09 Years, The Import And Export Of Leather Industry Will Enter A Difficult Period.

From the analysis of various economic indicators and research data, the leather industry is facing the most difficult period in the past thirty years, and the pressure brought by changes in the international and domestic economic environment has made China's leather industry enter a "difficult time".

Under such circumstances, the leather industry will inevitably face many unprecedented difficulties and challenges, and this kind of difficulty can not be spent in a short time.

In the first half of 2007 and the first half of 2008, China's leather, fur and products industry still stubbornly maintained the trend of "steady and slightly rising", producing relatively fast growth, improving profit level, decreasing the dependence on foreign trade, steady growth in imports and exports, and a decline in the proportion of trade surplus.

But specific to different industries, especially the export situation can be said to be unhappy.

Leather, leather, clothing, fur and other industries were greatly affected by the macroeconomic regulation and control policies of the country, and exports declined significantly. The export volume of leather shoes decreased for the first time in seven years.

The closure and relocation of some export enterprises are the result of the comprehensive effects of market survival, resource costs, taxation and industrial policy adjustment. The essence is the inevitable process of industrial gradient pfer.

Since last year, the leather industry has quietly accelerated the pace of pferring to the central and western regions and Southeast Asia.

It is understood that the south-east coastal provinces, especially in Guangdong Province, have a large number of enterprises, but such pfers are gradual and tentative rather than migratory.

The direction of pfer is preferred in the more remote areas of the province, followed by Southeast Asian and domestic neighboring provinces such as Jiangxi, Anhui, Hunan or some industrial base areas such as Sichuan and Chongqing.

These signs indicate that China's leather industry has entered the period of industrial pfer after nearly thirty years of rapid development.

This is undoubtedly the focus of the industry's common concern. It is very important to correctly understand the trend of industrial pfer and grasp the opportunities for development in the process of pfer.

History has proved that the pfer of leather industry is the necessity of market economy law, and also the positive expression of the industry itself in order to seek sustainable development, adjust its structure and explore new development mode. Through comprehensive analysis, it is estimated that China's total import and export volume will reach US $2 trillion and 600 billion in 2008, an increase of about 20% over the same period last year.

In 2009, uncertainties and unstable factors will continue to increase. Uncertainties in the international economic situation will increase, and the impact on China's import and export will be further deepened.

But opportunities are still greater than challenges.

Owing to the slowdown of the world economy, the worsening of the financial crisis in the United States, the slowdown in the domestic economy, the appreciation of the renminbi, the decline in the investment rate of major industries, and the unfavorable factors of international trade protectionism, the export growth rate of our country has dropped markedly since the beginning of this year.

In the past 10 months, China's import and export situation is generally good, but the global financial market turmoil is hard to recover in the short term, and the demand for the international market will continue to weaken.

Point of view: from the current economic situation, due to the constraints of multiple factors, China's economic development is facing a very grim international economic environment. The external demand that has played an important role in economic development has slowed down, weakened supporting forces and reduced the contribution rate.

The world economic growth rate is expected to be 2.7% and 2.5% in the next two years, especially the economic slowdown of the developed countries led by the United States, and the demand for China's commodities is restrained.

According to the relevant estimates, the US GDP growth rate dropped by 1 percentage points, the growth rate of China's exports will decline by 4.75 percentage points, the EU's economic growth rate dropped by 1 percentage points, the electronic products exported to the EU will drop by 15/1000, and the textile and garment industry will drop by 5/1000.

Viewpoint three: econometric analysis shows that in the long run, there is only a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between investment and exports and China's economic growth. Investment and exports have a positive effect on economic growth, export elasticity to China's economic growth is larger, exports increase by one percentage point, economic growth by 0.8150 percentage points, domestic investment increases by one percentage point, and economic growth by 0.4994 percentage points.

This fully shows that China's economic growth has obvious characteristics of "capital expansion" and "export oriented".

Viewpoint four: Recently, in order to prevent the domestic economic downturn, China has introduced many measures to stimulate exports and encourage imports.

For example, the export rebate rate was raised 3 times in August, early November and early December.

The export tariffs of some commodities will also be cut down in early December.

China's export enterprises, which are in financial "cold winter", are generally processing enterprises. How to survive the long and severe winter is a big challenge.

The enterprise itself should strengthen its own management, strengthen innovation, change product structure, practice hard work, and change the marketing strategy according to the changes in the international market, and change the marketing target.

