Who Will Benefit From Bank Financing Products?

The bag is safe. Bank financing Products also focus on actual returns, but investors will still consider the expected yield as an important factor when purchasing financial products. Then, what are the factors affecting the expected return of financial products?

Risk-free interest rate: a fundamental decision on Yield

Hu Ligang, a securities analyst, points out that a risk-free interest rate is usually expressed in terms of one-year bank deposit rate or treasury bond yield, while the average yield of one year fixed income financial products is always higher than the fixed interest rate. Theoretically speaking, every interest rate increase of banks will drive the central curve of the yield curve of financial products to move upward.

From 2010 to the first half of 2013, bank fixed interest rates played a decisive role in the yield of bank financial products. From October 2010 to July 2011, the central bank increased interest rates 5 times in a row. The one-year fixed deposit rate rose from 2.25% to 3.50%. The average yield of one year banking products increased from 2.70% to 5.25%. From June 2012 to July, the central bank cut interest rates 2 times in a row, and the central bank's yield of financial products dropped from 5% to below 4%.

However, from June 2013 to September, the average yield of one-year banking products increased from 3.57% to 4.77%. From October 2013 to December, the average yield of one year banking products increased from 4.68% to 5.06%, while the one-year fixed interest rate remained unchanged at 3%.

In addition, in the period when financial products yield center relatively stable, for example, from October 2012 to March 2013, the average yield of financial products fluctuated within a certain range.

Hu Ligang pointed out that the basic interest rate represented by bank deposit interest rate has a fundamental impact on the yield of bank financial products, but there are other factors affecting the return of financial products.

　　 Maturity: there is a term premium for yield.

The term of financial products issued in 2013 is still concentrated in 35 days, 63 days, 90-91 days, 180-182 days and 365 days. When the issue period was extended from 35 days to 365 days, the average yield of financial products increased from 4.52% to 4.80%, showing an overall upward trend, but there was a relapse in the middle.

　　胡立剛表示，統(tǒng)計結(jié)果對“發(fā)行期限越長的理財產(chǎn)品獲得的預(yù)期收益率越高”這一直觀結(jié)論并沒有構(gòu)成強力的支持，原因可能是:同期限理財產(chǎn)品的大量發(fā)行導(dǎo)致市場供給大量增加，理財產(chǎn)品收益率受市場供求變動影響發(fā)生波動;銀行理財產(chǎn)品資金普遍采用“資金池”形式運作，存在典型的“借短投長”、“期限轉(zhuǎn)化”特點，弱化了理財產(chǎn)品本身的發(fā)行期限特點，一定程度上也弱化了發(fā)行期限對收益率的影響;此外，銀行理財產(chǎn)品在月末、季末往往成為銀行“沖存款”的有力工具，銀行常通過發(fā)行高收益的短期理財產(chǎn)品“變相攬儲”，這也會影響發(fā)行期限對收益率影響的結(jié)論;理財產(chǎn)品平均收益率跟理財產(chǎn)品的產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)有關(guān)，浮動收益和固定收益理財產(chǎn)品占比、基礎(chǔ)資產(chǎn)投向占比、幣種占比等均會影響理財產(chǎn)品收益率。

If the average yield of 63 days, 91 days, 182 days and 365 days is compared with the average yield of the 35 day period, the maturity premium will increase with the increase of the time limit, but there is a recurrence in the process. If the expected yield limit of financial products is the same as that of the interbank pledged repo rate researcher at the same date, Duan Chao said that considering the risk level, the expected return rate of Guaranteed Fixed products should be the lowest when the other product terms are the same. According to Warburg securities statistics, in 2013, the yield of floating income financial products was always higher than that of fixed income products in the RMB financial products with a term of 1-3 months. Hu Ligang believes that the reasons for this phenomenon may be: banks issuing fixed income products need to promise fixed income to investors, which is more prudent in the operation of funds, and the funds raised by issuing floating income products can be configured more flexibly, which will help to obtain higher expected returns. Banks issuing fixed income products should be included in the table according to the regulations, and the funds will be subject to more supervision, while the floating income products will be out of business and restricted.

Duan Chao pointed out that in the direction of investment direction of bank financial products, interest rate, bills, credit and bond assets are relatively low risk. The expected return rate of financial products that are mainly invested in these assets is generally set low, and the risk of exchange rate, commodity and stock assets is relatively high.

Hu Ligang pointed out that the return of basic assets to different bank financial products mainly depends on the performance of underlying assets. The yields of bonds, interest rates and bills are related to market liquidity.

The end of the month and the end of the season Bank Assessment

The end of the month and the end of the season are the time points for bank assessment. The monthly and quarterly third months are the peak period for the issuance of high yield financial products. According to the statistics of Warburg securities, the financial products issued in 2013 were ranked according to the actual rate of return announced. Of the top ten, seven were issued at the end of the month and the end of the quarter.

　 Product purchase amount

Duan Chao pointed out: "investors may find that the expected yield of financial products with larger purchase amount is often higher than that of the financial products with lower purchase amount, especially for the financial products that purchase more than 1 million yuan. These products are likely to be the financial products of the main trust assets, so the agreed purchase amount is higher and the yield is higher."

　 Market interest rate

Hu Ligang said that the market yield curve is determined by the capital demand side, including bank financing, together with the funding providers. Market interest rate is determined by the combination of bank financing and other financial instruments. In turn, it has an important impact on the yield of bank financial products.

"At present, the traditional bank deposits, public offering funds, insurance (Fang Xinbao), new bank financing, trust products, insurance claims plan, securities broker management plan, and fund competition between fund subsidiaries have entered the white hot stage. The richness of the supply side of financial products has increased the overall market returns. Due to competitive considerations, bank financial products need to attract funds with higher yields, and the yield of bank financial products will go up. Hu Ligang said, "when unexpected events hit market interest rates, banks Conduct financial transactions The product market will also be disturbed.