US Dollar Downward And Euro High Volatility Interlace

This week, the US dollar index of the foreign exchange market continued to maintain a downward trend. The trend was stable at 79 points, the lowest point was 79.10 points, the highest point was 79.49 points, and the US index itself changed little, but the other currencies were subject to a greater impact on P.

The US dollar to the euro exchange rate is a key point. The exchange rate ranges between us $1.38-1.39 and the euro appreciation is striking. The highest exchange rate has reached US $1.3992 in November 2011.

The exchange rate of the US dollar against the pound also declined, and the pound continued to expand. The price range was between us $1.68-1.69.

The US dollar hovered against the Australian dollar in the US $0.92-0.93 range, and the Australian dollar rose beyond expectations.

The US dollar further fell to $0.8737 against the New Zealand dollar, and the New Zealand dollar continued to record.

The US dollar also has a downward trend in the exchange rate for the Swiss franc and Canadian dollar, but the basic stability is very prominent. The exchange rate interval is quite stable in terms of 0.87 Swiss francs and 1.08 Canadian dollars.

The US dollar maintained a 101-102 yen level against the yen.

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< p > 1, the unusually common trend of the US dollar and the US economy.

A week's US economic index is still mixed. The narrowing of the US trade deficit in March may be a variable in the future revision of US economic data.

It reminiscent of the first quarter of 2013, when the US economic initial value was -0.1%, and then revised to 0.4% positive numbers.

This year's approach is the same as last year. The US economic indicators will still be raised, and the basic stability of the US economy remains clear.

On the one hand, there is a steady improvement in the unemployment state. The unemployment rate and the number of claims for unemployment pay reflect the obvious improvement of the US economy.

On the other hand, orders for durable goods and growth of factory orders are clear, including productivity growth.

Therefore, the latest market survey shows that the US GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to reach 3.3%, higher than the 3% expected in April, and some even predict that the second quarter's economic growth will reach 5.5%. Most economists believe that the second quarter economic growth is likely to exceed the pre maturity.

However, as a mature body, the US economy has the leading edge of technology research and development, and has the talent to control initiative and optimize.

The US economic evaluation is based on the policy needs and strategic pursuit of the United States.

The pessimism of the US economy is to set the road and conditions for the depreciation of the US dollar, and the depreciation of the US dollar is more conducive to the US economic returns, especially for the US dollar competition.

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< p > 2, the euro's departure from reality is out of hand with the euro zone economy.

At present, the euro price seems far away from the euro area economic situation, far away from the euro area value.

On the one hand, the euro zone economy is not as good as the United States, and the difference between data and actual state is very obvious. Especially, industrial renewal and innovation are difficult to relate to the euro area. It is estimated that the US economy will be 2.8% this year, and the euro area economy will be only 1.2%. On the other hand, the monetary policy in the euro area is in a very difficult period, with the pressure and challenges of the Federal Reserve on the periphery, and the confusion in the high unemployment rate and the low inflation in the periphery will not take the current situation.

In particular, the serious situation of uke's recent orchid situation has further affected the stability and cooperation of the European market, and the risks and worries behind the appreciation of the euro have gradually increased.

The strength of the euro and the low inflation in the euro area become a sharp contrast, making the European Central Bank helpless.

In the face of a strong euro, the ECB can only maintain its low interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, but the ECB president continues to warn that the ECB Executive Committee has agreed to support unconventional policy tools to cope with the risks of prolonged low inflation.

If necessary, the ECB is willing to take action in June.

The euro area's latest inflation index is 0.7%, still lower than the European Central Bank's 2% inflation target, but global risk appetite boosts, leading to continuous influx of funds into the euro area; and the Federal Reserve is gradually withdrawing from quantitative easing plan, the euro continues to rise, approaching two and a half years high.

Therefore, the ECB president thinks that the trend of exchange rate will be closely monitored and will consider all feasible tools. The ECB Executive Committee has discussed the possibility of taking action next month. < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Euro < /a > overestimation risk is aggravating.

Then the euro plunged rapidly against the dollar and fell below 1.3890 in one fell swoop.

This week the European Central Bank has hinted that if the euro continues to strengthen, it may be suppressed by buying assets.

But even if the European Central Bank adopts Japanese quantitative easing measures, it will not fundamentally shake the strength of the euro because the euro exchange rate initiative is not the ECB, but the Federal Reserve.

Morgan Stanley said the ECB needs to take a 1 trillion and 500 billion to 2 trillion Euro quantitative easing action to make the euro decline.

Goldman Sachs said that unless the euro area's economic outlook deteriorated further and faced a more severe risk of deflation, the ECB's chances of launching the European version of quantitative easing were very small.

The euro continues to face the dilemma of dilemma.

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The choice and expectation of < p > 3, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > monetary policy < /a > is the main reason for restraining and stimulating prices.

The purpose of the Fed policy is clear and uncertain.

Including the Fed chairman Yellen's speech this week, it is still difficult to identify the future.

The US dollar trend is constrained by the Fed's policy guidance, coexisting with the Fed's policy needs.

On the one hand, the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > the Federal Reserve < /a > has not determined the time of raising interest rates, and the timing is gradually pushed back. Then the depreciation of the US dollar meets the expectation of the interest rate prospect. On the other hand, the structural adjustment of the US Federal Reserve continues to be implemented, and the decrease in the US dollar's actual liquidity should be the depreciation of the US dollar, which seems reasonable.

Therefore, the complexity of the US dollar trend is beyond the norm and leading the normal way.

Looking back at the strong dollar that the market has been looking forward to is not the real dollar policy and strategy. Instead, it is a technology and strategy to mobilize emotions and guide prices.

Today's financial market is in a new stage of the new cycle. Unlike the past, there are no rules or empirical guidance. Learning to discover is our greatest difficulty as well as the homework we must do.

The problem lies in the fact that we use old ways to study and demonstrate, and we are constantly being manipulated and manipulated. Dollars and gold are a distinct example.

The performance of the Fed's low interest rate is only a strategy. What do we need to do in the long term? What is the long-term goal of the Fed? This is the height and vision of the US dollar strategy, not the change of any Federal Reserve chairman.

The vision of US dollar strategy is what we need to be concerned about and vigilant.

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< p > US dollar volatility is expected to increase. The adjustment of the US dollar index is imminent. Other currencies will be adjusted immediately. The exchange rate variables will increase the market instability. Otherwise, we will further stimulate the risk and pressure of exchange rate fluctuations.

It is estimated that the US dollar index is at a hovering node of 79-80 points, the euro is rising or continuing, and there is a breakthrough of US $1.40.

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