Zhang Wei: This Week Is The Key Time Node. Many Currency Pairs Are Facing Breakthroughs.

　　 1: Fundamentals Analysis

Yesterday, May 19th, the US dollar varied against the main currencies. Market investors are concerned about the statements made by several Fed officials this week and the minutes of the last round of the decision meeting to be announced on Wednesday, hoping to get more hints from the Fed's policymakers about the pace of economic growth, the reduction plan for asset procurement projects and the timing of raising interest rates.

A number of Federal Reserve officials released the next step on 19 th. monetary policy Action speech. Fisher, a Fed official, at the meeting of President George's Center for monetary policy, said the Federal Reserve was taking measures to boost the economy while Congress was slowing the economy. He believes that the Fed's loose monetary policy is positive.

On Monday, spot gold prices rebounded around the same time, closing at an almost flat level. After the early fall of US stocks on Monday, gold touched $1305.30 an ounce, the highest price in four days. But later, the US shares rebounded, and gold prices rebounded most of the gains.

Foreign exchange market, up to that date Currencies At the end of the session, 1 euro was exchanged for 1.3708 US dollars, which was higher than that of the previous trading day of 1.3696 US dollars; the exchange rate of 1 pounds was 1.6810 US dollars, which was unchanged from the previous trading day; the 1 Australian dollar was 0.9322 yuan, lower than the previous day's 9356 dollars; 1 dollars was exchanged for 101.45 yen, which was lower than the previous day's 101.51 day.

The euro rose against the dollar yesterday, and the dollar continued to struggle because of the low yield of US Treasury bonds. Late Monday, Yves Mersch, member of the European Central Bank Council, reiterated that the bank intends to ease monetary policy next month to push the euro down briefly. The euro area inflation rate in April was 0.7%, still far below the ECB's 2% target. The bank is worried that the euro zone may be deflationary, and has already indicated that it will take steps such as lowering key interest rates to stop it. Investors had betting that the ECB would lower the deposit rate to below zero.

Negative deposit rates will penalize financial institutions that will put money in the European Central Bank, and in theory will also discourage investors from buying Euro valuation assets. Now it seems that the trend and rebound of the euro show that investors think that the European Central Bank will reduce the deposit interest rate to negative at the June meeting, and there is still room for discussion about how the negative deposit rate will impact the euro. Many investors also feel that the market has already digested this point.

Today, Tuesday (May 20th), after a dull Monday, the market began to enter this week's topic. First of all, the RBA will announce the minutes of the meeting in the morning. The RBA maintained its policy unchanged at the interest rate meeting earlier this month. In this summary, investors can find more clues to the future direction of the RBA in the last meeting. Investors are particularly concerned about the RBA's description of the exchange rate. In the euro area, investors can focus on Germany's PPI and Italy's industrial orders data. Recently, Germany's data performance is not as good as expected. The Bundesbank also supports the European Central Bank's expansion of loose scale at next month's meeting. Germany's economic data will test the German economy again. The most important thing today is the CPI annual rate and retail sales figures released by the UK. These two data will stimulate the market today. Although the Bank of England is cautious about raising interest rates, if the data is better, it will surely bring more pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. In the evening, Canada will also publish wholesale inventory data. Recently, the US dollar has shown a rather dull performance in the Canadian dollar. In a flat trend, a few data released by Canada will also exacerbate the short-term trend of the US dollar against Canadian dollar. For more technical analysis of foreign exchange gold, please pay attention to Zhang Wei foreign exchange video solution on potatoes Youku.

　　 Two: technical analysis

Golden strategy analysis:

Gold once touched a 1305 stop yesterday. The overall interpretation of gold is still in the horizontal section, but the trend needs to be further clarified, underneath support 1287. In the near future, we suggest a steady transaction and pay close attention to the location of trading in the vicinity of Q3.

Main strategy: 1300 near short, target 1287, stop loss 1306

Euro strategy analysis:

Europe and the United States continued to fluctuate from 1.3690 to 1.3740 yesterday. After yesterday's bottom up to 1.3700, it has steadily dropped to 1.3735. At present, Europe and the United States maintain a horizontal finishing trend, unable to effectively break the edge of the area. Intra day operation is still concerned about the trading situation in this area, the healthy people consider high throwing and low absorption, radical advocates continue to recommend high short.