The Renminbi Will Not Be That Expensive. Maybe Gold Is Really The End.

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< p > many people are expecting gold prices to crash again in the near future. But what we have seen is that the international a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > gold price < /a > is now moving in the direction opposite to the vast majority of people's expectations, and its upward potential energy can not be ignored.

Goldman Sachs and other investment bankers predict that the price of gold will fall by 20% in the near future, which is being abandoned by the market. This once again proves the truth: when the media is full of pessimism every day, the market opportunity may have arrived.

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It is not surprising that the negative correlation between price and gold suddenly disappeared. < p > < a > href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp > dollar > /a > this is not surprising because in the near future the potential risks of driving the market are the main driving force for Ukraine's situation and the financial market's risk aversion.

Such financial risks include not only the risk of the burst of US stock bubbles, but also the precarious property market in China, the risk of trust payments concentrated at maturity, and the risk of fragmentation of trade financing capital chain.

When these crises arrive at the same time, there are only two choices that people can hold, either holding cash or buying gold.

This is the reason for the negative correlation between us dollar and gold.

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"P" once, China is the most expensive country in the world, and it is also the most expensive country.

But this is obviously changing.

Although the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises is still difficult, the money on the market is quietly becoming cheaper. Many people do not pay attention to this point and have no time to interpret more economic significance. However, the change in interest rate market is extremely important and will have a profound impact on the financial market.

Since the first quarter, the annual yield of the balance treasure [micro-blog] has dropped to below 5%, while the interbank interest rate in Shanghai has also been in a downward path.

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P, China's money has become cheaper than before, which will become a long-term trend.

The most important reason is that the investment return rate of the real economy has been unable to pay such a high cost of capital. In the past few years, the high return in the real estate sector is the main factor supporting the high interest rate of funds, and the entire speculative market besides the stock market has also found a way out for these expensive money.

However, the real estate market is already on the eve of the crash. In the three or four tier cities, it is already a fait accompli. Small and medium-sized real estate enterprises have long been squeezed out of the credit market.

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< p > the government has also tried to rescue the real estate enterprises in the three or four tier cities. It is obvious that the deposit reserve ratio of the agricultural banks alone is released, but this may not help.

The most important problem in the real estate industry is that the relationship between supply and demand has changed.

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< p > if the housing market in the first tier cities is in urgent need, or if there are bad signs in big housing enterprises, the central bank will have to reduce the deposit reserve ratio as a whole so as to avoid a cliff like fall in the property market.

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< p > and this will not be the end of policy.

In the second half of this year, up to 400 billion dollars of trust funds are about to expire. As many investment projects fail to meet the expected rate of return of investors, trust companies may not be able to repay their capital and interest at any time. The fixed assets investment projects of the local government financing platform during the four trillion investment period are difficult to generate return on investment corresponding to the interest rate level. Because of the freezing of the land market in the three or four line cities, these local governments have been unable to pay the huge interest brought by the high debt.

The central government recently introduced micro stimulus measures such as increasing railway investment, but this is far from enough. If things go on, the central bank will have to make interest reduction decisions within the year to ease local government's repayment pressure.

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From the point of view of this point, the RMB will face a very low interest rate era in the future. In order to alleviate the repayment pressure of the long-term credit of the banking system, China's economic prospects have been seriously overdrawn by four trillion, and now we should fully realize this point. P

The low interest rate will devalue the US dollar, because in the next few years, because of the improvement of the US economy, the US dollar is facing great pressure to raise interest rates. The reverse fluctuation of interest rates between China and the US will further cause the depreciation of the RMB, and it will also lead to the relative depreciation of the assets of the people's currency.

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< p > if the difference between the two countries' a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > interest rate < /a > has greatly narrowed, the impact of trade financing will vanish in an instant, because the most extensive way of financing in recent years will become unprofitable. At that time, from iron ore, non-ferrous metals to natural rubber, those high inventory in the bonded area will have a huge impact on the domestic trade market, and will eventually impact the banking system.

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In the first quarter of the year P, China still achieved 7.4% economic growth. In the current environment, this should be a pretty good data, but in fact, people's sense of economic reality is far from good.

Before and after May 1, when I was doing field research in Hangzhou, Shanghai and other places, I was very worried about the economic growth in the next few quarters. China's HSBC PMI index has been under the ups and downs for 6 months in a row.

As long as you have a look at an enterprise, you can feel the survival predicament of the enterprise.

Of course, the new government is no longer a strong stimulus of the outdated route, of course it is very correct, because the reality of the plight is caused by excessive stimulation in the past, no one does not understand this point.

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< p > but even so, the central bank has been able to cut rates in the near future and cut interest rates in the year.

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