Zhang Wei: The United States Refers To The Strong Finishing Up, If Broken, Is A Big Probability.

< p > < strong > 1: fundamental analysis < /strong > < /p >

< p > yesterday (May 21st), the latest meeting minutes released by the Fed showed that the Federal Reserve would continue to reduce the stimulus plan, and the market expected the European Central Bank to further relax the monetary policy of the euro area, and the US dollar rose largely against the main currencies.

After the release of the minutes, the US dollar immediately dropped from the level of 101.47 yen, reaching a minimum of 101.36 yen.

The euro fell slightly from $1.3670 to a minimum of $1.3655.

On Wednesday, the US dollar fell against the pound, reflecting tighter policy thinking in the May Bank of England meeting, suggesting that the Bank of England raised interest rates earlier than expected.

Raising interest rates or boosting the pound.

The factors contributing to the rise in the pound also include the April retail sales figures far higher than expected.

On the stock market, most of the three major global stock indexes have risen.

The three major U.S. stock indexes rose across the board and Dow climbed nearly 1%, the biggest gain in 5 weeks.

Major European stock indexes generally rose, mainly due to the May euro zone consumer confidence index rising to its highest level in more than 6 years.

Major Asian Pacific stock indexes mostly fell, and rebounded after the afternoon session, narrowing.

When the Federal Reserve issued a stimulus, the price of gold fell sharply on Wednesday, and the lowest spot was near 1283. After that, some of the lost land was recovered, which was reported at 1291.90.

< /p >

< p > foreign exchange market, as of the end of the day, the exchange market ended at 1 euros to 1.3685 U.S. dollars, lower than the previous trading day of 1.3700 U.S. dollars; 1 pounds to 1.6896 U. S. dollars, higher than the previous trading day of 1.6835 U. S. dollars, 1 Australian dollars to 0.9243 yuan, lower than the previous day 0.9298 U. S. dollars, 1 U. S. dollars to 101.39 yen, higher than the previous day's yen.

At the 29-30 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on April, officials discussed how the Federal Reserve managed its $4 trillion and 300 billion securities assets and the $2 trillion and 600 billion banking system reserves, but failed to reach a final decision.

The Fed's discussion of the above issues and its modest optimism about the US economy can not persuade investors to form the anticipation that the Fed will raise interest rates ahead of schedule.

However, the discussion of how to exit the easing policy can not change the market expectations of the Fed, which can not be plated into the expectation that the US dollar will soon rise.

< /p >

(P) today, Thursday (May 22nd), after the Federal Reserve's announcement of major risk events in the conference, there was another wave of data in the market today.

Important economic data will be released in many countries including China, the euro zone, the UK, Canada and the United States.

In the Asian market, investors are concerned about the Japanese manufacturing industry PMI, Japan's good economic performance, let the BoJ loose plan postponed, the manufacturing data will also have a certain impact on the exchange rate.

In addition, investors should also pay attention to China's HSBC manufacturing PMI. China's economic data may be a new direction for the Australian dollar under the weakening trend of the Australian dollar.

In Europe, investors should pay attention to a series of PMI data released by the eurozone. Recently, the euro has been under pressure from the ECB's relaxed expectations. The economic data released during the day will also affect the euro's trend to a certain extent.

In May, composite PMI fell to 53.9 from a three year high of 54 in April.

Falling from the high point of many years is a normal phenomenon. A slight drop in this data may not destroy the overall positive trend of these survey data.

So for the euro, although the market is expected to be negative, unless the data decline sharply, the pressure on the euro may not be too obvious.

Apart from these heavy data, European parliamentary elections are clearly not allowed to be ignored by investors.

In May 22nd, the European Parliament began a general election.

A total of 28 EU Member States will vote from 22 to 25, and elect 751 members of the new European Parliament.

Secondly, investors focused on the first quarter GDP correction announced by the British side and the two data of the CBI industrial order difference. The UK's good a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > economic data < /a > and the expectation of the Bank of England tighten up the pound.

Two economic data within the day will again impact the pound's trend.

< /p >

In the period of < p > New York, we should pay attention to the data of the US and < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Canada < /a >.

The number of gold invited in the early days of the United States, the initial PMI value of manufacturing industry, leading indicators, and home sales may have a greater impact on the US dollar.

In the US Markit manufacturing PMI initial value in May, the market is expected to rise to 55.5.

However, compared with this data, the number of jobless claims released in the United States in early May 17th and the total number of sales in April will be even more critical.

Among them, the US property market data recently made many division members scratching their heads because they did not join the widespread recovery in other areas of the US economy.

This is especially true for home sales, which fell for the seven consecutive month after reaching its peak in September 2013.

And the retail sales data in Canada may also bring a dose of strong heart to the recent Canadian dollar.

For more technical analysis of foreign exchange gold, please pay attention to the Zhang Wei foreign exchange video solution on potatoes Youku. < /p >

< p > < strong > Two: technical analysis < /strong > < /p >

< p > < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > > Gold < /a > Strategy Analysis: < /p >

< p > gold fell off yesterday and fell to 1283 after receiving the announcement of the Federal Reserve announcement.

On the figure, the inside direction is still empty, the upper pressure is 1293, and the lower target is 1285 < /p >.

< p > main strategy: 1293 near short, target 1285, stop loss 1297 < /p >

Strategic analysis of < p > Euro: < /p >

< p > Europe and the United States finally broke through the trend of cross trend in the past few days after the announcement of the Fed's decision yesterday. It fell below the support near 1.3690, and the lowest bottom was near 1.3630, and then the city rebounded slightly, and now it was adjusted around 1.3670.

At present, the medium and long term bearish and intra day operations are recommended to be blocked on the 1.3690 front line, with a stop loss of 1.3720 < /p >.

< p > main strategy: 1.3690 near short, target 1.3630, stop loss 1.3720 < /p >

< p > pound strategy analysis: < /p >

< p > main strategy: 1.6860 near do more, target 1.6920, stop loss 1.6830 < /p >

< p > US Japan strategy analysis: < /p >

< p > main strategy: 101.30 near do more, target 101.70, stop loss 101.10 < /p >