Downstream Rigid Demand Digestion PTA Inventory

< p > 2013, domestic a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > PX < /a > capacity growth rate reached 21%, and in 2014 there will be 7 million 900 thousand tons of new a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > device > /a > put into production, and the supply of PX will be changed from tight to substantial loose.

Although the PX factory has substantially reduced production since March, and the PTA repair device has been restarted in April, the situation of PX supply has not changed.

At the end of April, the PX inventory was 1 million 636 thousand tons, which was equivalent to the inventory level at the end of March.

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In addition, ACP negotiations broke down frequently. The price of CFR China PX dropped from 1245 US dollars / ton at the end of March to 1169 US dollars / ton in May 7th, or 6.1%, down from P.

In the wake of the Ukraine crisis, the price of naphtha followed the European and US oil prices continued to be strong, and the profits of PX factories were greatly reduced.

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< p > May, South Korea GS, Japan JX and Taiwan CPC and other PX factories shut down many sets, Indonesia TPPI, South Korea HC and Thailand ThaiOil plan to overhaul June, and South Korea SK, Singapore Jurong and India ONGC total of about 4000000 tons of new devices postponed production.

In the empty window period of PX's new production capacity, the PX plant has stepped up its production reduction efforts, and in the short term, it has strong support for the price of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > PTA < /a >.

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< p > the PTA device for pre maintenance was restarted in April, involving a total capacity of 10 million 400 thousand tons.

The concentrated release of capacity resulted in a PTA price drop much larger than PX, and the theoretical loss of PTA enterprise expanded from 286 yuan / ton at the end of March to 600 yuan / ton.

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< p > under this pressure, in the middle of 5 months, domestic PTA enterprises began a new round of parking overhaul, and again formed the situation of PX PTA link reducing production jointly.

At present, the PTA composite load in China has dropped to 65.3%.

Along with the decline of device load, PTA index increased its position to accelerate its rebound.

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< p > raw material price is weak, polyester factory cash flow improves, the polyester industry profits from the end of March profit and loss balance reached a peak of 450 - 600 yuan / ton, DTY cash flow even reached 900 yuan / ton, poor performance polyester staple fiber cash flow also reached 300 yuan / ton.

Considerable profits have stimulated the enthusiasm of the downstream factories, and the polyester load has been maintained at over 82% for a long time.

"Golden four silver" in the traditional peak season, polyester production and marketing is good, coupled with the inventory operation since mid March, the middle and lower reaches of the factory inventory dropped to a lower level.

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< p > at the end of April, domestic PTA inventory was 1 million 500 thousand tons, which was 430 thousand tons lower than that at the end of March.

Since mid May, the reduction of PX and PTA factories has led to a rebound in PTA prices. Under the influence of "buying up or not buying down", the downstream polyester plant is ushering in a new round of replenishment cycle.

PTA social inventory and polyester product inventory have been rapidly reduced after two weeks of short accumulation. Some factories even have a tight supply situation. A large number of warehouse receipts flow into the spot market to supplement supply.

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< p > later PX - PTA links will face the risk of new capacity release and device restart, and PTA prices will be under pressure in the medium and long term.

However, the current PX PTA link continues to reduce production and the inventory is relatively low. As long as the polyester plant still has profits, the demand for replenishment will exist, and the accumulation of PTA inventory will take time.

Therefore, in the absence of more bad stimulus, the PTA price will remain high in the short term and will not rule out the possibility of further exploration.

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