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The Recent Rebound In Gem Is Hot And Scattered.

2014/6/12 8:39:00 36

from the previous meso data, we can see that the negative impact brought by the real estate "a href=" http://www.91se91.com "investment" /a "downward continues to spread to the huge real estate industry chain. Cement, steel and coal prices continue to fall, then these industries will enter the off-season, and the trend of the chain will deteriorate further. In addition, the sales volume of excavators closely related to real estate investment declined by 31% in May, and the negative growth rate was further expanded (-20% in April). 
 < img border= "0" align= "center" alt= "" src= "" /uploadimages/201406/12/20140612084849_sj.JPG "/" < > > "
 but there have also been some positive signs in the last two weeks: first, the expected increase in PMI data in May, and two in the late May, when the growth rate of electricity generation exceeded expectations (6.5%, 3.5%). The emergence of these signals gave investors the expectation that the economy has "stabilized", and under this expectation, the growth stocks represented by the growth enterprise board rebounded significantly in the past two weeks. According to the survey, most investors now think that this year, we do not expect the economy to recover. But as long as we can stabilize and stabilize the market under the power of policy adjustment, the market environment will be the same as last year. The growth stocks related to the spanformation will continue to show, and the market will again deduce the structural market. 
Is p really the same as last year? We put forward some different views from two aspects: the basic environment and the characteristics of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > market < /a >. 
 1, from the meso basic environment, the biggest difference between this year and last year is the prosperity direction of the real estate industry chain. This issue is controversial and variable, so we do not want to get entangled in this problem, just focus on real estate sales data. The fundamentals of 2013 are very stable. The GDP growth rate is fluctuating between 7.6%-7.7%. This "stock economy" pattern has led investors to abandon the traditional industries without elastic space and instead chase the growth stocks representing the direction of spanformation and long-term imagination. Last year, the reason why the economy could remain stable was that the strength of real estate investment and the weakness of manufacturing investment offset each other. But this year when real estate investment and manufacturing investment are coming down, the "stock economy" may be broken down. 
 but we find that once the real estate issue is discussed with investors, the dispute will be very large. Because real estate investment depends on sales, and sales trends are hard to analyze by conventional supply and demand structure (because the decision to demand buyers' expectations is very difficult to control). Now, some people think that real estate sales will stabilize in the near future. Some people think it is the three quarter. Some people think that the end of the year is very controversial, but it is difficult to verify immediately. Therefore, we are now facing such a dilemma: we all know that real estate sales are the core variables that affect market trends and styles, but this factor is variable and unpredictable. Under such circumstances, although we are pessimistic about the real estate industry chain, we do not want to argue too much about dissident investors. If the year-on-year growth rate of real estate sales can rise steadily for two consecutive months, the growth rate will exceed the seasonality. At that time, we will naturally consider adjusting the prudent viewpoint. 
 2, from the perspective of market characteristics, there is a big difference between this year and last year: the contrast between value growth stocks and emerging growth stocks continues to widen. The internal rotation of emerging growth stocks also appears too fast, rather than "structural market" rather than "restlessness". 
 first, the new growth stocks represented by the gem last year and the value growth stocks represented by "high quality white horse" continued to defeat the big market index, reflecting the firm expectation of investors for economic spanformation. But this year, although the gem has rebounded two times (one is before and after the Spring Festival, one is the last half a month), but the performance of value growth stocks has continued to languish. It can be seen that the "growth stocks" have already split up. The high growth of certainty has been abandoned, and the market has only pursued stories and themes that can not be falsified. 
 secondly, last year's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > gem > /a > index has reached a new high. The supporting force behind it is the continuous rotation of the subdivision industry. Environmental protection, mass media, medical treatment, software and LED have been rising steadily. But in recent half a month, the hot spot of the gem rebounding process is very scattered, and there is no continuity. Almost all emerging industries have had a rebound since May, but the rally time is usually only one week, and even the first five of many industries rose by five before the first second weeks. This market feature is not similar to that of last year's structural market, but rather a shadow of this year's "spring restlessness". Since it is "restless", then the value of participation is very small. Instead, we should consider reducing the position while rebounding. 
 in conclusion, our conclusion is that it is difficult to have a sustained structural market before real estate sales are confirmed to be stable. The recent rebound in the growth enterprise market is just a "restlessness" which occurs in some short term good data disturbance. The hot spots are scattered and not strong enough. Therefore, the participation value is not big. Instead, we can consider reducing the position while taking advantage of the rebound. On the other hand, by the drag of real estate investment, most of the traditional cyclical industries have entered the profit downlink cycle this year. Undervaluation is not attractive without profit support, so it is not recommended to buy. From the defensive point of view, we can consider the stable consumption of consumer goods, such as food processing, liquor, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_f.asp" > dress < /a > home textiles.