monetary policy has tightened steadily. The recent economic data also show that the fundamentals of the United States have further improved, and the US dollar's medium term strength has increased again. Thirdly, foreign investment bank reports show that about 30 billion U.S. dollars or so structured products of the arbitrage coin are stacked around 6.22-6.25. If the RMB depreciates to this position, there will be a large number of stop losses coming out, which will further push down the RMB exchange rate. < p > except < /p >
< p > but at the same time, the market is not optimistic about the short term downward trend of RMB. First, foreign trade is expected to resume favorable balance, which can support the RMB. Two, the sustained and significant depreciation of the RMB will bring a significant negative impact. The unilateral change of RMB appreciation from the unilateral appreciation will not accord with the intention of the authorities to enhance the two-way volatility elasticity of the exchange rate. < /p >
< p > market participants say that under pressure and support, it is expected that the next stage of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will enter a stage of weak shocks. Taking into account the policy effect and economic situation, we need a certain period of observation and data validation. This weak pattern will continue to the middle of the two quarter. < /p >