Textile And Clothing Consumption Needs To Find Other Ways To Pull Cotton Prices Limited.

< p > from mid June to early July, the contract price of zhengmian 1501 fell from the highest 15655 yuan / ton to 14310 yuan / ton, with a total decline of 8.6%.

Facing the approaching cotton price that is approaching the cost line of cotton planting, the market participants' disagreement over the current cotton price is increasing, and the market position has expanded from 160 thousand hands two months ago to the current 330 thousand hand.

I believe that in the medium to long term, the fall in cotton prices is a reflection of the return of prices to the market.

In the absence of obvious improvement in consumption, short-term supply and demand conflicts have triggered a rebound, but the long bear road has not ended.

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< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp > > textile > /a > replaced by cotton consumption > /strong > /p >

"P >" from a large increase in cotton prices in the year 2010/2011, the domestic textile cotton consumption began to be replaced by chemical fiber.

The policy of collecting and storing the market for 3 years and the quota system of imported cotton have kept the domestic cotton prices high and the price gap between the inside and outside markets widened.

Some textile quilts are replaced by imported cotton yarns, and some textile orders are directly pferred to Southeast Asian countries.

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< p > from the perspective of imported cotton yarn, low count yarn has taken an absolute advantage in the domestic cotton market, and imported cotton yarn products have developed from low count yarn to medium high count yarn.

In addition, the source of imports has also developed from traditional India and Pakistan to Vietnam, Indonesia and even Mexico and the United States.

Roughly estimated, the direct import of cotton yarn has nearly 1 million tons of domestic cotton consumption.

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< p > China's textile and garment export market, though the textile and clothing exports remained small growth from 1 to May, the growth rate dropped significantly.

In addition, the main export market - imports of cotton products in the United States, in 2013, the number of imported cotton products in the United States dropped by 14% compared with 2010, and the number of imports from China dropped by 18%.

The market share of Chinese cotton products in the United States dropped by 1.7 percentage points to 34.6%, and the market share was grabbed by Vietnam, Bangladesh, Turkey and other countries.

In view of this, China's cotton textiles and garments have not improved significantly in terms of total export volume and market competitiveness.

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< p > < strong > textile and clothing consumption slightly improved. < /strong > < /p >

< p > at present, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has been reduced from the highest 6000 yuan / ton to 2000 yuan / ton.

According to the price of ICE12 cotton contract and the base price of 8 cents / pound, the price of imported cotton and zhengmian 1501 are close to 14500 yuan / ton, and the difference between the inside and outside cotton price is further narrowed.

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< p > from the consumption point of view, the historical inventory of all kinds of clothing in China was basically completed in the first half of this year. The growth of sales of clothing sales in large shopping malls, which reflects domestic sales, also increased from the lowest negative growth at the end of 2013 to a single digit increase.

However, the short term effect of this change on cotton prices may still be limited. First, the price of polyester staple in China is less than 10000 yuan, and the price of viscose staple fiber is about 11800 yuan / ton, at 17200 yuan / ton, and the spot cotton price in the vicinity is calculated. The price difference between cotton and polyester is 7700 yuan / ton, and the difference between cotton and viscose is 5400 yuan / ton.

Even with the futures price of 14500 yuan / ton, the price difference between cotton and polyester is still close to 5000 yuan / ton, and the difference between cotton and viscose staple is nearly 2700 yuan / ton, and the relative advantage of cotton is still not obvious.

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< p > however, with the improvement of chemical fiber production technology and technology, the wearability of chemical fiber products is obviously improved, and the cost of household chemical fiber products at the same price can be lower.

If a small amount of functional chemical fiber is added to the fabric, a higher price and profit can be obtained.

Under the temptation of profit, textile and garment enterprises are more willing to choose chemical fiber as raw material.

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< p > if cotton wants to regain its lost market share, it needs more competitive price ratio than chemical fiber products. This also determines that the cotton price will not return to market price overnight, and it will remain for a long time in the low range, in order to arouse consumers' enthusiasm for cotton flower.

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To sum up, the short term supply of cotton market affects the fluctuation rhythm of cotton prices, but the cotton market needs to be changed from bear to cattle, which needs the improvement of the cotton consumption market. "P"

In the case of no obvious improvement in the consumer market, the market trend of low cotton prices is hard to change.

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