US Cotton Is Still Falling, And Zheng Cotton Should Not Lightly Talk About The Bottom.

< p > < strong > < a > href= > http:// > www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > Mei cotton < /a > still falling down > /strong > /p >

< p > June 30th, the US Department of Agriculture released the 2014/2015 annual planting area report.

The report shows that the actual planting area of the United States cotton in 2014/2015 is about 11 million 369 thousand acres, an increase of 9.2% over the same period last year, an increase of 2.4% over the 11 million 101 thousand acre estimate of the US Department of agriculture's March report of planting area.

Among them, the area of upland cotton was 11 million 191 thousand acres, an increase of 9.7% over the same period, and 178 thousand acres of Pima cotton, a decrease of 11.4% over the same period last year.

This has eliminated the positive effect of the previous dry weather. The ICE cotton started to fall in the second round, and has been innovating repeatedly.

As of July 7th, the ICE cotton main contract price in December reached a minimum of 70 cents / pound, the lowest in nearly two years.

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< p > strong > a href= "http://? www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > inventory < /a > pressure < /strong > /p >

< p > for global cotton, inventory problem is in the first place.

According to the US Department of agriculture's global cotton supply and demand report in June, global cotton production in 2014/2015 was 25 million 239 thousand tons, consumption was 24 million 448 thousand tons, and final inventory was 22 million 364 thousand tons.

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< p > from the chart below, we can see that although the output of the global a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > has been decreasing, the end of the world cotton inventory has been at a historical high level, and the inventory consumption ratio has exceeded 90%.

In addition, compared with global supply and demand data in May, China's cotton futures inventory increased by 163 thousand tons in 2013/2014.

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< p > it can be seen that the huge inventory is not only a problem faced by domestic cotton, but a problem that needs to be faced in the global cotton market.

The future cotton market is still on the road to inventory, and now the domestic and foreign cotton consumption, the road to inventory is still long.

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< p > < strong > there is still no sign of improvement in the domestic economic situation < /strong > /p >

After P's short rebound in May, the consumer price index (CPI) again dropped in June.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national consumer price index rose 2.3% in the first half of the year, far below the target of 3.5%.

The same as CPI fall, industrial data is still in the doldrums, and the producer price (PPI) of industrial producers in June dropped by 1.1% compared with the same period last year.

From all kinds of data, the downward pressure on China's economy is still large.

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< p > < strong > > < /strong > < /p >.

< p > at present, the cotton market purchase and storage policy is replaced by direct subsidy policy, and cotton prices will gradually return to market. Then the huge inventory pressure and the shrinking of downstream consumption will make the new cotton futures in the new year vulnerable in a short time.

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< p > from the disk, a large number of speculative capital flows into the Zheng cotton market. At present, there are obvious indications of empty control.

However, as the price falls to the cost, the price of zhengmian 1501 contract will be very limited.

Later, attention should be paid to changes in positions. If the position is still increasing, the downtrend will continue. Creating new lows is only a matter of time.

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