Depth: The Choice Under China's Foreign Trade Examination

　　 Objective view China Import and export data downwards

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, the total value of China's imports and exports was 5 trillion and 900 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2014, down 3.7% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 3 trillion yuan, down 6.1% compared to the same period last year; imports were 2 trillion and 900 billion yuan, down 1.2% compared with the same period last year; the trade surplus was 102 billion 830 million yuan, narrowing 60.9%. Total import and export volume, Exit The decline of imports is the result of many factors. In the same period last year, Guangdong was the biggest drag on Hongkong's high base factor caused by arbitrage trade. In addition, the external demand is not strong, the RMB exchange rate fluctuates, and the processing trade industry is shifting outwards, which has also led to the sluggish import and export data.

Just from the data, China foreign trade We are still not out of the doldrums, but objectively speaking, China has become the world's largest trading country. It is obviously not realistic to achieve higher growth on a large volume base. In fact, from the structural analysis of China's import and export trade, the current growth rate is mainly benefited from the pull of general trade, and its trade creation effect is even higher than the growth rate of processing trade by about 10%. Behind the slow growth of China's foreign trade is the gradual adjustment of the transformation and the gradual emergence of quality and efficiency growth, and the new growth momentum of China's foreign trade is being quietly nurtured.

There are four characteristics of "optimization", one is the optimization of commodity structure, the other is the optimization of commodity structure, and the two is the optimization of market structure, the reduction of the market structure, the expansion of trade dependence on the traditional market and the expansion of trade with the emerging market. The three is the optimization of trade mode, the increase in the proportion of general trade, the decline in the share of processing trade, the general trade account for 52.8% of the total value of China's imports and exports, and the proportion of import and export trade in China's total foreign trade has dropped to 32.6%. The changes in general trade and processing trade show that the quality and efficiency of China's foreign trade have been improved, and the competitiveness of trade is being transformed from a comparative advantage to a new competitive advantage. Four is the optimization of trade entities and the dependence on foreign-funded enterprises, while private enterprises account for the improvement of China's total foreign trade. Continued performance of China's foreign trade in 2013

The above four "optimization" is not only the embodiment of market drive, but also the result of China's active promotion of the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade. In particular, the state has promulgated a series of policies and measures to support trade facilitation, such as "six countries" and so on. The effects of these measures have been clearly reflected in the development of foreign trade in 2013 and 2014, thus realizing the optimized development of foreign trade.

　　 China's foreign trade opportunities and challenges coexist

In 2013, China's foreign trade has gone through two milestones: first, the total value of imports and exports of goods trade has reached a new level of US $4 trillion, reaching US $4 trillion and 160 billion, and two is the total value of China's goods trade surpassing that of the United States and becoming the world's largest commodity trading nation. In the future, on the basis of summarizing the existing experience and consolidating the existing results, China will comprehensively promote the development strategy of China's foreign trade under the new situation, so that China's foreign trade will be transformed from traditional comparative advantage to new competitive advantage and driven by exogenous drive to endogenous drive. This will also be a great opportunity for China's foreign trade development.

Meanwhile, the world economy will recover moderately in 2014, and at least there will be no significant downward trend. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates, the world economy will grow by 3.6% in 2014, better than in 2013, and the growth of emerging markets and developing countries and developed countries will increase by 5.1% and 2% respectively, up from 4.5% and 1.2% in 2013, respectively. The recovery of world economy will lead to the simultaneous growth of international trade. It is estimated that the growth rate of international trade will reach 4% in 2014. The warming of external markets will also boost external demand to a certain extent.

However, due to the fact that the economic structural adjustment of countries such as Europe, America and Japan has not yet been completed, the world financial system has not yet formed a stable regulatory mechanism. Developing countries need to accelerate economic restructuring and structural transformation. Some hidden dangers that restrict economic recovery have not been ruled out. The external environmental pressure facing China's foreign trade is still relatively large, and external demand is expected to not increase significantly in 2014. At the same time, China's foreign trade development still faces two major constraints:

First, the intensification of international competition has led to an increase in trade frictions. As the leading market of emerging markets, China, as the world's largest trading nation, faces competition from developed countries and faces competition from developing countries. The former shows that the developed countries, by promoting the reshaping of international trade rules such as TPP and TTIP, and excluding China, are intended to deprive China of the right to speak for the new international trade rules. The latter shows that the competition between China and developing countries in competing for international market share in labor-intensive products is increasingly obvious. The result of competition is the increase in trade frictions faced by China. In 2013, China suffered 92 trade frictions, and it is expected to exceed 100 in 2014. Trade friction has become one of the main risks of Chinese enterprises' exports.

Two, the rise of factor cost leads to the transfer of traditional industries. Labor costs in China are 3-5 times higher than those in Burma and Vietnam, and some labor-intensive industries have begun to transfer to Southeast Asian countries, especially in foreign-funded enterprises. Labor intensive industries account for about 70% of China's exports, and its exports are directly related to the growth level of China's foreign trade. Industrial transfer is expected to intensify in 2014, which will, to a certain extent, reduce the international market share of China's labor-intensive products and drag on import and export growth.