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Analysis Of Global Cotton And Textile Market Situation

2014/5/23 10:43:00 62

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Global Cotton Textile Market Situation Analysis

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for introducing me very well. Thank you for inviting me to speak at the summit of China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > cotton < /a > P.

Dr. Jiang and I may be the only two participants who have participated in the China Cotton Association Summit Forum every time.

As we know, this summit forum is held every two years. We attend every summit.

Several guests met a few years ago, and I have been speaking at every summit.

I was asked not to talk about supply problems this time, but rather to talk more specifically about the impact of global cotton consumption < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > policy < /a >.

Not only is China concerned about cotton policy, but in fact, the cotton market in the world is very concerned about cotton policy. In my hands, cotton Outlook Weekly is released every week, and it will be released in English every Friday.

There is a commentary in the latest weekly magazine that assumes that the production and consumption of cotton in China can be said to a certain extent. From 2014 to 2015, another quarter of cotton reserves will increase. It seems that it is in the opposite direction in the long run. If so, I would like to analyze some dependent issues, that is, the dependence between the international cotton market and the Chinese market.

So I hope to discuss this with you.

to better illustrate this point, let us recall it.

Although China's cotton reserves have been increasing, the number of imported cotton in China is also increasing.

As you can see, 59% of US cotton exports are targeted at China.

However, this proportion dropped by 14% in 2013.

Let's take a look at Australian cotton exports to the Chinese market more than 70%.

I know that Australian cotton is very popular in the market, which explains why the dependence is so high.

let's take a look at the printed cotton data. In 2012, about 77% of cotton exports to China.

In 2013, the percentage dropped to 60%.

Let's take a look at the situation of Brazil's cotton exports to China. From 2012/13 and 2013/14, the fact is that this figure is slightly distorted, but at least explains such a trend.

let us take a look again. The situation in the African Franc area of China's "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "export > /a" may be the figure of time lag, but it can also explain the global cotton dependence on the Chinese market.

I want to make it clear that China has consumed a lot of cotton produced globally.

We see that 2013 is 53%, and the next year is 44%, so the proportion of 53% and 44% is lower than 30% before that.

What is the significance of it? That is, the Chinese government's policy on cotton has attracted the attention of industry analysts.

Like our cotton outlook, we are also looking at the current Chinese government's emphasis on the digestion of cotton reserves, which will have an impact on China's import of cotton.

let's take a look at the global situation of cotton exports to China in 2014/15.

I think the decision of the Chinese government to digest its own cotton reserves will not have a significant impact on the international cotton market in the short term.

Let's take a look at this p again. This PPT is the data of China's cotton yarn imports rising, green represents foreign made cotton yarn, and red represents imported cotton yarn made in China for re export trade, that is, cotton made in China has returned to China through re export trade.

Let's take a look at it. The number of 2012/13 is increasing year by year.

China's appetite for cotton imports, especially in Asia, has had a very good impact, and even affected the United States.

But let's take a look at the fact that the country before the ranking was India, which has doubled its growth in 2012/13.

We see that India has surpassed Pakistan and has become the main supplier of cotton yarn in China.

In the past, Pakistan ranked first.

we see that China's import of cotton yarn to Pakistan has dropped by 40%, which has had a huge impact on the cotton yarn industry in Pakistan, which makes India better able to replace Pakistan now.

India and Pakistan are very similar, that is, the lack of confidence among Chinese buyers has also affected manufacturers in India, and the price of India cotton yarn manufacturers has dropped slightly.

in the short term, Pakistan believes that the lack of competitiveness of China in the whole cotton a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile "/a" industry will bring about the rise of other cotton textile industries in other countries, which will make Pakistan's cotton spinning industry prosperous.

India has predicted that the demand for cotton yarn in China's policy will have a clear stimulus in the near future, so China's policy will not stimulate the Chinese cotton yarn industry in the short term.

let us take a look at the global interest in the competition of man-made fibres, especially man-made fibers in China.

We saw a decline in polyester prices in April of 2014, which is a decline in the ratio of cotton prices.

Let's take a look at the share of polyester fiber output, which has been growing steadily for three consecutive quarters.

We know that the supply of polyester fiber is too abundant now.

Let's look at the cotton reserve policy in addition to China, on the one hand, to promote China's cotton imports; on the other hand, it encourages China to make more use of some polyester and man-made fibers.

In the global context, although the long-term consumption is definitely increasing, the proportion of cotton is gradually decreasing compared with other man-made fibers.

For us, this aspect will definitely have an impact on China's cotton market.

let's take a look at the change of global cotton consumption.

We see that consumption in 2010/11 and 2011/12 has been declining due to the impact of the economic crisis.

However, there is bound to be a rebound in consumption since 2012.

But we see that such a positive fact is still unable to digest the large supply.

Let's take a look. In 2010/11, production is higher than consumption, and this is the watershed of this stage.

What is shown in this picture is the inventory of (PPT) 2014/15.

This figure is a few weeks ago.

I think the market is changing. The expectation of the past is that the adjustment of Chinese government policy will gradually consume domestic cotton reserves. But now it is very clear, this is only a short-term effect.

For example, this morning, the President talked about it, and Mr. Wang Zhengwei talked about it, and there will be such a way. The lady of the dialect also talks about the Chinese cotton policy is still exploring.

let's take a look at the prediction of cotton production in China in 2014/15.

Our latest estimate is that China's output is about 6 million 400 thousand tons in 2014/15.

In other words, this is more than some people expected.

Unless there is a policy, China's cotton reserves will remain on a larger scale.

How has the whole situation happened? I have not been able to make a clear explanation so far.

China's demand is declining, and some textile mills have been investing to expand production overseas.

I believe that it includes some production factors of raw coal, manpower and energy, and the increase of costs, coupled with policy factors.

We know that this will have a certain impact on the price of the market, of course, mainly affected by demand.

We see that policy control may be mentioned just as a few speakers have just said, in fact, it emphasizes that the market should adjust the price.

The market will be affected. If the policy adjustment has a good effect on the market, this good effect will turn into a positive factor for the cotton market.

my conclusion: the main challenge of China's cotton industry should be united. If we do not increase the consumption of cotton, we must maintain the current consumption level. We must never regress. This is our red line.

Thank you again!