Directional Reduction Of Quasi Steady Expansion Of Prudent Currency Unchanged Experts Predict Release Of Funds 300 Billion

Li Keqiang, premier of the State Council, chaired the executive meeting of the State Council, deploying and strengthening financial support for the real economy. P

The meeting made it clear that we should increase the intensity of "targeted reduction" measures, and appropriately reduce the < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/ news/index_c.asp" reserve ratio < /a > for issuing "three rural" and small and micro enterprises which meet the needs of structural adjustment and meet the market demand for a certain proportion of real economic loans.

< /p >

< p > Zong Liang, deputy director of the International Finance Research Institute of the Bank of China, told the first financial daily that the scope of the "quasi directional reduction" has been added to small and micro enterprises, with pertinence. In addition, the funds released from the "quasi directional reduction" of the county institutions in April are expected to reach 300 billion yuan.

< /p >

< p > the current downward pressure on the economy continues to exist. Whether the "directional reduction" will evolve into a full scale reduction has triggered widespread controversy in the market. Many institutions have called the central bank fully relaxed.

However, economists interviewed by this newspaper generally believe that more data support is needed for a comprehensive reduction.

< /p >

< p > "increasing the intensity of directional reduction measures does not mean a change in the orientation of prudent monetary policy."

Ji Zhihong, director of the central bank's financial market division, explained that "the central bank will weigh the whole consideration and use various tools to maintain moderate liquidity and maintain stable operation of the money market."

< /p >

< p > < strong > experts predict that the release of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > funds < /a > 300 billion < /strong > /p >

The executive meeting of the State Council on May 30th P put forward that the scale of money and credit and social financing should be kept reasonable.

We should increase the intensity of the "targeted reduction" measures, and appropriately reduce the reserve ratio for the banking financial institutions that meet the needs of structural adjustment and meet the market demand of the "three rural" and small and micro enterprises.

Expand support for small and micro enterprises refinancing and special financial debt scale.

< /p >

< p > for this "directional reduction", Ji Zhihong explained: "directional drop quasi" belongs to the positive incentive measures of financial support for the real economy. Compared with the "full scale reduction", it is more targeted and helps to put financial resources better into the "three rural", small and micro enterprises and other weak links.

< /p >

< p > "the content of this meeting of the State Council is actually a continuation of previous policies."

Wen bin, director of macroeconomic research at the International Finance Research Institute of the Bank of China, said that the rural financial institutions at the county level had been lowered to the right level.

< /p >

< p > since the 50 base points were lowered in May 18, 2012, the central bank has no comprehensive interest rate adjustment and deposit rate policy.

In April 25th this year, the central bank lowered the RMB deposit reserve ratio of the rural commercial banks in the county area by 2 percentage points. At the same time, it also lowered the RMB deposit reserve ratio of the county rural cooperative banks by 0.5 percentage points, which was called the "directional reduction" by the market.

< /p >

< p > at that time, the central bank announced that the RMB deposit reserve ratio of County commercial banks in rural areas has been reduced by 2 percentage points since April 25th, and the RMB deposit reserve ratio of county cooperative banks has been reduced by 0.5 percentage points.

After the adjustment, the agricultural and Commercial Bank of the county and the agricultural cooperative bank carried out the reserve ratio of 16% and 14% respectively. Among them, a certain proportion of the deposits were put into the county agricultural firms and the agricultural cooperative banks which were assessed locally, and the reserve ratio of 15% and 13% respectively.

< /p >

< p > Guo Tianyong, Professor of the school of finance, Central University of Finance and Economics, told the newspaper that since the State Council has not yet determined the magnitude of this "quasi directional reduction", it is expected to conduct a differentiated "directional reduction" for different institutions, and the reduction interval is expected to be 0.5~1 percentage points.

< /p >

< p > for this "directional drop quasi", Zong Liang said, "agriculture, countryside and farmers" and small and micro enterprises are relatively tight at present. Increasing the accuracy of the reduction will achieve better results.

