The Rate Of Inflow Of Hot Money Has Slowed Sharply.

< p > statistical data released by the State Administration of foreign exchange on 16 may show that in May 2014, the bank settled 874 billion 300 million yuan (equivalent to 141 billion 900 million US dollars), selling 850 billion 200 million yuan (equivalent value of 137 billion 900 million US dollars), and selling foreign exchange surplus by 24 billion 100 million yuan (equivalent 3 billion 900 million US dollars).

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< p > this is the bank's foreign exchange settlement data since August last year, a surplus for tenth consecutive months, but the difference has been four consecutive months down.

In the first four months of this year, the favorable balance of bank sales and sales amounted to 447 billion 500 million yuan (equivalent to 73 billion 300 million US dollars), 279 billion 600 million yuan (equivalent 45 billion 700 million US dollars), 246 billion 500 million yuan (equivalent 40 billion 200 million US dollars) and 59 billion 700 million yuan (equivalent 9 billion 700 million US dollars).

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< p >, which means that the difference between sales and foreign exchange decreased significantly after the sharp decrease in April. The cross-border capital inflow slowed sharply in China.

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< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > RMB > /a > expectation of exchange rate appreciation is weakened. < /strong > /p >

< p > analysis shows that the favorable balance of foreign exchange settlement and sale of banks has declined sharply, reflecting the willingness of market participants to increase their willingness to hold foreign exchange and weaken their willingness to settle foreign exchange. The main reason behind this is that the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is expected to weaken and the expectation of devaluation is expected.

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< p > foreign exchange settlement by banks means the settlement of foreign exchange by designated foreign exchange banks for customers and themselves, and < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > foreign exchange business < /a >.

The difference between banks' foreign exchange and foreign exchange sales will be bought and sold through interbank foreign exchange market, which is one of the main sources of foreign exchange reserves in China, but it is not equal to the increase or decrease of foreign exchange reserves in the same period.

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< p > Liu Dongliang, senior analyst of China Merchants Bank's financial market department, believes that there are two main reasons for the decrease in the sales surplus in May: first, the low level of the RMB in May, and the market participants are not eager to settle foreign exchange, resulting in a significant reduction in the settlement volume; two, the central bank has reduced the normalization intervention in the exchange market.

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< p > since mid February, the RMB has changed significantly to the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "dollar" /a > exchange rate appreciation.

The effective exchange rate of RMB has depreciated by 3.02% from 1 to April this year, while the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB has also fallen by 2.67%.

Entering the May, although the RMB exchange rate has been stable overall, the market depreciation is still strong, and the exchange rate is at a low level. The market players are more inclined to hold the exchange to wait and see.

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< p > foreign exchange settlement data are closely related to the exchange rate expectations of enterprises and residents.

From the data of forward sale and sale of bank customers, the net settlement in May was 5 billion 300 million yuan, far below the 154 billion 800 million yuan, 139 billion yuan, 16 billion 500 million yuan and 9 billion 100 million yuan from 1 to April, indicating that the market's expectation of RMB appreciation was significantly weakened.

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< p > < strong > the net inflow pattern of cross-border capital has not changed. < /strong > < /p >

< p > analysis shows that with the weakening of the expectation of RMB depreciation and the stabilization of domestic economy, the surplus of foreign exchange holdings and bank sales and sales will probably rise again.

Since June, the RMB has recovered from the previous unilateral devaluation.

In the week of from June 9th to 13th, the yuan rose to a new high of two and a half weeks against the dollar.

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< p > despite the sharp drop in foreign exchange settlement data, the pattern of cross-border capital inflows has not changed.

Guan Tao, director of the balance of Payments Division of the foreign exchange bureau, said that in the medium to long term, as the balance of payments basically tended to be balanced, the market believed that the RMB exchange rate basically entered a balanced and reasonable level, and that the two-way fluctuation trend of the exchange rate increased, which would inhibit the risk free arbitrage activities.

In addition, there are still many unstable and uncertain factors in the world. The two-way fluctuation of cross-border capital has become a new normal.

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< p > data show that between 2014 and May, the bank accumulated a total of 49621 billion RMB (equivalent to 809 billion 200 million US dollars), accumulating total sales of 39046 billion yuan (equivalent value of 636 billion 300 million US dollars), accumulating a total of 10575 billion yuan (equivalent value of 172 billion 900 million US dollars) in foreign exchange settlement and sales.

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< p > May 2014, domestic banks had 16589 yuan (RMB $269 billion 100 million) in foreign-related income and 15309 yuan (equivalent 248 billion 400 million US dollars) in foreign payments, and the foreign exchange receipts and payments amounted to 128 billion yuan (equivalent 20 billion 800 million US dollars).

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From P to 2014, from 1 to May, a total of 82931 billion RMB yuan (equivalent to 13519 billion US dollars) was generated from the bank's behalf. The total external payment was 78517 billion yuan (equivalent to 12799 billion US dollars), and the accumulated foreign payment balance was 441 billion 400 million yuan (equivalent 72 billion US dollars).

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