The Gem Will Adjust The Main Force And Fight Back.

< p > Shanghai a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > stock market < /a > showed a relatively dull performance last week. Shanghai Composite Index maintained a trend of lateral volatility, while Shenzhen Shenzhen index continued to rise under the leadership of the real estate sector.

In contrast, the performance index of gem is relatively weak. The index maintains a weak position at the top of 1300 points, and the strength of the rebound is very weak. The bull market shows signs of war and retreat, indicating that the short-term adjustment of the gem has not yet ended.

It is expected that short-term motherboard stocks will have strong driving force, but the rebound time of gem needs to be patient.

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< p > < strong > observation: the market near 2000 points < /strong > < /p >.

< p > observation: the gem is the main force in the long run and is concerned about the risk of increasing risks in the Growth Enterprise Market: Research on the market sentiment of increasing risks of the GEM market: the shift of the market focus to the performance of financial stocks: the shock of the growth enterprise market and the observation of the real estate sector: repeated entanglement and recommendation around the 2000 points of the market: the IPO channel can only enter the queuing enterprises, on the one hand, the performance of the economic data is not good enough, and the steady growth measures are not expected, and the pessimism of investors is difficult to resolve.

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< p > with the release of macro data in March, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > market < /a > for the first quarter, the forecast of GDP growth is becoming clearer, and the consensus is 7.2-7.3%, which is lower than the growth target of 7.5% in the whole year. Therefore, investors generally expect steady growth measures to come out.

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Last Wednesday, the Executive Council of the State Council decided to issue special housing finance bonds, focusing on supporting shed reform and urban infrastructure construction, Establishing Railway Development Fund, building railways, especially the central and Western railways, and reducing the income tax of small and micro enterprises by half, raising the policy ceiling and extending the deadline to the end of 2016.

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< p > the above measures for steady growth are in line with market expectations, but they are not similar to those of 2009.

The most concerned and effective monetary policy is the adjustment of monetary policy and real estate policy.

Early market rumors that the central bank [micro-blog] may reduce the deposit reserve ratio, but from the first quarter meeting of the central bank monetary policy committee, the statement on monetary policy has not changed. This shows that monetary policy has not changed the tone of stability. When the market liquidity is appropriate, the central bank will still take the open market operation to maintain a reasonable liquidity. At present, it is not necessary to reduce the deposit reserve ratio.

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< p > from the perspective of real estate policy, after the refinancing of real estate was released, investors were most concerned about the restriction on loan restriction and loan deregulation has not been fulfilled. The real estate control policy has not been fully liberalized, and the real estate market is still cold. This has aggravated the pessimistic expectations of investors, which has led to a rise in market risk aversion, and some blue chips have strengthened, and most growth stocks have fallen sharply.

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< p >, on the other hand, the gem is the main force, and the main board blue chip has become a safe haven temporarily. The market is in a period of adjustment.

During the intensive announcement period of the annual report, some stocks continued to grow at a high level, but for most stocks, the performance growth obviously lagged far behind the sharp rise in stock prices. The annual report played a role in puncturing bubbles and proving authenticity.

For example, light media (40.700,0.00, 0%) last year's earnings per share was 0.65 yuan, but as many as 20 organizations gave the average forecast value of 0.72 yuan, and other palm Technology (32.280, -0.52, -1.59%), LETV (37.560, -0.66, -1.73%), Shanghai Steel Union (50.130, -0.90, -1.76%) and other big bull stocks also failed to achieve the expected results.

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< p > from the motherboard, bank, real estate and other performance growth is still the main force.

The performance of blue chips, such as China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Vanke and Pauli, has increased over the previous year, reflecting the style of blue chip stocks and the concern of some hedge funds.

However, it is difficult for the market to achieve a complete 28 style conversion with annual reports.

At present, blue chips only exist valuation repair, but there is no room for growth.

Under the background of greater risk of economic downlink, interest rate liberalization and tighter monetary policy, the outlook for banking and real estate industry is worrying. The static undervaluation is still not attractive to medium and long term investors, and the timing of market expectations for blue chips is yet to come.

Even after the introduction of preferred stock, T+0 and other measures, it still can not enhance the investment value of real estate and banks.

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< p > according to the above analysis, the Shanghai Composite Index will rise slightly in the future based on the 2000 point integer pass, but it is difficult to surpass the resistance of the previous 2177 points. The gem index will still have 1300 points after finishing the platform.

Next week, there will be important data such as CPI and PPI in March. The market expects some data to rebound and help the main board rebound.

In addition, the IPO restart and preferred stock policy will also have a partial impact on the stock market.

The hot spot of the market can be summarized as the opportunity of valuation and repair of blue chips, and the growth stock bubble has not yet been squeezed.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > investment < /a > opportunities. The undervalued sector is still concentrated in industries such as real estate, banking, automobile, household appliances, commercial retail and so on. The best choice is the traditional + pformation, the performance provides defense, and the pformation can enhance the evaluation value. With the help of regional revitalization, Internet finance, new energy vehicles, smart home, and so on, we choose stock from the dual dimensions of performance and theme.

For cyclical industries, participation still needs to be cautious. Although the share prices of steel, nonferrous metals, coal, cement and building materials are decreasing greatly, the participation value is not great, and it is still appropriate to wait and see.

In terms of theme investment, the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is the focus of investment in recent years. After a surge in the previous period, the related stocks have increased, but with reference to the Shanghai free trade area, there will still be much room for growth in the future.

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