Analysis On The Change Of Cotton Supply Under The New Policy Pattern

< p > for the international a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > supply pattern and price, the impact of China's cotton policy is mainly reflected in the following aspects. < /p >
< p > 1, the increase of China's national cotton reserves has made the end of global cotton inventories grow rapidly. < /p >
< p > 2, although China's imports have some positive effects on the international market, the downstream demand is weak and China's stock of state reserves has suppressed international cotton prices. < /p >
< p > 3, and the proportion of cotton in China's import market has changed. India, Australia and Brazil have the most obvious increase in China's cotton exports. The proportion of cotton in the United States accounts for less than a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" and imports less than /a. < /p >
The demand transfer caused by < p > 4 and high cotton price has increased cotton imports from other countries and regions outside China. < /p >
< p > the transformation and influence of < < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > policy > /a >. According to the report, the changes of the new policy include: adjusting the price of throwing and storing, implementing direct price compensation in Xinjiang and controlling imports. Since April, the drop in the price of dumping and storage and the lower quota of imported cotton have led to a significant reduction in the cost of cotton production. < /p >
Under the influence of P, cotton prices in September are likely to fall, but there may be differences after the fall. The main differences include whether the country will act when prices fall too much, the cost of planting cotton farmers, the dumping and closing of transactions in the next few months, and the changes in domestic and foreign spreads. < /p >
< p > although according to the analysis of target price and reserve price, the total amount of direct subsidy provided by the state is about 14 billion yuan. However, the yellow box policy under the WTO framework is that as long as WTO member countries do not exceed the total production value of agricultural products (5% of total agricultural output) and 10% of developing countries, there is no need to reduce domestic support. < /p >
< p > the report concludes that although the different policies of the state guiding the market after the implementation of the direct subsidy policy may lead to divergence in market prices, the overall annual cotton price will have a higher probability of recovery, but the rate of recovery may be limited. < /p >
< p > China's domestic price decline and the control of imported cotton are bad for the international market, but cyclical activity will still exist. < /p >
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