"There is a certain amount of money will be effective, this time joined the small and micro enterprises, the release of funds should be larger than last time."

< /p >

< p > according to Zong Liang's estimate, there are about 100 trillion deposits in China now. The total amount of funds released is estimated to be 500 billion if the 0.5 percentage point reduction is made.

"The rate of directional reduction" has not been set yet, but with a strong pertinence, the rate of reduction will be greater.

Zong Liang believes that this "directional drop quasi" into small and micro enterprises, the release of funds is expected to exceed 100 billion, coupled with the April county "directional reduction", the comprehensive effect, almost 300 billion of the amount of money released.

< /p >

< p > < strong > < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > < < /a > > unlikely > /strong > /p >.

< p > due to the poor economic data in the past few months, the call for loosening the growth of monetary support has started again. Many agencies even called on the central bank to comprehensively reduce its accuracy.

< /p >

Liu Ligang, chief economist of the Greater China region of ANZ bank, said that despite the slowing economic growth and the increasing risk of deflation, the financing costs faced by Chinese enterprises are still at a high level. P

Therefore, relative to the economic fundamentals, China's monetary policy may have been too deflation.

< /p >

Zhou Xiaochuan, President of the central bank, said at the Wudaokou global financial forum last month that from the current situation, macroeconomic regulation and control must be determined and no large-scale stimulus policy will be adopted.

< /p >

< p > not long ago, not long ago, Wu Xiaoling, vice chairman of the finance and Economic Commission of the National People's Congress and former deputy governor of the central bank, also told a few media, including our newspaper, that the deposit reserve ratio has become a tool for hedging high foreign exchange reserves. The adjustment of the deposit rate will cause a great shock; however, the amount of foreign exchange occupied by China is huge, and the position that will be allowed to drop will have a great impact on the market, so the central bank will not fully adjust the deposit reserve ratio.

< /p >

< p > on the other hand, people's livelihood securities, Haitong Securities (600837, stock bar), and Anxin securities and other institutions also believe that the so-called policy fine-tuning does not mean the introduction of a comprehensive reduction tool.

< /p >

< p > "emphasize" directional reduction "means that the possibility of" comprehensive reduction "has declined.

"Directional reduction" and refinancing belong to the scope of structural adjustment, which is conducive to making banks' credit placement more targeted.

Guoxin Securities macroeconomic analyst Zhong Zhengsheng said.

< /p >

< p > Zong Liang told this newspaper that from the current situation, the possibility of a full reduction is unlikely.

On the one hand, the central bank has some hesitation. The industry is also worried that the overall reduction may bring some side effects.

At present, the "directional reduction" can play the role of structural adjustment, which is short board to adjust where.

< /p >

< p > the industry generally believes that specific measures for the future "directional reduction" will be introduced in June.

Li Zhiqiang, general manager and chief analyst of China Minsheng Bank Financial Market Research Center, told this newspaper that the relevant policies will be introduced in June. It can be predicted that "targeted reduction" is unlikely to target large banks or even national shareholding banks, and may target some policy banks.

< /p >

< p > Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shenyang Wanguo Securities Research Institute, said on the current financial situation to the first financial daily, the current financial and economic deviations are highlighted in two aspects: first, the price and interest rates of the financial market are low, and the general loan prices have not been effectively reduced; second, the total amount of funds is not tight, but the financing difficulties in some areas have yet to be resolved.

These two problems, through a comprehensive reduction of the "flood irrigation" method may not be able to effectively solve, so we have adopted a more targeted "directional reduction."

< /p >

< p > Li Huiyong believes that it is hard to see the full scale reduction in the short term.

Because the overall reduction is the main policy of macroeconomic policy. Only when the current economic policy is ineffective or has little effect will it be possible to conduct a comprehensive reduction.

Because the monetary policy effect usually has 3 months lag period, 3 months later, we can observe the three quarter economic data.

< /p >