The Internationalization Of RMB Must Be Carried Out By Hot Money To Attack Capital Markets.

On the afternoon of April 29th, the 2014 financial support for China (Shanghai) free trade experimentation area construction seminar, sponsored by Shanghai International Financial Center Research Institute and China (Shanghai) free trade experimentation area Collaborative Innovation Center, three, the media interaction of "financial openness and financial security" will be held at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.

At the meeting, the Shanghai International Financial Center Research Institute released the WED full market RMB exchange rate index. The keynote speech was made by the experts attending the meeting. Zhang Huiping, the Shanghai International Financial Center Research Institute, made a keynote speech on the impact of RMB internationalization on capital market risks.

As for why we want to achieve RMB internationalization, Zhang Huiping said that this is inseparable from the current economic development. In the past ten years, China's economic development has been very rapid. In 2013, GDP reached more than 9 billion US dollars. In 2012, China's exports accounted for the first place, and imports ranked second after the United States. With the rapid development of the economy, there is an urgent need for money to develop correspondingly. Historically, Mark and yen have become the mainstream currencies when Germany and Japan have reached a certain scale of economy, but the RMB is not particularly popular at present. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the internationalization of RMB.

Zhang Huiping believes that first of all, to establish a relatively large bond market, one of the ultimate goals of RMB internationalization has become the world's reserve currency. In today's financial system, the most basic form of reserve currency is the sovereign bonds of the reserve currency issuing countries, while the balance of our bonds in 2011 is US $3 trillion and 300 billion, and the 50% is government bonds. In the same period, the scale of US bonds is US $25 trillion, Japan is US $14 trillion, and the gap is relatively large. Therefore, the first step should be to build a mature and huge bond market, especially to promote the development of sovereign bonds and treasury bonds.

The second is the development of offshore RMB market. dollar There is a huge offshore market support. Worldwide, international bonds accounted for the whole 4 years from 2009 to 2012. bond market More than 95% of the Renminbi denominated bonds account for only 0.0% of the total, and the internationalization of RMB should be tried offshore except China.

Moreover, there is an impossible triangle, that is, a fixed exchange rate, an independent monetary policy and currency convertibility. These three can not exist equally. If the exchange rate is marketization, the government must adopt an independent monetary policy, and the RMB must be convertible freely. However, today, seven categories of IMF, only five RMB can be freely convertible, and the rest have certain restrictions. Therefore, to promote RMB internationalization, it is necessary to increase a free convertibility in these projects.

　　 Zhang Hui Ping At the same time, to encourage the RMB to invest abroad, the RMB will become an international currency through two ways. The first is to realize the export of RMB through the deficit of current account and capital account, which is contradictory to the policy of our two accounts. To change this situation, we must encourage RMB to invest abroad.

As for the impact of RMB internationalization, Zhang Huiping said that foreign funds, especially the hot money, will definitely come in. The fast moving capital and fast forward are very speculative. This will cause a very big impact on China's financial market. If we want to control the risk of capital market brought by RMB internationalization, we should first strengthen the identification and control of foreign capital. The second is to make full use of the advanced management experience of international institutional investors and standardize the A share market.

How to improve the supervision of overseas capital? Zhang Huiping said, the first is to strengthen the identification of it. It can see some investors' trading strategies before. If he often trades in a short term, he will quickly enter and exit quickly. These are some speculative capitals. If we can effectively identify them, we will do better in controlling risks. Another step is to strengthen the regulation and regulation of short selling. Foreign funds should be sold to domestic stock markets in general, and restrictions on the number and share of short selling can be reduced, so that these speculative capital shocks can be reduced.