According to customs statistics, foreign trade import and export volume increased by 24.4% over the same period in 1-10.

Exports increased by 21.9%, down 4.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and imports increased by 27.6%, 7.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

The export growth rate is lower than the import growth rate by 5.7 percentage points, the gap narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared with 1-9 months.

The trade surplus reached 216 billion US dollars in the 1-10 months, an increase of 1.3%.

1. Net export has a weak effect on the economy.

Exports are an important driving force for China's economic growth.

According to the accounting data of the National Bureau of statistics, exports accounted for 37% of GDP in 2007. The contribution rate of net exports of goods and services to GDP growth was 21.5%, and the growth of GDP was 2.6 percentage points.

In the first half of this year, the contribution rate of net exports of goods and services to economic growth was 4.9%, down 16.8 percentage points from the same period last year, pushing the growth of the economy by only 0.5 percentage points, 2 and exports still declining, and the export of primary products and some resource goods changed greatly.

Export trade continued to show a downward trend in October, compared with the same month last year, exports increased by 19.2%, down 3.1 percentage points.

The ratio fell by 2.3 percentage points, less than 3.4 percentage points of imports.

The biggest decline is still processing trade, which grew by 8.5% in the month and 12.7 percentage points down.

3, import trade has dropped, and some commodity imports have come down in volume and price.

In October, import trade increased by 15.6% over the same period last year, not only lower than the same month last year's growth rate of 9.9 percentage points, but also lower than the growth rate of 5.7 percentage points last month, the lowest growth rate this year.

Export growth rate is 3.6 percentage points higher than that of import, and the gap is 3.4 percentage points larger than that of last month.

In the same month, the foreign trade surplus reached US $35 billion 240 million, an increase of 29.8%.

In the import trade, the fastest fall was the processing trade, which grew by only 1.9% in the month, down 16.6 percentage points compared with the same month last year, and the general trade increased by 30.1%, down 7.1 percentage points.

4. The growth of imports and exports of traditional commodities slowed down.

First, exports of labour intensive products such as clothing, toys and plastic products have slowed down.

Judging from the situation of Canton Fair this fall, the third phase of textile and clothing products, which are mainly labor-intensive products, have been greatly reduced. Next year, the export situation is not optimistic.

Two, imports of textile products, such as textile raw materials, paper and paperboard, billets and rough forgings, continue to decrease.

Three, the growth of import and export of electromechanical products and high-tech products is stable.

5, the trade surplus has reached a record high in a single month, and the cumulative trade surplus has been decreasing.

Since July, the monthly trade surplus has increased continuously, increasing year by year.

In October, the trade surplus was US $35 billion 240 million, an increase of US $8 billion 100 million over the same period last year, a record high, an increase of 29.8% over the same period last year, which is 7.6 percentage points higher than that in September.

At the same time, the cumulative foreign trade surplus decreased year by year, and the cumulative surplus in October decreased.

In the 1-10 month, the surplus of foreign trade totaled US $215 billion 990 million, an increase of US $2 billion 740 million over the same period last year, an increase of 1.3%, compared with a decrease of 2.7% in 1-9 months.

6. Bilateral trade with emerging market countries has increased rapidly.

In bilateral trade with my major trading partners, bilateral trade growth has slowed down, and bilateral trade with India has grown rapidly.

Bilateral trade between China and emerging market countries is growing rapidly.

The bilateral trade between India and Brazil, Argentina and other emerging market countries has increased rapidly, partly filling the space left by the slowing demand of the developed economies.

In particular, bilateral trade with India has grown rapidly.

New opportunities for development have created a new phase of the development.

Industrial pfer can achieve a win-win situation. We can learn from the experience of European leather industry pfer, and also experience and experience of rapid development in the southeast coastal area of China.

We can predict that, for quite a long time, the southeastern coast of China is still the center of trade, scientific research, information, design, R & D and brand manufacturing and output of the leather industry in China, while the labor-intensive processing industry is pferred, leaving the highest value-added part of the leather industry.

At present, although the industry is facing many difficulties, we should see that China has abundant raw material resources, perfect industrial chain, huge processing capacity, good processing technology and product quality, and a large market with great potential of 1 billion 300 million people. These advantages are unmatched by other parts of the world. Besides, our government has recently introduced a favorable policy to increase the export tax rebates for leather products such as leather garments and fur garments. Our country will still have a solid foundation in the next 20-30 years to strive to become a strong country in leather production in the world.

Yang Jing: editor in charge