Lang Xianping Says It'S Just Autumn And Winter Is Yet To Come.

Hangzhou scholars believe that there is no need to be overly pessimistic. "Just now, a reporter asked me how long it would take for the severe winter, and even asked when spring would come.

I said, winter hasn't come yet.

Although you may have felt sad, but I tell you, it's only autumn now.

Yesterday afternoon, Lang Xianping, a well-known economist, said at a forum held in Hangzhou.

Since the end of last year, the global financial turmoil triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis has become the focus of attention all over the world.

Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, judged that the crisis could be "one hundred years in a year" and had a great impact on the global trend.

At the same time, the global economy is becoming more and more closely related, and the mainland economy is also affected to some extent.

Since the end of the year, A shares have continued to decline, and many mainland residents' assets have continued to shrink.

Therefore, the global financial crisis and its possible impact on China have also been a topic of public concern.

For Lang Xianping's "autumn theory" of domestic economy, he did not elaborate on his logic yesterday, as well as the arrival and possible duration of "winter".

However, in the interview, some academics in Hangzhou said that China's economy will face some pressure in the next one or two years, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic.

In the near future, the world financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis has intensified. This financial crisis has severely damaged the confidence of investors and consumers in various countries, and the world economic growth has slowed down significantly.

Not long ago, the monitoring issued by the National Bureau of statistics showed that China's macroeconomic climate index continued to fall from June this year.

As for the impact of the global financial tsunami on China, Lang Xianping believes that the proportion of the mainland's exports to GDP is 35%. Under the current background, the consumption of the United States is declining. This situation will directly affect the export of the mainland, thus producing the Domino domino effect and affecting the real economy in the mainland.

In the interview, many scholars in Hangzhou city also expressed similar views to reporters.

"Unlike other countries, the pmission process of the financial crisis in the mainland should be bypassed the financial sector, starting with foreign oriented export oriented enterprises, then traditional industries, and then affecting the consumption of the employees of related enterprises."

Director of Economics Department of Zhejiang University of economics, Professor of navigation, ye hang, said.

Lang Xianping's "autumn theory" sounds worrying.

Similar to Lang Xianping, ye hang also believes that the crisis began in the United States and its impact on China should be at the beginning stage.

At the same time, ye Hang's view is more clear, saying that the time may last for two or three years, and the impact on some industries will be relatively large.

However, ye hang believes that there is no need to be overly pessimistic.

In 2007, our country's economic growth rate was 11.9%. Based on China's huge domestic demand market and other factors, it is estimated that the target of this adjustment is about 7% to 8% of the economic growth rate.

"Not long ago, the government moved very fast and launched a huge amount of money to stimulate the economy.

The direct use of financial investment to stimulate the economy is more obvious than the direct rescue of financial institutions in the United States.

In fact, this is also an important part of Roosevelt's new deal in 1929, and it also achieved good results.

This investment is directly credited to GDP, which can slow down the economic downturn. "

"Because of the large population, China has a huge domestic demand market, which is a very important growth point for the Chinese economy.

Therefore, due to huge domestic demand and other factors, China's rapid economic growth can continue for ten or twenty years.

Like Ye hang, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics's associate professor and master's tutor Tang Yao family also said that after this adjustment, the mainland economy will continue to improve.

The cyclical nature of economic operation is a kind of economic law, and it is also a normal economic phenomenon.

As for "autumn" or "winter", it is hard to judge.

However, from the fear level of the mainland people, I think winter has arrived.

At the same time, we should pay attention to the positive measures that have been put forward by the government in recent years.

Last night, a scholar in Hangzhou told reporters in an interview that people's confidence is very important in the current context.

Reporter noted that shortly after the State Council launched a huge amount of money to stimulate the economic plan, various provinces and municipalities also launched corresponding measures.

At the end of last month, the central bank lowered its interest rate again and lowered the benchmark interest rate of RMB institutions for one-year RMB deposits and loans by 1.08 percentage points.

The central bank also lowered the reserve ratio of commercial banks.

A few days ago, the central economic work conference was held in Beijing.

The meeting decided to "strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy" as one of the key tasks of next year's economic work.

At the same time, CPI was announced in November.

According to the information released by the National Bureau of statistics, consumer prices rose 2.4% in November, a 22 month low.

Among them, food prices rose by 5.9%, non food prices rose by 0.6%, consumer goods prices rose by 3.1%, and service items rose by 0.3%.

In November, the ex factory prices of industrial products rose 2%, or nearly 31 month low.

"At present, the domestic economic situation is rather delicate. The government should absorb the lessons of" excessive "regulation in the first half of the year. In the process of launching effective measures, it is also necessary to change the economic situation and avoid overheating.

The above scholars pointed out.

Yang Jing: editor in charge