The Supply Of Cotton Market Is Ample &Nbsp; The Downstream Purchasing Intention Is Not Strong.

Lower purchasing intention

Deteriorating world economy and

Correspondingly, the sale price of lint fell sharply. In November 8th, China's cotton price index (level 328) was 19279 yuan / ton, far lower than the national reserve purchase price of 19800 yuan / ton, also lower than the futures contract price 19460 yuan / ton in November.

Market pressure is relatively heavy as spot prices are much lower than futures cotton and State Reserve purchase prices.

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The massive circulation of new cotton and the increase in imports over the past two months have made the cotton market difficult to return.

After the new cotton listing in September this year, the main body of cotton purchase was actively bought and pressed into the market, and the supply of cotton was increased greatly. At the same time, the price of the scale rose, and the cost of the ginning enterprises was also rising.

However, since the end of 10, spot prices have dropped, and early acquisition of seed cotton has already seen losses.

Therefore, the late Kai Kai scale enterprises to take strict control of quality, quantity, price and other measures to purchase cautiously, some enterprises even stop waiting for wait and see.

However, the high price seed cotton has to be squeezed and sold to meet the increasing cost of capital, which undoubtedly aggravates the weakness of cotton in the later stage.

On the one hand, the domestic cotton production has increased greatly and the supply is relatively loose. On the other hand, the low price of imported cotton has come to Hong Kong and hit the domestic market.

According to the import and export data released by the Ministry of Commerce in September, the number of imported cotton in China has increased for third consecutive months, and the price drop has increased.

According to customs statistics, China imported 253 thousand tons of cotton in September 2011, an increase of 46 thousand tons compared with August, an increase of 22.1%, an increase of 25.9% over the same period last year, and an average import price of 2830 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 195 US dollars compared with August, or a decrease of 6.5%.

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Business links remain high

According to the statistics of 122 warehousing units of the cotton storage association of China Cotton Association, as of the end of September 2011, the total turnover of commodity cotton turnover was 269 thousand tons (177 thousand tons in the mainland and 92 thousand tons in Xinjiang), a decrease of 139 thousand tons in the chain, an increase of 180 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

Accordingly, the total turnover of cotton turnover in the whole country is about 318 thousand tons.

Excessive commercial inventories are not conducive to the rebound in cotton prices, but also exacerbate the wait-and-see sentiment of textile enterprises.

National Reserve purchase brings a glimmer of light to cotton market

Although cotton is facing many difficulties, the state, in order to protect the interests of cotton farmers, starts buying and storing the market, and opens up the purchase at the price of 19800 yuan / ton. On the one hand, it safeguards the fundamental interests of cotton farmers, reduces the impact of price fluctuations on cotton production, and on the other hand, reduces the inventory of commercial links, resulting in a reduction in the supply of the market, and a certain degree of support for the stable operation of cotton prices.

To sum up, we believe that as the debt crisis in Europe and the United States has subsided in a short time, the weaker dollar will drive the global commodity oscillation to rebound, and the international cotton technology will impact 115 areas. It is expected that Zheng cotton will maintain a 20000 to 21200 yuan / ton oscillation possibility before the Spring Festival. It is suggested that speculative funds should be bought in the vicinity of the cotton futures down to 20000 yuan / ton, and the hedging operators will consider rolling at 20800 yuan / ton.