Three Quarter China'S Economic Stabilization Trend Is Expected To Consolidate

< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > economic stabilization > /a > the situation is basically established < /strong > /p >

< p > the foundation of endogenous economic growth is gradually consolidated.

On the one hand, the situation of domestic demand is weakening.

Since the two quarter, the new orders index has continued to rise, reaching 52.8% in June, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

In the two quarter, the new order index averaged 52.1%, 1.4 percentage points higher than the first quarter.

On the other hand, economic vitality has been enhanced.

Under the influence of various preferential policies that actively support the development of enterprises, the overall production and economic situation of enterprises is stable and good.

The PMI index of large enterprises remained stable or slightly higher than 50%; the PMI index of medium-sized enterprises rose to more than 50%, while the PMI index of small enterprises is still below 50%, but the trend is basically stable.

In June, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > large enterprises < /a > PMI index rose by 0.6 percentage points, the PMI index of small and medium enterprises dropped slightly from the off-season.

The level of enterprise efficiency is basically stable.

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< p > external demand tends to improve.

The new export orders index continued to rise in recent months, rising to more than 50% in June, reaching 50.3%. Especially in Guangdong Province, a major export province of China, the new export orders index of manufacturing industry rose 5 and 6 in February and February respectively, especially 52.1% and 51.6% respectively.

These data reflect the initial results of policies and measures to promote stable growth of foreign trade, and external demand tends to improve.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > market supply and demand < /a > relationship is getting better and price is stabilized.

The production index and the new order index of the manufacturing PMI index were evenly above 52% in the two quarter, the average production index was 52.8%, the new order index averaged 52.1%, and the two gap narrowed from an average of 2.1 percentage points in the first quarter to 0.7 percentage points.

Sustained and weak market prices showed signs of a steady rise as supply and demand improved.

The purchase price index rose to 50.1%, the first time this year it has risen to over 50%.

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< p > real economic activity is steadily rising.

In June, the production index reached 53%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month, which is 1 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

The average in the two quarter was 52.8%, which was basically flat in the same quarter.

Enterprise procurement increased significantly and purchasing volume index increased.

The index has remained above 52% in recent months, the highest level since this year.

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< p > economic structure continues to optimize.

In the two quarter, the new orders index and business activity index of the service industry increased significantly.

The average values were 53.8% and 51.2% respectively, compared with 1 percentage points in the same quarter.

Producer services are rising notably.

In the two quarter, the average business activity index of producer services was 56.6%, higher than 4.7 percentage points in the first quarter, and the average new orders index was 53.3%, higher than 2.9 percentage points in the first quarter.

The accelerated development of producer services is conducive to promoting innovation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry.

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< p > the employment situation has stabilized steadily.

In June, the employment index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 48.6%, the most obvious increase this year.

From the perspective of enterprises of different sizes, the index of employees in large, medium and small enterprises generally increased, especially in small businesses, and the increase was 0.8 percentage points. The main role of small businesses in attracting employment is outstanding.

The changing trend of employee index reflects the gradual stabilization of the economic trend and the gradual emergence of the role of employment.

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The above two aspects are closely related. In the same quarter, the linkage and direction change in the same quarter is a positive signal in the economic operation. It reflects that the cumulative effect of steady growth has already appeared, and the trend of economic stabilization is basically established. P

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< p > < strong > regulation still needs to maintain a certain strength < /strong > < /p >.

< p > at present, a series of steady growth policies and measures are still being released. In June, the executive session of the State Council also deployed a comprehensive three-dimensional pportation corridor to build the Yangtze River economic belt. The discussion adopted the "medium and long term plan for the development of the logistics industry". It decided to simplify the rate of levying the VAT general taxpayer and lighten the burden of the enterprises, and determined the policies and measures to promote the industrial pfer and the adjustment of the key industrial layout.

In order to expand the credit scale of commercial banks and relieve the pressure of financial strain, the CBRC issued a notice in June 30th to adjust the deposit loan ratio of commercial banks from July 1st.

Some of the policies that have been introduced in the early stage, together with some new policies that are still being launched, will have a superposition effect, and will further play a role in the second half of the year to consolidate the foundation of economic stability.

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< p > from the PMI index of manufacturing industry as the leading indicator of economy, the two quarter has continued to rise, indicating that the three quarter economic stabilization trend is expected to further consolidate.

But in the short term, the economic recovery is still facing constraints.

First, economic growth momentum needs to be consolidated.

From the perspective of demand, the adjustment of the real estate industry is continuing, and it has a certain effect of suppressing the growth of investment and consumption.

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< p > two, economic vitality needs to be strengthened.

From the perspective of enterprises as the main body of economic activities, production and operation of enterprises are still more difficult, facing such problems as tight funds, rising costs, low efficiency and so on.

In particular, the operation of small and micro enterprises has not changed significantly.

The PMI index of small businesses is still below 50%, and the recovery is not obvious.

Enterprises are expected to be more cautious.

Although the expected index of enterprise production and operation activities remained at a high level, there was a fluctuation.

In recent months, both manufacturing and non manufacturing industries have dropped.

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In the face of this situation, macroeconomic regulation and control should not be slackened. We need to maintain certain efforts to further consolidate the foundation of economic stability and ensure that the economic operation is in a reasonable range. P

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< p > first, we must adhere to the combination of lengths and objectives in the goal orientation.

The long-term goal is to "pform the way and adjust the structure" as the core, focusing on promoting economic pformation and upgrading.

The short-term goal is to maintain the stability of the current economic operation.

On the one hand, we should manage and guide social expectations well.

To prevent the bad expectation that the economy will continue to descend in the society, it will adversely affect the investment, production and business activities of enterprises, resulting in policy failure and slow start of the market.

On the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen motivation and increase vitality.

Strong power is mainly to cultivate new growth points and strengthen the driving force of economic growth.

In the period of economic readjustment and pformation, growth rate is inevitable, but not overall contraction.

In the process of gradual retreat of traditional bright spots, new hot spots should emerge to form relay and prevent faults.

Macroeconomic regulation and control must focus on lighting up new economic highlights and activating new economic hot spots, forming a lively situation of "regional economic linkage, upgrading and upgrading of traditional industries, and connecting new industries".

To increase vitality is to actively support the development of enterprises from two aspects of "deregulation" and "lightening the burden".

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< p > secondly, in the choice of policy, we should pay attention to the use of various policy tools, and choose the fulcrum to make efforts from various aspects to pry the overall situation of economic development.

We must stick to directional control and precise effort.

This is conducive to enhancing policy pertinence, improving the efficiency and effectiveness of policy implementation, and promoting structural adjustment. On the other hand, it is also conducive to flexible adjustment of regulatory policies in order to make progress and retreat in the light of changes in the economic situation.

We should focus on improving the market environment, focusing on the self regulatory role of market forces, reducing policy dependence, and promoting the formation of market self-regulation mechanism and economic endogenous growth mechanism.

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< p > in addition, macroeconomic regulation and control should strengthen departmental coordination and policy support in the implementation of policies, focusing on the actual implementation effect.

If we combine these two aspects together, we will have no problem in completing the target year.

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