In The Second Half Of The Year, Two Main Investment Lines For Textile And Apparel Industry

Retail terminal stabilizes, and the two quarter is better than expected. Total retail sales of social consumer goods clothing From the point of view of the situation, since April, the growth rate in two consecutive months has been better than expected. In May, the retail sales volume of clothing industry increased by 11.7% over the same period last year, and the retail sales volume of clothing industry increased by 9.7% over the same period in May. In May, the sales volume of clothing commodities of hundreds of key large enterprises increased by 5.4% over the same period last year. In May, the sales volume of clothing in 50 key large enterprises increased by 5.2% over the same period last year, the highest monthly growth rate this year. Overall, after two years of adjustment, the retail sales data in May improved. Spin Apparel retail terminal stabilizes bottom.

Traditional patterns and channels of clothing are still under pressure, innovation and transformation enterprises perform better, and men's clothing at parity still keeps high growth. From the data of China Daily, we can see: (1) all of the companies whose growth rate is above 20% is model innovation or channel innovation. For example, Hai Lan's home, "high performance price ratio + direct business mode" is expected to keep the high growth of China Daily's 50% and become the leader of the textile and garment sector; for example, Pathfinder, the growth rate of the outdoor industry is in line with expectations, and the rapid growth of the electricity supplier channel has led to a faster growth in performance. For example, YOUNGOR's investment earnings in the two quarter have led to a better performance of the newspaper. (2) the growth rate of 0-20% falls mostly in textile manufacturing and home textile enterprises: benefiting from the warming of orders, the performance of textile manufacturing enterprises has maintained steady growth; after more than a year's adjustment, the home textile industry has been revised and is expected to achieve a resumption of growth throughout the year. (3) more than 0% of the growth rate is brand. Clothes & Accessories Traditional brand clothing has a high price performance ratio, low turnover and high homogeneity, and its cost performance is still poor. Especially for high-end clothing, the pressure of performance is still high.

　　我們預計,紡織服裝行業重點公司2014 年中報情況如下:(1)增速高于20%的公司有5 個:海瀾之家(增速50%+,超預期)、探路者(增速25%,符合預期)、雅戈爾(增速25%,超預期)、上海家化(增速25%,符合預期)、嘉麟杰(增速30%,超預期);(2)增速在0-20%之間的公司有9 個: 報喜鳥(增速5%,符合預期)、森馬服飾(增速15%,符合預期)、羅萊家紡(增速10%,符合預期)、富安娜(增速15%,符合預期)、夢潔家紡(增速10%,符合預期)、魯泰A(增速15%,符合預期)、華孚色紡(增速20%,符合預期)、華紡股份(增速20%,符合預期)、百隆東方(增速5%,符合預期);(3)增速在0%以下的公司有5 個:七匹狼(增速-40%,低于預期)、九牧王(增速-20%,符合預期)、卡奴迪路(增速-30%,低于預期)、搜于特(增速-30%,低于預期)、朗姿股份(增速-30%,低于預期)、奧康國際(增速-20%,符合預期)、美邦服飾(增速-15%,符合預期)。

Investment suggestion: the mode of parity consumption is rising, and the wind of innovation and transformation has been blown up. From the perspective of the forecast, we can see that the textile and garment industry has not been significantly warmer and the plate adjustment is more. We believe that the main line of investment in the second half of the year can be seen around two points: (1) pay close attention to the companies with better Fundamentals: especially the clothing brands such as Hai Lan, whose "high price ratio + direct run" mode has made them feel like a fish in the water under the increasingly rational trend of consumption. Looking at the history of clothing in Japan and the United States, the economic slowdown and the increasingly rational consumption habits of consumers may lead to big market value clothing giants. (2) paying close attention to the companies that are actively transforming can be divided into two ways: first, companies wishing to extend the industrial chain vertically, such as Semir clothing, are striking to build up the children's industrial chain based on the great advantages of children's clothing business; for example, the Pathfinder, the acquisition of "green field network", trying to build a clear thinking system for the household ecosystem, and at the same time, form a strong complementary and synergistic effect with the outdoor products industry. Second, cross border cross-border mergers and acquisitions need to transform or expand business, such as Lukang technology acquisition century long film and television company, Maison cultural acquisition technology, Jialin Jie purchase dish software, Kaiser shares acquisition cool cow interaction. In addition, we should pay more attention to the lower PB and more cash companies, such as the seven wolves and nine herdmen. To sum up, we continue to recommend the men's clothing giant, Hai Lan home, which is a model innovation, recommends Semir clothing that is in the process of improving children's related industry chain. It recommends that the home textile industry leader Luo Lai home textile and fuanna order will be turned to be expected to achieve restorative growth.